Model Chat And Moods

[Totoro]

"this is more likely towards the end of next week into next weekend."

That seems to have been a reoccurring theme for those waiting for a snow event from this particular cold spell (and away from Kent of course!). Always just over the metaphorical horizon!

Agreed, the 'jam' is nearly always a week away.

As for this forthcoming 'event' early next week, I'm also not convinced of any widespread snow, especially in the south and the west where you'll be 'lucky' to see a bit of sleet.

[donelly]

The Met Office have upgraded their weather warning charts ---- severe weather warning for a lot of the country on Tuesday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[locneverstop]

Right I am a huge novice, but with JH's help yesterday I've got a base knowledge of forecasting snow.

Over the last few GFS runs I've seen a definite trend away from a snow event for any UK region (By snow event I mean disruptive snowfall), yet now the MetO have issued a warning for the entire West Midlands. It's MBY, but as much as I'd like to, I can't see that happening.

Are MetO going with a different model that I haven't looked at?

[Winter Monsoon]

Gah..... well thats a downgrade it was marginal top begin with yesterday and the models have continued with that theme. Just like the easterly that didnt materialise now this even has been downgraded. Not that cold either. Looks like rain for the most and the lucky few will get snow up here in the north but with temps like these its gonna be gone within the day. Oh well i think maybe this was our last chance this winter next month heralds spring. Itll probably be too warm by then to have lasting/lying snow

[MR EXTREMES]

i think everyones given up lol.

i sopose i can understand why i really think im sick off models right now,

but i just cant stop hoping just for one more wintry blast across the country surely its possible.

or is it.

mind you robert was convinced this morning where in for a right old event i was not sure 3 days ago im certainly not convinced now lol.

Edited February 12, 2010 by badboy657

[Bristawl Si]

i think everyones given up lol.

i sopose i can understand why i really think im sick off models right now,

but i just cant stop hoping just for one more wintry blast across the country surely its possible.

or is it.

mind you robert was convinced this morning where in for a right old event i was not sure 3 days ago im certainly not convinced now lol.

Think you could be right there badboy.

If we go back about 9/10 days the models were showing a more severe cold spell with possibility of snow for many, then it became clear only snow showers for the East, the Kent situ became more apparent last weekend, which actually happened last couple of days.

All in all there has been a constant downgrade - OK temps may have been a degree or so below the average, but nothing spectacular. This spell has been very disapppointing IMO.

I'm not looking forward to a mix of cold rain rather than snow as the models seem to be predicting for next week. I look for temps of freezing or just above during day with snow events (like early Jan), otherwise i'm not happy!

I'm starting to get to the position of wanting some early spring warmth - unless we can truly go back into the freezer with some proper snow. One thing that is constantly bugging me, even for this winter and last, is why we don't see the Channel Low make an appearance with widespread blizzards, especially for the south - it seems to have been on a 20 year holiday!

[robert]

From what I see of the 12z things are perfectly on track for exactly the kind of setup I expected. With a huge prolonged widespread snow event so close and upgrades that will follow in subsequent runs there is everything to play for.

I may view and interpret things in the models differently from some on here but my method looks flawless with everything falling into place.

[Chrissy]

From what I see of the 12z things are perfectly on track for exactly the kind of setup I expected. With a huge prolonged widespread snow event so close and upgrades that will follow in subsequent runs there is everything to play for.

I may view and interpret things in the models differently from some on here but my method looks flawless with everything falling into place.

How can you be so sure Robert?

[swfc]

From what I see of the 12z things are perfectly on track for exactly the kind of setup I expected. With a huge prolonged widespread snow event so close and upgrades that will follow in subsequent runs there is everything to play for.

I may view and interpret things in the models differently from some on here but my method looks flawless with everything falling into place.

Can you elaborate please.????.How can or will the model output change.Have all the computers gone mad.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Hi Robert, could you please explain your thoughts because Im just a learner on the model thread and it would be very interesting to read thankyou.

[full_frontal_occlusion]

From what I see of the 12z things are perfectly on track for exactly the kind of setup I expected. With a huge prolonged widespread snow event so close and upgrades that will follow in subsequent runs there is everything to play for.

I may view and interpret things in the models differently from some on here but my method looks flawless with everything falling into place.

Why not share those methods with us and why widespread snow is your conclusion?

ffO.

[mccormick]

“Connecting to Spirit”

with Spiritual Medium Robert Clarke

[Mac_SE]

From what I see of the 12z things are perfectly on track for exactly the kind of setup I expected. With a huge prolonged widespread snow event so close and upgrades that will follow in subsequent runs there is everything to play for.

I may view and interpret things in the models differently from some on here but my method looks flawless with everything falling into place.

Hi Robert

Is your method model related?

Thanks

[on the coast]

From what I see of the 12z things are perfectly on track for exactly the kind of setup I expected. With a huge prolonged widespread snow event so close and upgrades that will follow in subsequent runs there is everything to play for.

I may view and interpret things in the models differently from some on here but my method looks flawless with everything falling into place.

I like your confidence. This prolonged snow event is for where?

[aspire27]

From what I see of the 12z things are perfectly on track for exactly the kind of setup I expected. With a huge prolonged widespread snow event so close and upgrades that will follow in subsequent runs there is everything to play for.

I may view and interpret things in the models differently from some on here but my method looks flawless with everything falling into place.

Sorry Robert, but you have said these things before. Currently I can only see wet wet wet unless your in Scotland on a hill.

Looks like this winter will finish on a wet note.

[kent]

From what I see of the 12z things are perfectly on track for exactly the kind of setup I expected. With a huge prolonged widespread snow event so close and upgrades that will follow in subsequent runs there is everything to play for.

I may view and interpret things in the models differently from some on here but my method looks flawless with everything falling into place.

Hmmm I see the spirits are now reading the charts.

[andymusic]

Sorry Robert, but you have said these things before. Currently I can only see wet wet wet unless your in Scotland on a hill.

Looks like this winter will finish on a wet note.

and they came from scotland too!

[John London]

Sorry Robert, but you have said these things before. Currently I can only see wet wet wet unless your in Scotland on a hill.

Looks like this winter will finish on a wet note.

Do you think it's going to be wet?

[Upgrade]

I think we should just put our faith in Robert's spirit guide and hope for the mega snow event next week.

[Duane S.]

In the same way as there are a few wind up merchants on this forum predicting mild mild mild when the forecasts are seemingly saying otherwise, Robert appears to be of the opposite ilk.

I'm as blindly optimistic as the next person. Robert just keeps calling cold but never actually backs it up. Of course, it MAY well turn out to be colder and snowier than it is looking like it will do BUT, unless you are going to explain why you think it will happen Robert then it will just appeat to have been a lucky guess (should it occur).

[snowray]

In the same way as there are a few wind up merchants on this forum predicting mild mild mild when the forecasts are seemingly saying otherwise, Robert appears to be of the opposite ilk.

I'm as blindly optimistic as the next person. Robert just keeps calling cold but never actually backs it up. Of course, it MAY well turn out to be colder and snowier than it is looking like it will do BUT, unless you are going to explain why you think it will happen Robert then it will just appeat to have been a lucky guess (should it occur).

Problem with Robert's spirit guide forcasts is that he has come quite close a few times, some near misses too, but as with most mediums its always far too vague. Not that I'm ani, in fact I'm a believer to a certain extent in Spirit.

Widespead snowfall but where? What days? So if theres heavy snow around Newcastle next Tues and in North East Scotland on Weds morning would this be classified as a hit?

Come on Robert, spill the beans. What exactly are you proposing.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

metoffice unbelievably give most areas snow, an early advisory for tuesday, but cant see it, I think looking at models, for my area low down winter maybe over, although the odd frost possible

similar end to last winter where I saw no snow and very little frost after 9th Feb

Roberts forecasts fantasy, think JH maybe closer somehow,

Edited February 12, 2010 by mark forster 630

[kent]

Cmon, if Roberts spiritual forecasts happen on chance to be correct, just think of the commercial value re. new recruits.

[snowray]

Cmon, if Roberts spiritual forecasts happen on chance to be correct, just think of the commercial value re. new recruits.

Guess if he comes back on the 20th saying "told you so" and some places have had a couple of inches of snow by then, he might pick himself up a couple of new cutomers.

On the other hand, if the worst blizzard in 1000 years had just hit the UK (acording to the Mail), he find himself with the whole of Netweather as new clients.

Not a bad little bit of business.

[Jason T]

From what I see of the 12z things are perfectly on track for exactly the kind of setup I expected. With a huge prolonged widespread snow event so close and upgrades that will follow in subsequent runs there is everything to play for.

I may view and interpret things in the models differently from some on here but my method looks flawless with everything falling into place.

Well im backing ROBERT, With out a doubt watch the upgrades come in tomorrow and sunday. It was stated many times that this cold spell was due to kick in around the 14th it has been slow to start and it WILL be SLOW to end.