Model Chat And Moods

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just corrected your post

Fair point and can't really argue with it.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the cold North Sea temps aren't helping with the convection, but then again nor are the high daytime temperatures, and a significantly warmer sea would probably mean showers exclusively of rain and hail. Temperatures of 4-5C during the day and SSTs of 5C won't be helping matters, that's for certain!

Overnight should see more convection develop as temperatures will fall close to freezing, and as you say maybe more showers to come over East Anglia and the SE over the next few days or so. That said, there have been a few showers dotted around here in Norwich, interestingly quite a number of them being modest cumulus over the sea and sprouting up a little as they head south-westwards through Norfolk.

[PB22]

That said, there have been a few showers dotted around here in Norwich, interestingly quite a number of them being modest cumulus over the sea and sprouting up a little as they head south-westwards through Norfolk.

Yes, I've seen almost like a shower train passing northeast to southwest to the west of me for much of this afternoon, was interesting to watch!

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Be interesting to see if this will be our last shot (currently) at a cold spell with some snow before the winters out, going by the GFS all the wintry stuff will be further north after the weekend. Not sure how I will mark this winter in regards to other winters but obviously will be in the cold category but nothing untowards if we were still in the 80's although this is not the case for Scotland. Very similar I'd say to 1984/85 with 2 cold spells and snow, well in these parts.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Timmy H

[londonsnow]

excellent 12z from gfs. lots of potential there. just a little question, would the forecast output from the bbc etc be so obsessed with possible snowfall in kent, if kent was infact stornoway?

[peterf]

excellent 12z from gfs. lots of potential there. just a little question, would the forecast output from the bbc etc be so obsessed with possible snowfall in kent, if kent was infact stornoway?

not a chance

[kent]

For the last 4 years and being a snow lover I have tried to learn from the more experienced members on here but at the same time I have come to the conclusion I am running into a brick wall. Am I correct in assuming that the daily charts, ECM GFS etc are the same charts as viewed by all? Foe eg. If we were all reading from the same book then we would all reach the same conclusion. Which leads me to the next question. Why do you get comments from posters saying winter is over etc and the very next post says this is definitely an upgrade and its game on. Therefore its a fair assumption to assume that these charts are only a guesstimate as to what or what might not happen and is left to the individual with whatever means they have at their disposal to comment on. Then we have the, we need this to happen and this to go north etc. and so on. The conclusion is its all IF IF ONLY. Incidentally from my own limited knowledge of reading the charts I ventured to suggest nearly a week ago that I didnt see an easterly and this week would be a cold non affair and was beaten up by posters demanding to know where my information was coming from lol. People see what they want to happen on this site and its very misleading and I therefore applaud those that do not hopecast and show it for what it is. Nothing more than an educated guess with the latest output as a possible guide.

[Bolton67]

I bet TEITS has fainted looking at the ECM 12z.

[john mac]

What a relief that the ECM has improved, i am an optimist and even i was beginning to lose hope, plenty of cold heading our way on the ECM

[smarty81]

Certainly felt good out today working in the garden clearing some hedging to the bonfire, the sun made an appearance an I was down to just one fleece, felt quite pleasant Spring apparently comes 11 days earlier than 20 years ago according to BBC, despite this cold spell the first daffodills are now showing, and with the lighter evenings how nice to not have to take the dog until gone 5pm.

However water temperatures are very cold and this has put me off river fishing until we get a mild spell, the seasons close on March 14th so please all you cold weather nuts spare a thought for a poor angler and conjure up some mild weather soon, getting a bit 'twitchy. '

[loophole]

Am i correct in my observation that all 3 models look good for snow starved Ireland?

If they materialised that is

Edited February 9, 2010 by loophole

[DAVID SNOW]

excellent 12z from gfs. lots of potential there. just a little question, would the forecast output from the bbc etc be so obsessed with possible snowfall in kent, if kent was infact stornoway?

Hmmmm, how many people live in stornoway?

How many people,companies,schools, hospitals etc etc are in kent?

Relevant??

[Wilxy]

I would love to see one more cold and snowy spell before winter goes just hope that when the alantic systems start to try winning back we would see some decent snow from that but i also know what else that brings

[Liam J]

fantastic looking charts next week, worrying if you have to get about safely to work etc. but this is over a week away in fi and could all change at the drop of a hat, i understand the current cold spell is boring some what as it could have delivered much more, and we are looking ahead to more exciting times,

but there will be a few upset people if they believe the charts will verify as shown just now for next week, swings and roundabouts for the next 7 days to get there

Edited February 9, 2010 by james12

[kent]

Hope the pub run is not too drunk to get in bed with the ECM.

[Tom D]

Wow this winter has thrown up some memorable synoptic scenarios but it just seems to top them week on week! Confusion surrounds the detail for the weekend and thereafter at the moment, but there are promising trends for snow, especially in the north but not exclusively.

My word - after +144 is the sort of thing you usually see deep in FI (beyond +200)! Stunning.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[msx999]

looks like most of london is out of the equation for tomorrows snow...

[snowblizzard]

Is this the longest gap into between postings ever?! Come on guys and gals i was looking foward to your views on this mornings outputs

Could it be that most people are gutted about current evolution and have become fed-up with chasing something that just isn't going to happen?

We have seen so many cracking charts (mostly in FI!) during the past few weeks but none have actually verified!

Let's face it, most of the members on here are chasing dreams!

I've been watching the weather for more than 40 years and recently I've learnt so much (technical stuff) from this forum, it's so interesting and absolutely brilliant.

Unfortunately, the real 'winter' period is coming to an end. Solar activity will now start to effect the longevity of any frost or snow events. I don't think I can remember any lasting severe winter weather events in the South of England (except 1963) after February 14th.

However, there is still a good chance that we will see some short sharp snaps and further snowfalls before spring pops-up!

Sorry, this was a bit off topic.

Edited February 10, 2010 by snowblizzard

[KTtom]

Not much changed since yesterday really. Still a chance of snow in Kent tomorrow.

Beyond that the front moving south next week, snow on northern hills rain/sleet midlands south. Best chance of a decent snow event has to be via a trough moving up from the south later I would have thought, but no medel currently shows this.

[Damp and dreary]

Why don't you look yourself and give an opinion

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

I would embarrass myself and the whole 'longterm' Netweather comunity in general Mr Data, hence i dont post in this room often!

Is that Northerly still going to be slightly pushed to the West? Does it still look marginal for us down south? Does the north sea look like pepping up the showers at all for us tiny minority in the South East? Is that awful for me to be talking in a IMBY way?

[LomondSnowstorm]

I feel the northern hills thing is a bit conservative really, given uppers on pretty much all models look at least -6 or below across most of Scotland. Perhaps in northern England and northern Ireland things will turn out differently but in what way is this chart not suggestive of major lowland snowfall?

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100210/06/150/ukprec.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100210/06/147/ukpaneltemp.png

[Methuselah]

As the me's travelling to London next Tuesday night, I definitely DON'T want any more snow!! But I do fear Sod's Law!! :lol:

[Bobby]

Oh dear, seems like another potential cold spell is going pear shaped, still time to chang but not so optimistic now. Looks like normal British winter service has been resumed after the freak December/Jan - endlessly chasing rainbows in FI for any proper cold and snow.

[Solar Cycles]

Oh dear, seems like another potential cold spell is going pear shaped, still time to chang but not so optimistic now. Looks like normal British winter service has been resumed after the freak December/Jan - endlessly chasing rainbows in FI for any proper cold and snow.

Define normal British weather? What we encountered in Dec/Jan, was also normal British weather ( in winter that is )!!

[SP1986]

Define normal British weather? What we encountered in Dec/Jan, was also normal British weather ( in winter that is )!!

Mostly unsettled west based pattern, infrequent cold spells.

That's pretty much a normal pattern regardless of warming or cooling?

I think normal would be better labelled as 'most frequent average' though