Model Chat And Moods

[Optimus Prime]

I think normal would be better labelled as 'most frequent average' though

It's the 'Normal' British weather that makes me want to move out of this country lol...New Zealand...bliss.

[Optimus Prime]

Does anyone remember the snowy spell we got in early January across Midlands southwards? Low pressure driving down from the north and another low pressure developing to the south. The forecast 4 days away was saying more like rain for the south with most of the snow potential over the weekend.

http://sussexyorkie.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/copy-of-snow-january-2010-002.jpg

In the end most of us got the heaviest snowfall since 1962. 20cm-40cm. Snowed all evening, through the night into the next day and into the evening.

The setup was very similar.

Edited February 10, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[matty lfc]

Im also trying to learn off the model thread,which is fantastic,but you have to say that a lot of posters see a chart that is not particularly good for their area,beit London,Glasgow, Devon or Cardiff and they automatically write off the chart as downgrade etc.I'd love to see this thread offer a more general view of any interesting weather about to hit any region of the UK and perhaps save any localised negativity for the regional threads.

All in all,a superb website for anyone with the slightest interest in weather.

[Optimus Prime]

Im also trying to learn off the model thread,which is fantastic,but you have to say that a lot of posters see a chart that is not particularly good for their area,beit London,Glasgow, Devon or Cardiff and they automatically write off the chart as downgrade etc.I'd love to see this thread offer a more general view of any interesting weather about to hit any region of the UK and perhaps save any localised negativity for the regional threads.

All in all,a superb website for anyone with the slightest interest in weather.

I just ignore it. We had these discussion every winter. Even in early January which buried us in snow.

People have a tendancy to look at a glass half empty rather then half full and make out they know everything there is to know about the climate/science/biology in general. How wrong could they be? lol

[Tim Bland]

Does anyone remember the snowy spell we got in early January across Midlands southwards? Low pressure driving down from the north and another low pressure developing to the south. The forecast 4 days away was saying more like rain for the south with most of the snow potential over the weekend.

http://sussexyorkie.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/copy-of-snow-january-2010-002.jpg

In the end most of us got the heaviest snowfall since 1962. 20cm-40cm. Snowed all evening, through the night into the next day and into the evening.

The setup was very similar.

Agree. I remember the forecasts saying sleet / rain south of London and in the end cars where abandoned in Basingstoke etc. At least this time we have cold air in place before the event with low soil temps etc.

On the other hand it could go the way of the spell just before new year with heavy cold rain. Thats the beauty of the weather! Will have to wait and see.

[galba]

Monday's Fax chart looks 'busy' - any snow in there ?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

[MisfitDog3]

Yes, some VERY interesting developments on this mornings runs. It's also interesting that I have heard 3 different forecasters put their necks on the line this morning and go for widespread and 'disruptive' snow next week. Why would they do that if it was rerally that marginal?

[Southender]

Now the low decides to just sit there for 24 hours over SW Ireland.

Then it decides to move S.West a little, allowing an Easterly to come in!!

Edited February 11, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[kar999]

Pretty good run so far for Wales/Midlands for the simple reason the band of snow arrives during the night. In these marginal situations you ideally need any fronts to arrive during the night if you want to see a good covering of snow. For E areas its interresting to see the colder pool just to the E.

I'm still learning how to read the models so what timeframe are you refering to here please?

Thanks

Kar999

[Southender]

Well, well. So the low goes further SW, then decides to swing back in bringing milder conditions in FI?!

It almost does a complete loop of the UK!!

Edited February 11, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[smhouston]

Well that GFS run looks extremely good to me from a purely biased viewpoint! I'd be right in the firing line if the predictions were correct

To be honest I wouldn't mind the milder air coming back in after (aslong as the snow got a couple of days to lay around) as it would be nice to have some warm weather....we haven't had anything for like 2/3 months now! lol

[Snow Angel]

Well, well. So the low goes further SW, then decides to swing back in bringing milder conditions in FI?!

It almost does a complete loop of the UK!!

I have been watching the model chat for some time and I am confused It seems that as soon as it becomes within a relaible time frame "Nailed On" the chat stops when it would be relaible data and moves to chatting about the weather further ahead again. This then arrives into the "Nailed on timeframe" and away we go into the future again. Do members only read the charts for "prediction" ahead and stop when it is more certain?

I can kinda understand why the newbies would think that NW always get it wrong when the chat is always about the future, which will change and is usually nothing like the predictions when it arrives.

Not having a go guys, I am fasinated by the skill on here to read the charts, just confused why it stops when its within a solid reliable timeframe.

[SP1986]

Well, well. So the low goes further SW, then decides to swing back in bringing milder conditions in FI?!

It almost does a complete loop of the UK!!

Highly amusing isn't it

[MR EXTREMES]

I'm not entirely sure where people are getting ideas of significant snowfall from, unless I'm reading different charts.

The biggest oppurtunity for snow lies around 114 to 120 hours, even then by the west coast it will be of rain if that chart comes off. There are other light rain/sleet/snow events on the charts but nothing serious.

hmm!

i absolutely agree i think where getting ahead of our selfs the north looks good,but midlands south looks bad.

and the meto update reflects this eastward shift would have been the best but its not happened its looking poor.

[joo]

I have been watching the model chat for some time and I am confused It seems that as soon as it becomes within a relaible time frame "Nailed On" the chat stops when it would be relaible data and moves to chatting about the weather further ahead again. This then arrives into the "Nailed on timeframe" and away we go into the future again. Do members only read the charts for "prediction" ahead and stop when it is more certain?

I can kinda understand why the newbies would think that NW always get it wrong when the chat is always about the future, which will change and is usually nothing like the predictions when it arrives.

Not having a go guys, I am fasinated by the skill on here to read the charts, just confused why it stops when its within a solid reliable timeframe.

I'm with you Snow Angel. Or is there a thread I've been missing "models for the next few days that are not in FI" ?

It's often fun reading the MOD thread even though I have no idea how to read charts yet. But it's all about long range, not short range. Or is there no fun in interpreting the short range charts ?

[MR EXTREMES]

Interestingly very snowy GFS 6z even into deep FI.

http://www.wzkarten3...s/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wzkarten3...s/Rtavn1681.png

http://www.wzkarten3...s/Rtavn2881.png

http://www.wzkarten3...s/Rtavn3001.png

although looking at thease they look goooooooodddddd,

but next weeks event does not look good apart from the north.

perhapes a little more time for us to wait yet.

[aspire27]

Looks like something much more interesting in the charts today. Lets hope we see this trend continue with these charts being brought into the reliable.

[January Snowstorm]

I'm not entirely sure where people are getting ideas of significant snowfall from, unless I'm reading different charts.

The biggest oppurtunity for snow lies around 114 to 120 hours, even then by the west coast it will be of rain if that chart comes off. There are other light rain/sleet/snow events on the charts but nothing serious.

hmm!

Have to agree borderline everywhere

Hopecasting has taken over. A risk of snow yes, but mainly wrong side of marginal and tbh the whole event looks a damp squib

[Nick B]

[SP1986]

Have to agree borderline everywhere

Hopecasting has taken over. A risk of snow yes, but mainly wrong side of marginal and tbh the whole event looks a damp squib

Well I'm not sure it'll be marginal everywhere, only really the west coast of England/Wales and Ireland and of course Scotland based on current outputs.

areas east of Manchester and centralised should see snow, although I'm reserved whether it deserves the title of disruptive although I sense this word used to suggest severe when in reality it doesn't take much to disrupt the British way of life in terms of snow.

Whilst I'm not saying there won't be any snow, I think it'll be largely based away from the western coasts and also any snow thereafter will be fair infrequent and light.. again based on current outputs.

[locneverstop]

MJO, NAO, AO Solar Activity, MMW, Split Vortices :blink:

I never imagined before I started haunting these boards that so many things impacted on our weather systems. Forecasters definitely don't get the credit they're due.

Several times recently I've been tempted to post my thoughts on future events before a member has introduced the complications of one or all of the above, and hastily thought better of guessing!

I don't even know where we stand anymore, I can't seem to pick out a trend, even with reading more experienced member's posts. Does anyone have any thoughts of what they would like to see the 12Z trending towards, whether it's snow, rain or otherwise?

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's all up in the air really- GFS 12Z is a much snowier-looking run than the 06Z especially in its later stages due to the low being further east, and has more in common with this morning's ECMWF.

[John London]

Latest Met Office.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Generally cloudy with scattered light rain or sleet showers across England and Wales on Saturday and Sunday. Rain spreading from the northwest reaching all but the far southeast on Monday.

Updated: 1532 on Thu 11 Feb 2010

[gearbox1001]

Latest Met Office.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Generally cloudy with scattered light rain or sleet showers across England and Wales on Saturday and Sunday. Rain spreading from the northwest reaching all but the far southeast on Monday.

Updated: 1532 on Thu 11 Feb 2010

I think this will be the likely outcome, Feb has been an interesting month of lots of promise but not much delivery. I think someone will see snow, but not the majority. After the Monday/Tuesday senario has played out, im going to guess and flopping from mild to cold until March and lots of stressing and changing.

[John London]

It looks like rising temperatures and wind and rain for next week. The cold and snow lovers have had a good run for their money this winter, now time for something different.