Model Chat And Moods

[snowray]

There is no way we're going to have a 'snowmageddon' across the UK next week, maybe northern Scotland could have blizzards at times. Saying something like that just takes away all your credibility. Some areas will see snow at lower levels.

For better forecasting I suggest you READ the met-office forecasts for next week, as contrary to what many like to believe or speculate, they do actually know what they're talking about better than the vast majority of this forum.

That is why there is a snow watch out for next Tuesday.

Well maybe next tuesday will become a snowmageddon? Who can say, I for one would be very pleased.

I will keep an open mind, just this once. Its now or never Robert!

Look at all the free publicity this guy is getting, happens every year.

Edited February 13, 2010 by snowray

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I know one thing, id be very excited if I lived in Buxton or Flash, the highest village in staffordshire

[snowray]

Can I ask, whats all this about Sea Gulls then, not heard that one before?

Interestingly, when the Eastern half of Kent was getting all that heavy snow a couple of days ago there were hundreds of birds flying away from Kent towards London. In the late afternoon when I finally got one heavy snow shower around here, I could see it moving in on the radar and looked out to see even more birds flying away from the aproaching bad weather.

Didn't see any Sea Gulls though.

Edited February 13, 2010 by snowray

[John London]

Going by the bickering going on in the Model Output Discussion I must presume some of these guys didn't receive a Valentines Card this morning.

[Tom D]

Going by the bickering going on in the Model Output Discussion I must presume some of these guys didn't receive a Valentines Card this morning.

I admire you for being brave enough to say that!

My current 'mood' towards the model output is positive, with wintry weather in the forecast it's better than mild, wet and windy. I'm not bothered about snow at all, I've seen two big falls back in Herts this winter so I'm not looking for more. It's been interesting watching the model discussion and output up to today, where things have got a bit out of hand with regards to 'will it snow?' and accusations of regional bias. It's a shame because there are some who are genuinely talented and intelligent.

Edited February 14, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[Solar Cycles]

Going by the bickering going on in the Model Output Discussion I must presume some of these guys didn't receive a Valentines Card this morning.

Yes it appears cupids arrow missed it's target completely, for some on here! Back to the models, who would be a forecaster this coming week. Rain to Snow, Snow to Rain, and some sunshine in between!

[John London]

I wonder if one of the experts could let me know why the Met Office forecast for tonight is for clear skies over the east coast of Suffolk/Norfolk but the radar shows are large area of cloud heading across the North Sea out of France straight for these areas?

[Optimus Prime]

Stuck in a miserable, cold grey country full of cars, people, houses and people wanting more people wanting more cold and the models are still pointing towards much the same grey horrible dank ghastly stuff.

[snowray]

I wonder if one of the experts could let me know why the Met Office forecast for tonight is for clear skies over the east coast of Suffolk/Norfolk but the radar shows are large area of cloud heading across the North Sea out of France straight for these areas?

I was thinking the same thing. In fact pitty we have this blinking LP coming down from the North which will stop its advance, because that PPN moving East has some very cold air of around -10c hpa associated with it, yes its snow!

Stuck in a miserable, cold grey country full of cars, people, houses and people wanting more people wanting more cold and the models are still pointing towards much the same grey horrible dank ghastly stuff.

I think I'm going to go mild, Caymen Islands look nice.

[John London]

I was thinking the same thing. In fact pitty we have this blinking LP coming down from the North which will stop its advance, because that PPN moving East has some very cold air of around -10c hpa associated with it, yes its snow!

I think I'm going to go mild, Caymen Islands look nice.

Thanks for the reply. I can now see that it won't make it across the North Sea, close, but not close enough.

[Burygirl]

I don't post on these forums but frequently visit to see what the weather has instore for us. However recently it has become more like a visit to my childrens school at lunchtime! I read the more experienced members posts ie teits, ns, sm posts as they contain a lot of learning material for us all, they do not get paid to do it! I think more should be grateful and give this bias arguement up, it is something I'd expect my 6 year olds to argue about!!

[MR EXTREMES]

ok so ive sat by my computer since the last of the snow melted from january,

since then ive seen nothing,

but watched the models everyday,

i worked it out to be approaching atleast 4 weeks,

there was cold shot after cold shot forecast but never really shown its full force.

as for now i really agree with those who say we are stuck in the middle of nowhere,

and to be very honest ive run out of patience now.

i can not be bothered no longer because this is turning into a more and more none developing spell its really not going nowhere,

it also has to be noted that neg nao, warm stratosphere, neg ao,

all thease things dont mean cold but its ment to make it more likely,

but the weather patterns have to be in the right place at the right time.

my opion is winter is not 100% over for scotland but northern england southwards looking like getting milder but very slowly,

as for NOAA rubbish utter rubbish im sorry thease people are terrible,

id take anything the NOAA with a pinch of salt.

every model has shown us its messy,

and very unlikely winter has a sting in its tail.

and to be honest im rather cheesed off now ive realised ive herd the same comments over and over,

yet nothing has ever happened,

i think there a clear indication that things dont look good for cold,

theres has been maybe moments and none moments and the clearest signs have been from both steve murr dissapearing from the thread and gp posting his thoughts,

although he rethinked his idears for febuary his first thoughts where correct without the warmth.

every model is showing the same even with the teleconnections as they are so id say its game over,

by the way im not trying to upset this thread,

or any of the constructive comments that have been made over the last 4 weeks,

but ive very honestly blown my top this waiting around is a waist of time and every longrange forecast made by human and computer in the last 4 weeks has been wrong not 100% wrong but never turning out anything like predicted.

im exhusted honestly.:clap:

ive never seen nothing like it what a dissapointment so close but yet so far bloody shortwaves just messed everything up for us.

Edited February 14, 2010 by badboy657

[lukemc]

ok so ive sat by my computer since the last of the snow melted from january,

since then ive seen nothing,

but watched the models everyday,

i worked it out to be approaching atleast 4 weeks,

there was cold shot after cold shot forecast but never really shown its full force.

as for now i really agree with those who say we are stuck in the middle of nowhere,

and to be very honest ive run out of patience now.

i can not be bothered no longer because this is turning into a more and more none developing spell its really not going nowhere,

it also has to be noted that neg nao, warm stratosphere, neg ao,

all thease things dont mean cold but its ment to make it more likely,

but the weather patterns have to be in the right place at the right time.

my opion is winter is not 100% over for scotland but northern england southwards looking like getting milder but very slowly,

as for NOAA rubbish utter rubbish im sorry thease people are terrible,

id take anything the NOAA with a pinch of salt.

every model has shown us its messy,

and very unlikely winter has a sting in its tail.

and to be honest im rather cheesed off now ive realised ive herd the same comments over and over,

yet nothing has ever happened,

i think there a clear indication that things dont look good for cold,

theres has been maybe moments and none moments and the clearest signs have been from both steve murr dissapearing from the thread and gp posting his thoughts,

although he rethinked his idears for febuary his first thoughts where correct without the warmth.

every model is showing the same even with the teleconnections as they are so id say its game over,

by the way im not trying to upset this thread,

or any of the constructive comments that have been made over the last 4 weeks,

but ive very honestly blown my top this waiting around is a waist of time and every longrange forecast made by human and computer in the last 4 weeks has been wrong not 100% wrong but never turning out anything like predicted.

im exhusted honestly.

ive never seen nothing like it what a dissapointment so close but yet so far bloody shortwaves just messed everything up for us.

So an early spring then in your opinion LOL! Remember we can still get cold and snow into March and even sometimes into April (remember April 2008?) Anyway I do not think thier is any teleconnection support for anything mild until at least the first week of March!

Luke

[londonsnow]

Remember from a couple of weeks ago, nothing is set in stone past +120/+144. Current output may favour a return to mild SWrlys but that return is beyond the true reliable time frame.

swt.erlies anything for quiet life!

[Archie_Lewis]

well had a good look at the ukmo and gfs looks like winter over for southern england.

holds on in the north but looking like turning milder here towards end of both models i would add though average in the south and slightly above in the north,

before the cold gets mixed out im sure theres a good 4 days of winter left for midland north.

nothing at all for the southcoast perhapes some sleet over the chilterns before mildish air kicks in.

Im in Southern England and it certainly isnt over here. Its snowing outside now for starters.

Although you on the South Coast, your probably right.

[January Snowstorm]

Longer term, the main core of energy in the North-Atlantic upper flow looks to remain suppressed, so much milder weather maybe put on hold, but nothing very cold looks in the offing, just marginal set-ups for snow.

Yes but I think most on here look for snow not cold.

It's been a bitterly cold winter yet most have not seen much snow.

We might actually get more snow from this type of set up, which is what I seek anyway

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes but I think most on here look for snow not cold.

It's been a bitterly cold winter yet most have not seen much snow.

We might actually get more snow from this type of set up, which is what I seek anyway

its not been that cold here in southern england sorry the southcoast and febuary has been a total waist of time here,

certainly not a big deal although december for a day or two and january was excellent 7 days of lying snow,

but febuary has been crap total rubbish and the models have only added to the dissapointments with there rather over exciting easterlies that never happened.

[Jason T]

Sorry CC but once again you have added a good 'get out clause' in your post regarding cold. There is NOTHING significant showing in the models regarding cold this week. Maybe some wet snow in places. Any real snow limited to N and NE Scotland this week. Please please stop getting the hopes up of 'newer members'.

Good post Bristle boy, very realistic. The gradual morph to spring is on it way. My weather station had a maximum of 8.5 degrees today.

Sorry but once again, 'severe frosts'??? Dont think so. Severe frost is what the country had towards the end of Dec, early Jan. People now need to realise that we are entering the end of winter and heading for march.

Please can we stop the chasing the cold that has never really been showed this month. The only real cold has been in FI, and as FI neared it was downgrades all the way as I said and got slated. As per last week regarding the 'easterly'.

So this week some wintry PPN about the country, any snow and cold weather is in N/NE Scotland. Hope people start to realise this and stop chasing something that has not ever been consistanlty modeled.

March can be just as bad.

March 2006 - England and Wales

Review of England and Wales' weather in March 2006.

Scotland

Northern Ireland

Latest MonthEngland

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

2007January

Previous Years2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

<BR clear=all>

Summary<BR clear=all>It was a cold month with spells of wintry weather and below average temperatures. However, this was partially offset by warmer conditions during the final week of the month as winds turned south-westerly.

<BR clear=all>

Diary of Highlights

1st - 7th

It was a dry start to the month as high pressure remained dominant across England and Wales. It was cold as well with freezing fog patches in many places and snow grains reported from southern England and East Anglia. Leek in Staffordshire remained below freezing all day on the 1st, recording a 24 hour maximum of -2.3°C. 7th - 9th

On the 7th the transient ridge gave-way allowing rain in the far west to sweep eastwards across most parts. This was preceded by sleet and snow over high ground in the north. The rain was heavy in the west, with Milford Haven (Pembrokeshire) recording 27 mm in the 24 hours ending 6 PM on the 7th.

Further belts of rain pushed northeast on the 8th and 9th with heavy, frequent and locally thundery showers following. Wales and the west bore the brunt of the rain and showers with Sennybridge (Powys) recording 22.7 mm in the 24 hours ending 6 PM on the 8th while Capel Curig (Gwynedd) recorded 34.8 mm in the 24 hours ending 9 AM on the 10th. Despite the rain this was a much milder spell with Torquay (Devon) reaching 13.7 °C on the 7th, Credenhill (Herefordshire) 14.1 °C on the 8th and Herne Bay (Kent) 12.6 °C on the 9th.

10th - 14th

Further weather fronts pushed in from west during this period but a build of pressure to the east of the UK slowed their eastwards progress with some of the fronts stalling across Wales and more western parts. As a result Milford Haven (Pembrokeshire) recorded 25.2 mm (09-21) on the 13th and Walney Island (Cumbria) recorded 23.4 mm in the 24 hours ending 6 PM on the 14th. The undercut of cold air initiated by the build of pressure allowed some of the rain associated with the fronts to turn to snow, particularly across Wales, Cumbria and the Pennines.

There were also reports of freezing rain across parts of northern England on the morning of the 14th. Thanks to the influx of cold air from the east Fylingdales (North Yorkshire) only reach 1 °C on the 14th while in the extreme west it was much milder with Trawscoed (Ceredigion) recording 12.3 °C on the same day.

15th - 18th

The area of high pressure, initially centred across Scandinavia, migrated westward towards Iceland during this period. As a result a cold east to northeasterly flow dominated the weather, strong at times across southern parts. The flow brought wintry showers to northern England on the 15th while other parts enjoyed dry and fairly sunny conditions.

By the 16th the cloudier skies had spread further south and west with the cloud thick enough, particularly in the east, to give wintry flurries and snow grains and these conditions persisted for the following few days. It was cold or very cold across most parts with Leek (Staffordshire) only reaching 1 °C on the 17th and Cottesmore (Rutland) only reaching 2.4 °C on the 18th. However, some sheltered southern and western parts had temperatures closer to normal.

19th - 22nd

The easterly flow continued to affect more southern parts during this spell but elsewhere the weather was under the influence of a north to northeasterly. Showers affected areas exposed to the wind but the change of wind direction allowed sunnier skies to develop particularly in the west. Anglesey recorded 11 hours of sunshine on the 19th with Manchester seeing around 10 hours on the 22nd. It was still rather cold, particularly in the east, although locally the sunshine boosted temperatures to near normal.

23th - 31st

The 23rd started cold and frosty with a low of minus 5 °C in Bedford and there was plenty of sunshine through the day (10.6 hours Coltishall). However a southerly flow developed through the day and rain reached the West Country later in the day. This was the first indications of a transition to milder conditions and that transition continued over the next few days as the flow became predominantly a fresh to strong south-westerly. Bands of rain swept across from the west on that wind interspersed with showers and these conditions prevailed through to the end of the month. In fact Pembrey Sands (Carmarthenshire) recorded a gust of 66 M.P.H. on the 27th.

Western parts again bore the brunt of the rain with Capel Curig (Gwynedd) the wettest on three consecutive days, logging 44 mm in the 24 hours ending 6 PM on the 26th, with 39.4 mm and 59.6 mm in the following two 24 hour periods. Capel Curing had a further 36.2 mm in the 24 hours to 6 PM on the 30th. Despite the belts of rain and showers it was generally warm through this period and locally very warm, notably in the east. Holbeach (Lincolnshire) reach 16.9 °C on the 25th, Scampton (Lincolnshire) reached 17.7 °C on the 26th, and Conningsby (Lincolnshire) hit 17.2°C on the 30th. Southern and western fringes remained cooler with temperatures tempered by the wind off the sea.

Statistical details

England and Wales Mean Temperature Series (series began in 1914).The initial value for the month was 4.6 °C0.6 °C above the 1961-1990 average, which is in the below average category. Coldest since 1996.England and Wales Rainfall Series (series began in 1914).The initial total for the month was 88.8 mm121 % of the 1961-1990 average, which is in the above average category. England and Wales Sunshine Series (series began in 1929).The initial total for the month was 99.4 hours95 % of the 1961-1990 average, which is in the close to average category.<BR clear=all>

Also relates model topic.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

gotta agree fully with aspire27 (post no 47) in model thread, nothing cold for the majority, mid feb now, reached 7.8C today and felt really mild with little wind,

the cold is being hopecasted for FI, realistically all low levels in england and wales will see highs of at least 6°C, spring nearly here now,

even last week was typical mid Feb for here, nothing cold with highs around 6°C

[La Bise]

It did indeed feel outright balmy when I was waiting my tram home at 4ish, I'm going to work in a t-shirt tomorrow....

[swfc]

The bbc earlier showed the jet south over the med ete.???.you cant believe our luck can you given the blocking to the north.

[LomondSnowstorm]

It did indeed feel outright balmy when I was waiting my tram home at 4ish, I'm going to work in a t-shirt tomorrow....

A tad chilly for that perhaps? http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100215/18/24/prectypeuktopo.png

[La Bise]

Wrong smiley, just a bit of heavy irony in reguards to those posts about spring...cold, rainy, snowy this morning...

[Don]

The bbc earlier showed the jet south over the med ete.???.you cant believe our luck can you given the blocking to the north.

Yes, I saw that as well. We have been so unlucky lately with what could have been! I suspect that it will be a long time before we see this potential arise again and it's all gone to waste.

Edited February 16, 2010 by Don

[TEITS]

I do feel as though I need to clear up this constant reference to seagulls.

At the time of noticing them the model output was suggesting a classic battle between the Atlantic and a Scandi HP with neither of them winning. Now at the time I remembered a well known saying around these parts that a large number of Seagulls inland means the weather is going to be coming from the E.

These proved completely wrong I hasten to add. Like I said using nature isn't nothing new in meteorology and has been used for years by farmers.