Model Chat And Moods

[MR EXTREMES]

still looks very dissapointing for here on the southcoast typical that the -7 dont make it past the southcoast.

but great for the rest of the uk lol typical.:lol::lol:

[kent]

I do feel as though I need to clear up this constant reference to seagulls.

At the time of noticing them the model output was suggesting a classic battle between the Atlantic and a Scandi HP with neither of them winning. Now at the time I remembered a well known saying around these parts that a large number of Seagulls inland means the weather is going to be coming from the E.

These proved completely wrong I hasten to add. Still there is a big difference between using the signs of nature than relying on a spirit called Matthew. Like I said using nature isn't nothing new in meteorology and has been used for years by farmers.

Another saying TEITS is, wind from the east is no good for man nor beast. Also the ODE TO THE WEATHERMAN, I have many regrets. When im right no one remembers, when im wrong no one forgets. lol.

[La Bise]

Nature is reactive though, there is very little forecast you can do with what plants and animals do or don't do.

[snowingtequila]

I do feel as though I need to clear up this constant reference to seagulls.

At the time of noticing them the model output was suggesting a classic battle between the Atlantic and a Scandi HP with neither of them winning. Now at the time I remembered a well known saying around these parts that a large number of Seagulls inland means the weather is going to be coming from the E.

These proved completely wrong I hasten to add. Still there is a big difference between using the signs of nature than relying on a spirit called Matthew. Like I said using nature isn't nothing new in meteorology and has been used for years by farmers.

maybe not completely wrong. THe seagulls could have been reacting to signals that suggested they should move inland. Maybe they had an unsure forecast and were edging their bets.

[snowray]

maybe not completely wrong. THe seagulls could have been reacting to signals that suggested they should move inland. Maybe they had an unsure forecast and were edging their bets.

as I mentioned the other day, last week when East Kent got all that snow the birds were all flying away from Kent in big swarms towards London.

There are lots of old Weather proverbs and sayings of course. My nan who was from the mountains of NW Italy used to say this one, think its origins are from Genoa, from the days of the battles at Malta, Constantinope, Vienna I would imagine.

"February is short, short, but worse then a Turk".

In the local dialect it would be "Freva' le curtu, curtu; ma le pesu ca un Turchu".

No offence to the Turks mind.

Don't rime in English though. And it was often the case, that February ended up a month of Easterlies. They would say if it blows for 3 days it wil go to 6, if it blows for 6 it will go on to 9 days, etc, etc. And often it did do just that she would say, and life up in the mountains became very grim indeed. She would say that an Easterly in february was worse than the devil!

Of course these days the old peasents with their crooked backs and creviced faces are all long gone. And the places where they struggled infernally through massive drifts to fetch water from the well, and feed for their few wretched animals, and clear the copious snows from the lofts of their houses that had blown in through the gaps in the tiles of the roofs before it melted and started to drip into the bed rooms, are either semi-abandoned or sky resorts.

Edited February 16, 2010 by snowray

[stewfox]

Nature is reactive though, there is very little forecast you can do with what plants and animals do or don't do.

There are probably 10,000 examples of when nature reacted long before 'we' saw it on model charts.

[kent]

The squirrels in my garden are digging out the nuts they buried because they know with spring coming there will be food a plenty. Plus the blue tits are checking out the box I have hanging in the tree. My point is they probably know what weather is coming far more than my limited knowledge and I suspect more than most of the posters on this forum lol.

[karyo]

yes the term glass houses springs to mind here.Ian forecast blowtorch last winter and again this winter im not sure

he's in a position to be making remarks about sub zero Febs!!!

Anyway,had some snow today and the posibilty of some more at the end of the week according to gfs.

some elevated areas could see some decent dumpings in the next few days,what a nice end to a freezing cold winter.

Indeed! It was a lovely surprise to wake up to heavy snowfall this morning! So pleased that the forecasts for a mild February didn't materialise. Any wintry weather we get, after such a winter is a bonus!

Karyo

[MR EXTREMES]

as for the teleconnections and march omg really,

some are saying the mother of all cold is going to hit us,

i think they could,nt be futher than the truth,it wont be nothing like that even with a record breaking ao ssw event and so on.

ive been hearing this for a month now and from my location its been pretty boring to say the least,

then today all the models give hope of cold which in my opion is rubbish,

theres nothing extreme about the model outputs today or for the medium term unless you live futher north midlands north id say,even here its always going to be marginal.

in the south nothing in the medium or longterm suggests anything to be excited about infact this is a typical febuary we have become used to in the last 15years or so,

but yet we will still get the cold is coming even up until the warmth is apon us,

today in the south it feels very mild indeed so i cant see what the big deal is about,

when steve m and gp dont post surely that tells us something.

theres no full blown easterly or northeasterly predicted only air rapped round a low pressure depression mixing cold mild so to be honest i think febuary depending where you are located is rather poor.

and cooling climate i dont really want to fall out with you and this is just my opion i agree you as much as any is allowed to voice your opion but for a mega amount of time you suggest massive events,

not once have they happened i really think you and some others are hopecasting and perhapes even giving others like myself the wrong idear,

cold at times it will be futher north the better major event record breaking what ever its not going to happen soon it will be march and although some feel the trend towards a cold month is likely its not going to be how you have predicted it to be,

im sorry it every day soon as cold is on the charts thats it some jump on it as gospel soon as milder air arives cooling continues to predict a growing trend.

my opion average or slightly below in the north.

Very good indeed. Made my morning.

[Backtrack]

why? unfortunately snow in march might be rare but it does happen. march 1979 had a fall, as did april 1968, but the march of 1970 saw a HUGE dumping...

not what i want to see mind

Lets not forget Easter 08?

[Nights King]

Lets not forget Easter 08?

april 14th 1999 was a large fall of snow with 5 feet drifts over the hills of somerset.

[R.P. McMurphy]

why? unfortunately snow in march might be rare but it does happen. march 1979 had a fall, as did april 1968, but the march of 1970 saw a HUGE dumping...

not what i want to see mind

Please show me a chart which predicted any setup in winter that far out in advance. Then I might think, yes let's get a little excited. Or not...

[stewfox]

in the south nothing in the medium or longterm suggests anything to be excited about infact this is a typical febuary we have become used to in the last 15years or so,

Lets see CET so far for Feb 2.9c with snow or snow showers nearly every other day

Yes thats a 'typical feb' of the last 15yrs or so

[Nights King]

Lets see CET so far for Feb 2.9c with snow or snow showers nearly every other day

Yes thats a 'typical feb' of the last 15yrs or so

Hmm I also would not call it a normal feb. It has snowed albeit not much nearly every day here over last week or so.

[MR EXTREMES]

Hmm I also would not call it a normal feb. It has snowed albeit not much nearly every day here over last week or so.

lol again it depend on you location i dunno how many times im going to have to type this.

location

location

location

lacation:lol:

you must be lucky because lots in the west country have not seen anything exciting am i right?

i dunno i did not know sommerset had snow falling the last 5 days never knew that.

Edited February 16, 2010 by badboy657

[grab my graupel]

Just a gentle reminder folks:

The Model Moods thread was created so that people can express their emotions concerning the model output/weather. It's not a tool for attacking/criticizing fellow members.

Can we please bear this in mind before posting in here?

Thank you

Brian

[La Bise]

There are probably 10,000 examples of when nature reacted long before 'we' saw it on model charts.

Ah...care to mention a few? Should be quite easy out of 10000 I guess...

Tagging a reply to Kent as well, the squirrels are digging nuts because daylight is now longuer, their instincts tell them a change of season is approaching based on that. Nothing to do with knowing weeks in advance what the weather is going to be like. The poor buggers will starve by the thousands if some freak spell of bad weather happens in april/may and spring growth is feeble.

Just look at the problems with trees flowering too early or edgehogs mating in december during one of our recent very mild winters. Nature did not have a clue, it just followed some very broad primers, in this case far above average temperatures. Only a few examples of actual thousands of observations by biologists, ornithologists, etc of the adverse effect that climate perturbations can have on the life cycle of flora and fauna. Best leave the "nature knows" to the Almanach and assorted folk tales of yore, after all they were probably elaborated at the same time as folks thought dragons lied in wait beyond the horizon...

Edited February 16, 2010 by La Bise

[John London]

Ah...care to mention a few? Should be quite easy out of 10000 I guess...

Tagging a reply to Kent as well, the squirrels are digging nuts because daylight is now longuer, their instincts tell them a change of season is approaching based on that. Nothing to do with knowing weeks in advance what the weather is going to be like. The poor buggers will starve by the thousands if some freak spell of bad weather happens in april/may and spring growth is feeble.

Just look at the problems with trees flowering too early or edgehogs mating in december during one of our recent very mild winters. Nature did not have a clue, it just followed some very broad primers, in this case far above average temperatures. Only a few examples of actual thousands of observations by biologists, ornithologists, etc of the adverse effect that climate perturbations can have on the life cycle of flora and fauna. Best leave the "nature knows" to the Almanach and assorted folk tales of yore, after all they were probably elaborated at the same time as folks thought dragons lied in wait beyond the horizon...

Don't know if this has any bearing on the forthcoming weather patterns but we have just seen a Magpie dressed in a scarf and a woolly hat in our car park.

[La Bise]

If it was dragging a sack of coal for the nest, then you're in for a cold blast...

[Cheese Rice]

as for the teleconnections and march omg really,

some are saying the mother of all cold is going to hit us,

i think they could,nt be futher than the truth,it wont be nothing like that even with a record breaking ao ssw event and so on.

ive been hearing this for a month now and from my location its been pretty boring to say the least,

then today all the models give hope of cold which in my opion is rubbish,

theres nothing extreme about the model outputs today or for the medium term unless you live futher north midlands north id say,even here its always going to be marginal.

in the south nothing in the medium or longterm suggests anything to be excited about infact this is a typical febuary we have become used to in the last 15years or so,

but yet we will still get the cold is coming even up until the warmth is apon us,

today in the south it feels very mild indeed so i cant see what the big deal is about,

when steve m and gp dont post surely that tells us something.

theres no full blown easterly or northeasterly predicted only air rapped round a low pressure depression mixing cold mild so to be honest i think febuary depending where you are located is rather poor.

and cooling climate i dont really want to fall out with you and this is just my opion i agree you as much as any is allowed to voice your opion but for a mega amount of time you suggest massive events,

not once have they happened i really think you and some others are hopecasting and perhapes even giving others like myself the wrong idear,

cold at times it will be futher north the better major event record breaking what ever its not going to happen soon it will be march and although some feel the trend towards a cold month is likely its not going to be how you have predicted it to be,

im sorry it every day soon as cold is on the charts thats it some jump on it as gospel soon as milder air arives cooling continues to predict a growing trend.

my opion average or slightly below in the north.

I think the best option for you is to move further north as you will never do really well you live, you're expectations are too high for you're location.

[kent]

I think the best option for you is to move further north as you will never do really well you live, you're expectations are too high for you're location.

My reply to that would be I would rather suffer earthquakes than leave a beautiful location like the south coast to live in the area you suggest.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I suggest that it's unreasonable to tar the entire of the south coast, or the entire of the "north", with the same brush. Some parts of the south coast are indeed beautiful, but other parts are pretty rank, while many others fall in between the two. The same goes for areas further north. I spent a year living in the central part of Leeds and thought it was pretty good there, while accepting that there were also some pretty rough and unpleasant areas in the vicinity. The same goes for the upland areas around Leeds, which include the area that 10123 lives in- some beautiful, some okay, some ugly.

Portsmouth is indeed a very bad area to be in if you like snow. It's too far west to catch most of the "easterly" snowstorms that hit Kent and Sussex (Hastings is a surprisingly snowy location considering that it has relatively mild mean temperatures in winter), and too far east to catch the occasional West Country events like the one that hit the Exeter area around 5-6 February 2009.

[Cheese Rice]

My reply to that would be I would rather suffer earthquakes than leave a beautiful location like the south coast to live in the area you suggest.

A bit harsh, I can see why your bitter though, Yorkshire dales on my doorstep, Leeds voted best place to live in the UK, Leeds Awarded for Architecture Excellence in Places and Spaces, Knightsbridge of North, biggest financial sector outside of London, the list goes on. So "kent" what makes your place so great? (e.g where I live is a )

Edited February 16, 2010 by 10123

[kent]

A bit harsh, I can see why your bitter though, Yorkshire dales on my doorstep, Leeds voted best place to live in the UK, Leeds Awarded for Architecture Excellence in Places and Spaces, Knightsbridge of North, biggest financial sector outside of London, the list goes on. While Portsmouth... ... what awards has that one?

I wasn't even referring to Leeds, just further north.

Not bitter at all lol. I actually live in Poole. The harbour, Brownsea Island, The New Forest. The beautiful beaches of Sandbanks Swanage Weymouth Dorchester steeped in history. I could go on. When you make comments like if you dont like it then move to others, then expect a reaction.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I do agree that the "if you don't like it then move" comments can be annoying, because there are usually many factors other than climate for choosing to live in an area, and moving to another area for more of one's preferred types of weather is often impractical because of the impact on the other factors.

After all, if I could live anywhere I wanted just for the weather, ignoring other factors, while I'd probably take Norwich over anywhere else in the UK, I'd soon be off on a plane to somewhere on the continent, probably around Munich. But for various reasons, moving there would be very impractical.