Model Chat And Moods

[swfc]

After taking a break from the models for a week the current set up isnt looking as great as previous.Cold with scattered wintry showers,frost.So yes its ok for feb but looks a bit devoid of any real interest.

[Freezing-Point]

After taking a break from the models for a week the current set up isnt looking as great as previous.Cold with scattered wintry showers,frost.So yes its ok for feb but looks a bit devoid of any real interest.

Judging by the amount of activity on here it looks like many others have taken a break from the models. We have been to spoilt this year and expectations are too high. If this pattern was set up a couple of years back there would loads of posts flooding in as the 18Z rolls out.

Edited February 8, 2010 by Freezing-Point

[Bristawl Si]

People are downbeat because a fewdays ago the models were hinting at a more snowy look for 'week 2' (i.e.not this week, except for the East) for wider area of the UK.

Now it looks like most will be in a boring coldish spell with any snow reserved for the S.E. and even there accumulations will be small, except for Kent. The bitter cold predicted by the models a few days ago seems to be staying on the continent.

things could change, but at the mo looks 'more of the same'.

[smich]

I remember back in the days....about 1998 to the 2004 event....here in Barnet, North London....

....winter after winter......no netweather.........

no snow.

not a flake.

nada.

zilcho.

Mild mild mild.

"even larger teapot".

My sled has seen more action in the last 18 months than in the entire decade before!

Some folks need a reality check. What was. What is. And what might be!

chin up peeps!

Steve M

And that's another thing!

We've had sleet/wet snow falling virtually all day today, but because it didn't cause a gridlock situation across the capital, it doesn't seem to count!

Steve M

[swfc]

At 240 hrs its obvious where all the cold is heading.so close.

[SP1986]

At the end of the day, in recent times what we got in December was extreme, and bar some kind of rare event will not be seen again for a few years.

This is possibly why members expect a little much sometimes, however I personally don't blame them because I have to admit I did have expectations for summer 2004 following 2003 which in reality were unrealistic and we're unlikely to happen. 2004 wasn't a bad summer though.

Still the events of December would be a big ask to occur again and the only reason it got as cold as it did was because of snow cover.

In the nights without snowcover I only witnessed -4.2C

You know what though if the next 10 winter were the 10 mildest winters on record, I would enjoy it!

[mackerel sky]

It has been a long time since I can remember a winter with so many days of snow falling. I've lost count now. However, with the exception of the week before Christmas when there was a good 6 inches, the 'big freeze' in early January never produced more than about 2 inches lof ying snow at any one time here in East Northants, caught between the good showery activity further north, and the low pressure rubbing up the south. When you get caught in that situation it is frustrating. I'd easily imagine we have had over 20+ days with snow falling out of the sky this winter. But it still hasn't come close to the amount of snow that fell in Northants this time last year when we were in the 'sweet spot'.

I'm hoping this spell we are now in is somewhat more straightforward. When not caught between convective shower activity and organised snowfall to the south, it would be a surprise if precipitation off the North Sea didn't manage to make it the 45-50 miles from the Wash inland to here.

So in summary winter 09/10, lots of days with snow falling, not many big accumulations thus far here. But living up to a foot in February 09 is a big ask.

[John London]

Yesterday I had to drive from here in Gunton to Colchester and back and in that time I probably drove through some of the heaviest snow of the winter so far. What was great about it was none of this snow settled, so you had the lovely scene of lots of very large snowflakes falling but without any of the hassle. Perfect. Model Mood: This "Beast From The East" is just a little fluffy kitten.

[Strider]

I was quite disappointed with the GFS this morning.

It's a poor man's easterley tbh, day time temps up at 3-4c with the op eventually climbing to double figures towards the end.

Upper temps too expected to rise above 0c.

[Lewis]

Well,

Other than rain/sleet/hail/mixture of wet snow showers, dry weather for many, and frosts at night it's going to be a dissapointing cold spell.

The models are not brilliant this morning, the evolution on the GFS 00z is certainly a messy once.

We have had a brilliant winter this year, and i don't think next years will replicate it.

Enjoy it whilst you can folks, winter is certainly coming to an end.

I wonder what the 06z shows.

[Damp and dreary]

Well,

Other than rain/sleet/hail/mixture of wet snow showers, dry weather for many, and frosts at night it's going to be a dissapointing cold spell.

The models are not brilliant this morning, the evolution on the GFS 00z is certainly a messy once.

We have had a brilliant winter this year, and i don't think next years will replicate it.

Enjoy it whilst you can folks, winter is certainly coming to an end.

I wonder what the 06z shows.

Shhhh, see what you have done? Comments like that scare off anyone else writing in here.

Anyway S.F.L Im glad to see in the other room you have cheered up somewhat with the current model output!

Jason

[dubmuffin]

Many people have been spoilt this year and now have high expectations. I don't feel spoilt as I only got 3-4cm here on 2 consecutive Wednesdays so good, but not exceptional (I still have high expectations though ). The trouble is that as a novice - reading the model threads I get excited, I look at the charts, and read the comments, and take note of those I trust most of course. Now, I have learned over the years not to get too optimistic, and this winter the big one is nearly always 3-6 days away, so my guess is that the models can't forecast the easterlies correctly. I like my snow to be disruptive, that's half the fun (the other half is sledging of course!)

A similar evolution of the models happened here in Dec and January with the safe bet turning to just a bit of Kent every 3 days, but I have been pleasantly surprised in Feb/April before so remain hopeful...

[SP1986]

It's interesting to see many people regard this coming up as a serious cold spell. I can't really see it as anything other than a weak cold spell myself. Even taking for the hard cold spell back in December, and the longevity the models suggest, minimum temperatures of 0C to -1C (more realistic given the GFS is as ever going over the top with 2m temperature predictions of -4 on the coast), and 4-7C which is average maximum value, makes it a cool spell but cold not in this country anyway. It is supposedly the coldest month of the year but I can't see anything really to get excited about (bear in mind that the long term is subject to change)

It does look fairly benign in the realistic timeframe, although someone in the southeast may disagree at some point this week

[Thundery wintry showers]

It depends on what area of the country you live in- across East Anglia and the SE temperatures look likely to drop around Wednesday-Friday with highs of 2 or 3C and sub -10C 850hPa air moving over, but elsewhere, temperatures do look like being just a couple of degrees or so down on the long-term average.

[Kris T]

Hi everyone, this is my first post after using this site for over a year. I live in Sutton, Surrey and work in Croydon.

I'm very passionate about the weather and I like this site so much because of the knowledge that is shared around the forum. This winter has surpassed my expectations so far. However, we cannot customise the weather that comes our way. I want to learn from others and ignore the negative comments when the models do not come up trumps with a "beast from the east" for example.

I am an amateur of course, but I can see the cold lasting for at least a week with the risk of snow for my area.

Glad to be on board with you all.

[Solar Cycles]

<br />I am not so keen on the Met Office update! It seems to go with the ECM & GEM scenario, as they expect rain or sleet with hill snow for next week. Snow at times at low levels only in the north. If the update was supporting the GFS scenario, there would be snow across the UK and not just the high ground!<br /><br />Karyo<br />

<br /><br /><br />Oh dear I had high hopes next week, for us in the NW. Still maybe the GFS is the one to be right this time.

[dubmuffin]

I also don't regard anything with temps over 1c as a particularly cold, just winter, or maybe as a smoker I'm now hardened to the cold

[Thunder Snow]

I hope the 6z comes off for next week, there could be quite alot of snowaround.

[Bobby]

It's interesting to see many people regard this coming up as a serious cold spell. I can't really see it as anything other than a weak cold spell myself. Even taking for the hard cold spell back in December, and the longevity the models suggest, minimum temperatures of 0C to -1C (more realistic given the GFS is as ever going over the top with 2m temperature predictions of -4 on the coast), and 4-7C which is average maximum value, makes it a cool spell but cold not in this country anyway. It is supposedly the coldest month of the year but I can't see anything really to get excited about (bear in mind that the long term is subject to change)

It does look fairly benign in the realistic timeframe, although someone in the southeast may disagree at some point this week

Agreed, this is a very minor spell for 90% of Britain. Here it looks like temps of 4-6c this week and mainly dry with patchy cloud and with the odd frost, hardly something to tell your grandkids about. I doubt even the far SE will see significant snowfall. Next week may be another story though.

[SP1986]

You can tell it's getting lighter now as the maximum temperature is occurring at 3:30pm, whereas at one point in December the maximum temperature would have occurred around 12-1pm and a cooldown would have occurred from 2pm - but that might just be the nature of cold air.

The models at least are forecasting the 2m temperatures fairly accurately in accordance with the lengthening days, however much of the country got higher temperatures than the GFS suggested today.

[PB22]

It's interesting to see many people regard this coming up as a serious cold spell. I can't really see it as anything other than a weak cold spell myself. Even taking for the hard cold spell back in December, and the longevity the models suggest, minimum temperatures of 0C to -1C (more realistic given the GFS is as ever going over the top with 2m temperature predictions of -4 on the coast), and 4-7C which is average maximum value, makes it a cool spell but cold not in this country anyway. It is supposedly the coldest month of the year but I can't see anything really to get excited about (bear in mind that the long term is subject to change)

It does look fairly benign in the realistic timeframe, although someone in the southeast may disagree at some point this week

I agree with your sentiments Stephen. I guess in previous mild winters it would be something to get interested in, but for the majority its just going to be a cool and settled spell, with the main thrust of cold having been shunted further south over the last couple of days. Still, some encouraging signs of spring beginning to approach, especially with the sun already having enough power to generate a few home grown showers today.

Maybe a little interest for the far southeast over the next couple of days, otherwise a cool spell sums it up nicely. It could have been so much better though!

[SP1986]

I agree with your sentiments Stephen. I guess in previous mild winters it would be something to get interested in, but for the majority its just going to be a cool and settled spell, with the main thrust of cold having been shunted further south over the last couple of days. Still, some encouraging signs of spring beginning to approach, especially with the sun already having enough power to generate a few home grown showers today.

Maybe a little interest for the far southeast over the next couple of days, otherwise a cool spell sums it up nicely. It could have been so much better though!

Well this is it, I do think this cold spell will resemble the cold spells in the previous milder winters, but alas maybe that's just because the sun has a bit more strength. Also in the northerly spell we had over a week ago, despite 850hPa temperatures of near -10C (or on it perhaps), here in the coast we failed on any night to go below 0.0C, yet last night with a weak easterly some of the southeast coast saw below 0.0C.

This suggests the sea temperature is currently higher in the Irish Sea than the North Sea.

Agreed with the suggestion that Spring feels like it is beginning to approach. 6C in full sun today felt pleasant, out of the breeze.

[PB22]

Well this is it, I do think this cold spell will resemble the cold spells in the previous milder winters, but alas maybe that's just because the sun has a bit more strength. Also in the northerly spell we had over a week ago, despite 850hPa temperatures of near -10C (or on it perhaps), here in the coast we failed on any night to go below 0.0C, yet last night with a weak easterly some of the southeast coast saw below 0.0C.

This suggests the sea temperature is currently higher in the Irish Sea than the North Sea.

Agreed with the suggestion that Spring feels like it is beginning to approach. 6C in full sun today felt pleasant, out of the breeze.

Indeed they are:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack5.html

I also feel that the cold North Sea temperatures aren't helping with convection here either...been a fine and mostly sunny day, very much like we get in spring and summer here by the coast with inland areas seeing the cloud and showers bubble up. Perhaps with the colder uppers here tomorrow a few more showers may develop.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I agree with your sentiments Stephen. I guess in previous mild winters it would be something to get interested in, but for the majority its just going to be a cool and settled spell, with the main thrust of cold having been shunted further south over the last couple of days. Still, some encouraging signs of spring beginning to approach, especially with the sun already having enough power to generate a few home grown showers today.

Maybe a little interest for the far southeast over the next couple of days, otherwise a cool spell sums it up nicely. It could have been so much better though!

Bit of an IMBY post to be honest. For most of Scotland, northern Ireland, northwest England and Wales the cold spell was always coming from the north after the northeasterly.

[PB22]

Bit of an IMBY post to be honest. For most of Scotland, northern Ireland, northwest England and Wales the potential cold spell was always coming from the north after the northeasterly.

Just corrected your post