South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Frosty_wsm]

Are we looking at a potentially damaging storm on Sunday?

Worst of the winds will be on the southern flank of the low pressure, so they've been saying over on the mo thread, so if it tracks to the south east of the uk then we should miss out on the worst of it, here's hoping anyway as that looks like one very nasty storm!

[Nights King]

Are we looking at a potentially damaging storm on Sunday?

I never really pay much attention to storms unless they happen in say october when we have leaves on the trees because they just cause mess and dont do that much damage this time of year.

One that sticks in memory is 87 when i lived in high wycombe and it felled an entire forest when it came and removed half the roof along with taking out the green house and four trees in our garden.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I never really pay much attention to storms unless they happen in say october when we have leaves on the trees because they just cause mess and dont do that much damage this time of year.

One that sticks in memory is 87 when i lived in high wycombe and it felled an entire forest when it came and removed half the roof along with taking out the green house and four trees in our garden.

Evening mate, BBC graphics show snow over most of S wales and SW england sunday, i'm confused lol!

[monkeyuk]

The metoffice have removed the heavy rain warnings for us on Friday now. Just today left. No warnings for the LOW on Sunday yet but notice Ian mentioned possibility of snow for us in his 9.30 forecast!?

[Tattooed Fox]

What ever is going on with our weather. Sunday is supposed to be the day when we are getting some very low pressure, strong winds and rain was hinted at yesterday, (obvioulsly if the low does hit us then it could be alot worse, but BBC dont want to panic folks yet). Not snow! I was getting myself hyped up for some exciting weather with regards to the wind and rain. Considering we had sleet and snow here on Tuesday and did it not come to fruition, only looked pretty, so I thought that was going to be the scenario until next winter.

[theprophecyman]

Just had a quick peep in the Model forum, Won't for a minute and say I understand everything that is written in there (way over my head for my limited weather knowledge), but there does seem to be alot of discussion around potentially cold weather for next week (E/NE) with possible snow for South of England....

Just wondering if anyone with more knowledge than myself has any other views on this,

I totally understand in weather terms this is well into the future etc and so much can change

Edited February 25, 2010 by theprophecyman

[monkeyuk]

Just had a quick peep in the Model forum, Won't for a minute and say I understand everything that is written in there (way over my head for my limited weather knowledge), but there does seem to be alot of discussion around potentially cold weather for next week (E/NE) with possible snow for South of England....

Just wondering if anyone with more knowledge than myself has any other views on this,

I totally understand in weather terms this is well into the future etc and so much can change

Ditto theprophecyman - I read it and pretend I understand

Seems as though they are thinking (IMO) that we may get an easterly wind after the rain/wind on Sunday and then another low pressure moves up and bumps into the cold easterly giving snow for the south. Blizzards were mentioned as well

Guess it could all change though

[robnor1]

Ah the mythical easterly or unicorn that some on model output have been trying to lure to our shores on and off for the last few weeks.

Sorry it has arrived ............ for the Grampians today but Scotland doesn't count as we are in the more important S of the Kingdom.

[Ian Fergusson]

Ditto theprophecyman - I read it and pretend I understand

Seems as though they are thinking (IMO) that we may get an easterly wind after the rain/wind on Sunday and then another low pressure moves up and bumps into the cold easterly giving snow for the south. Blizzards were mentioned as well

Guess it could all change though

Hmmm. Well, irrespective of any snow risk fanaticism, the Sunday rapid cyclogenesis / Shapiro-Keyser event would be already enough, you would think, to keep any forum happy - it could be very nasty for NW Europe. Impact on Madeira, NW Iberia, NW France (let alone whatever it does here) could be very newsworthy. I've updated the blog on this - pls note UKMO lack of advisories is for a good reason at present (i.e., for Sunday - not this evening, which is gonna become decidely wet down south!).

[Andy Bown]

Very little to get excited about at the moment on the current model runs.

I know you posted that yesterday Mike, but have you seen today's 06z run!?

Hmmm. Well, irrespective of any snow risk fanaticism, the Sunday rapid cyclogenesis / Shapiro-Keyser event would be already enough, you would think, to keep any forum happy - it could be very nasty for NW Europe. Impact on Madeira, NW Iberia, NW France (let alone whatever it does here) could be very newsworthy. I've updated the blog on this - pls note UKMO lack of advisories is for a good reason at present (i.e., for Sunday - not this evening, which is gonna become decidely wet down south!).

Thanks for all your updates/posts on here Ian. Certainly interesting to have your input at various times of the day and not just when you're on the Points West early shift.

Cracking forecast today, spot on with both the few light showers but mostly dry/bright morning and the rain arrival time.

Edited February 25, 2010 by Andy Bown

[monkeyuk]

Hmmm. Well, irrespective of any snow risk fanaticism, the Sunday rapid cyclogenesis / Shapiro-Keyser event would be already enough, you would think, to keep any forum happy - it could be very nasty for NW Europe. Impact on Madeira, NW Iberia, NW France (let alone whatever it does here) could be very newsworthy. I've updated the blog on this - pls note UKMO lack of advisories is for a good reason at present (i.e., for Sunday - not this evening, which is gonna become decidely wet down south!).

Thanks again for your input Ian. always good to hear from experts. This might not be the right place but what does "cyclogenesis / Shapiro-Keyser event" mean?

Also, reading your blog, I see why the UKMO has not felt drawn into advisories for the Sunday. Fingers crossed for Madeira again.

Edited February 25, 2010 by monkeyuk

[SteveB]

Looking at the radar, the heaviest rain looks to be more towards central southern England & the east.

We might escape with just lighter periods of rain.

[Snowfan50]

Bbc had snow for the north of the west country, now its back to rain :lol:. I really hate the rainy low pressure weather at the moment, hate the damp muggy feel to the air.

[glosteroldboy]

Bbc had snow for the north of the west country, now its back to rain . I really hate the rainy low pressure weather at the moment, hate the damp muggy feel to the air.

I really take looking too far ahead at the radar forecasts for rain/snow with a pinch of salt, especially looking 4 or 5 days ahead. One thing I did notice is quite often around the Bristol channel area going up to Gloucester it can quite often be forecast as a band of white stuff for the region 1-3 days in advance then when it gets to the actual day 9 times out of 10 it the snow risk seems have shifted Northwards into the Midlands and beyond....is this a problem with the models placing it too far south? The general gist with a snow band seems to be about right but not the placement!

[Tattooed Fox]

Hi Guys,

Have a read of Ian Fergussons blog and see what you think about the action that is possibly going to happen on Sunday into Monday. Heaven help us if this hits us full on.

[Nights King]

Another pants day of weather here with pouring rain all afternoon!

Hardly spring like here even now with top temps of around 6.5c and currently 5.3c

I would be happy to see one last heavy snowy event and then for spring proper to arrive.

[Rich_Clements]

Another pants day of weather here with pouring rain all afternoon!

Hardly spring like here even now with top temps of around 6.5c and currently 5.3c

I would be happy to see one last heavy snowy event and then for spring proper to arrive.

Same here.

[MP-R]

I know you posted that yesterday Mike, but have you seen today's 06z run!?

Yes I most certainly did lol! What a change and how fantastic that would be if it were to turn out that way. I saw some magical figures come up on the N-W 10-DAY forecast for Bristol with 31mm of ppn next Thurs with a temp of 1C and 70% chance of snow then 12mm on friday, temp of -1C and 95% chance of snow. Now I look and it's all changed again. There's quite clearly a very unpredictable pattern setting up governed by the position of lows to the south and the high to the north.

What a switch around from yesterday though when just a boring old Azores High was on the scene.

Looking at the radar, the heaviest rain looks to be more towards central southern England & the east.

We might escape with just lighter periods of rain.

One I meant to quote in my most recent post. It's the same with when these features bring snow. With embedded cold air this system would probably bring mainly snow and like we saw late on 21st December the low stayed to the east with hardly anything here.

[MartUK]

Where is everybody has the rain scared everyone away

[Schmac]

Where is everybody has the rain scared everyone away

They're all in the Scottish thread, getting their snow fix!!

[kent]

Had my gas bill today £469 plus electric £270 Bring on the warmer weather before I starve to death lol.

[Nights King]

Just had a shower of sleet here

Looks interesting for sunday although i shall be in south wales for an interview which would be sods law!

current temp 3.0c

[Schmac]

Just had a shower of sleet here

Looks interesting for sunday although i shall be in south wales for an interview which would be sods law!

current temp 3.0c

You might stand more chance of seeing a bit of the "white stuff" in Wales though!

[Nights King]

You might stand more chance of seeing a bit of the "white stuff" in Wales though!

I should be safe over there i think afterall i don't have a wolly coat!

I am slightly concerned about sundays forecast because interview is at 11am. Is the bridge likely to be closed??

Id still love it if i see snow while there though!

Edited February 26, 2010 by mullender83

[Schmac]

I should be safe over there i think afterall i don't have a wolly coat!

I am slightly concerned about sundays forecast because interview is at 11am. Is the bridge likely to be closed??

Id still love it if i see snow while there though!

I think it's only the South coast that is at risk from the really strong winds...

Mind you, things change (weather-wise!)...

Good luck with the interview!