Model Output Discussion

[karyo]

the NAEFS fi show a scandi trough becoming main influence during latter part week 2. not too much spread on this scenario so i am not too surprised to see the meto 15 dayer talking about the cold possibly hanging on in the north and west. i would be inclined to expect a watered down version of what we went through second half of feb - further north. possibly a west based -NAO with us warm side of the trough could be the result which ties in with the second half march outlook from the meto this morning.

The METO outlook says the cold may hang around in the north not the west.

If you also consider the fact that they mention the possibility for the weather to be drier in the southeast, that implies to me that the high will be over the continent so eventually mild southwesterlies will affect all of us.

Karyo

[TEITS]

The GFS ensembles seem quite bullish about the no easterly scenario. The European models see it differently ( ECM UKMO GME) with big differences at only t + 96. It's an interesting little skirmish developing but I tend to side with TEITS in that the Euro models are not totally convincing. No doubt we'll get some answers tonight.

Yes the 06Z ensembles confirm my feelings that the UKMO/ECM are wrong. Hard to explain but instinctively I feel the GFS is right and would be amazed if tonights ECM/UKMO 12Zs continue with the trend. I fully expect the ECM/UKMO to trend towards the GFS with the Met O ammending their forecasts tomorrow morning.

Remember when the UKMO model was predicting cold E,lys with snow and the BBC/Met O forecasts went with this. At the time the GFS didn't agree with the UKMO and around 24hrs later the BBC/Met O changed their forecasts. Well exactly the same will happen again and would be surprised if snow is mentioned in tomorrows 6-15 day outlook.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes the 06Z ensembles confirm my feelings that the UKMO/ECM are wrong. Hard to explain but instinctively I feel the GFS is right and would be amazed if tonights ECM/UKMO 12Zs continue with the trend. I fully expect the ECM/UKMO to trend towards the GFS with the Met O ammending their forecasts tomorrow morning.

Remember when the UKMO model was predicting cold E,lys with snow and the BBC/Met O forecasts went with this. At the time the GFS didn't agree with the UKMO and around 24hrs later the BBC/Met O changed their forecasts. Well exactly the same will happen again and would be surprised if snow is mentioned in tomorrows 6-15 day outlook.

funny you say that bbc forecaster talking cold from the east last night lol.

if it dont happen then im sure winter is over but its lovely out there today.

[cooling climate]

Yes the 06Z ensembles confirm my feelings that the UKMO/ECM are wrong. Hard to explain but instinctively I feel the GFS is right and would be amazed if tonights ECM/UKMO 12Zs continue with the trend. I fully expect the ECM/UKMO to trend towards the GFS with the Met O ammending their forecasts tomorrow morning.

Remember when the UKMO model was predicting cold E,lys with snow and the BBC/Met O forecasts went with this. At the time the GFS didn't agree with the UKMO and around 24hrs later the BBC/Met O changed their forecasts. Well exactly the same will happen again and would be surprised if snow is mentioned in tomorrows 6-15 day outlook.

The thing is though TEITS it was only the UKMO that was showing the easterly and even

when they stopped showing it the Met still forcast the easterly.

A brave call though to go against the Euro's.

[Climate Man]

06 GFS showing better alignment for cold, similar to that shown pre- weekend. Still not huge potential for snow but will certainly remain below average.

Woops 12Z

Edited March 2, 2010 by Climate Man

[Thundery wintry showers]

You mean the 12Z?

The HP is certainly positioned further north and east on this run, which means that apart from the brief cloudy wet interlude for eastern areas from that Saturday North Sea low, it would be sunny for all. The HP is too close on this occasion to allow much in the way of showers, or even cloud, to affect SE areas by the looks of it. Nonetheless, some evidence of a little backtracking towards the UKMO/ECM.

[karyo]

06 GFS showing better alignment for cold, similar to that shown pre- weekend. Still not huge potential for snow but will certainly remain below average.

Change it to 12z GFS and you'll be spot on!

It offers some really cold nights over the weekend and early next week!

Karyo

[kold weather]

Yeah the 12z is much slower with the evolution and much more realisitic IMO as well, the 12z would give some very nice weather indeed I'd have thought, by day it'd be fairly cool, by night very cold and frosty, but its the type of pattern that will moderate slowly once the cold uppers start to get mixed out...

I'm very happy for the HP to settle near the UK however, hopefully the dry air will finally dry out the field I have to walk across, fed up with it being a bog now, the sun at this time of year is really going to start helping.

[MR EXTREMES]

well well well what a flip round from this mornings outputs gfs follows the ukmo and ecm.

and there pretty good there could well be chance of something wintry on offer in the east and south east at times.

i think it was certain that a easterly of some type would come off it had been shown for days nothing extreme but nothing to mild either intresting though nice backtrack by the gfs.

[karyo]

The 12z UKMO is still going with the low dropping down the eastern side of the country and then setting a short lived easterly!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=72&carte=1021

Karyo

[kold weather]

Yeah, with the evolution as well it would probably be quite a strong easterly for the time of year in terms of upper temps coming in, the GFS has the strongest thrust of cold maybe just to the south of us, but the UKMO looks like goes right over the south, not sure how showery it would be, but the UKMO certainly would be interesting for a short time.

[Climate Man]

Certainly, as we have seen many times this winter, anything particularly mild is pushed well back into FI.

[johnholmes]

yes, to my eyes I would say that GFS is nearer to UK Met ideas of T+96 area rather than its 06Z run suggested this morning. Not huge but its certainly a change.

After my little sit in the spring sunshine this morning, days of much over 10C look rather thin on the ground again for the next 2 weeks or so.

[The PIT]

UKMO fax looks very interesting with the low pressure in 528 air and at the moment no warm sector. Hill snow anybody ???? GFS pushes the feature well to the east of us.

Either way it looks like the cool spell continuing.

[snowfish]

yes, to my eyes I would say that GFS is nearer to UK Met ideas of T+96 area rather than its 06Z run suggested this morning. Not huge but its certainly a change.

After my little sit in the spring sunshine this morning, days of much over 10C look rather thin on the ground again for the next 2 weeks or so.

John

An extremely enjoyable couple of days here in the southeast with my father walking the dog around lunchtime. nice. warm sunshine out of the breeze and a taste of spring. However, we should not be fooled into thinking (as I am sure you won't be lol) spring is here - it is, but winter looks as though it may pay us one or two more visits before she decides to leave the scene. GFS SLOWLY coming into line with the other models and I have to say some of them to my inexperienced eye, look VERY cold with strong easterly influence - Will be looking to tonights GFS run to see if it has decided that the euros, ecm, ukmo are the way ahead..... ?

Edited March 2, 2010 by snowfish

[MR EXTREMES]

yes, to my eyes I would say that GFS is nearer to UK Met ideas of T+96 area rather than its 06Z run suggested this morning. Not huge but its certainly a change.

After my little sit in the spring sunshine this morning, days of much over 10C look rather thin on the ground again for the next 2 weeks or so.

it alright john cant wait until the models start throwing the magic 18c + our way,but at the same time be intreting to see if we have a cold shot before the real mild kicks in just to add to the stats lol:whistling:

[Cheese Rice]

UKMO fax looks very interesting with the low pressure in 528 air and at the moment no warm sector. Hill snow anybody ???? GFS pushes the feature well to the east of us.

Either way it looks like the cool spell continuing.

Yep just had a look, potential for snowfall across nearly all of the UK with bands of snow moving from North to south, if it were to come of as shown around 3 bands of potentially heavy snow spreading south across the country. The risk wouldn't be for high ground either with perhaps even the far south coast getting in on the action. But this will change in due course, hopefully for the better.

[kold weather]

What has to be noted is there is good agreement on a very short but very potent easterly thrust heading into Europe from the models, ow if the high does build just far enough north then the south will get a very potent blast indeed, probably nearly as cold as you can go in terms of 850hpa profiles for March. Main risk for this is for places further south like France and also places like Germany have a good shot at getting a very cold spell for the time of year, however its very 50-50 for the UK. I'd imagine though the UKMO 850hpa profiles for any easterly would be easily below -10C and probably closer to -12C...though its obviously impossible to know!

[Duane S.]

As expected, GFS coming into line with the Euros (watch the ECM throw a spanner in now! :lol: ).

Definately nothing mild in sight as yet again any mild getting put back. The only thing left to sort out will be will it be cool/cold, predominately dry and frosty at night or will it be cool/cold with snow showers in places.

Surprise surprise it's looking like the main driver will (again) end up being a scandi trough (despite what most models are showing). This has been a recurring theme this winter and not always for the best either. Maybe this time it could show us what it is really capable of (although I suspect it will only have the net effect of cutting off the reminances of any weak Easterly still left). But who knows... I certainly don't!

My main concern now (for purely slefish reasons) is for the week after next and the possibilities of warmer Southerlies in central Europe (which actually looks quite feasable). Would be about right as I'll be in the Alps snowboarding then!

[Tom D]

+72 ECM looks VERY nice :lol:

Looks like the GFS is on its own for this time so it's going to have to move in line, probably at the 18z. I can't imagine the ECM/UKMO moving away from this at that range.

[kent]

According to some on the two thread, there was moderate to critical data missing today which could have affected the GFS output today.

[bluearmy]

According to some on the two thread, there was moderate to critical data missing today which could have affected the GFS output today.

that was a joke by neil. if you read it, its quite an amusing post. no missing data. given that gfs is still a fair distance away from the euro's you'd have to take the middle ground of the shortwave hitting holland and us receiving a warm sector with cold occlusion to follow. what the short sharp easterly flow that follows delivers is a complete shot in the dark for the time being.

[kent]

that was a joke by neil. if you read it, its quite an amusing post. no missing data. given that gfs is still a fair distance away from the euro's you'd have to take the middle ground of the shortwave hitting holland and us receiving a warm sector with cold occlusion to follow. what the short sharp easterly flow that follows delivers is a complete shot in the dark for the time being.

Thanks for clearing that one up lol only a few people have been scratching their heads over GFS today, including me. Another learning kerb.

[cooling climate]

that was a joke by neil. if you read it, its quite an amusing post. no missing data. given that gfs is still a fair distance away from the euro's you'd have to take the middle ground of the shortwave hitting holland and us receiving a warm sector with cold occlusion to follow. what the short sharp easterly flow that follows delivers is a complete shot in the dark for the time being.

I'm afraid I would have to disagree with that statement because the GFS is already starting to

backtrack from the 06z output. On top of that the Euro models are almost identical at t72 so I

can not see them being wrong.

[johnholmes]

According to some on the two thread, there was moderate to critical data missing today which could have affected the GFS output today.

I wish I had a tenner for every time that comment is trotted out when the output is not what people want to see!

Look back over the past couple of years, I cannot recall a single occasion when that was said when the model showed cold!

Edited March 2, 2010 by johnholmes