METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Dec 2010 to Sunday 19 Dec 2010:

The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, parts of the north and west of the country may be drier than normal. Sunshine amounts are likely to be generally above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue to be below or well below average, with widespread overnight frosts, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, giving the risk of further rain, sleet and snow in some parts.

Updated: 1142 on Sat 20 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Dec 2010 to Monday 20 Dec 2010:

The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, parts of the north and west of the country may be drier than normal. Sunshine amounts are likely to be generally above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue to be below or well below average, with widespread overnight frost, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow here.

Updated: 1154 on Sun 21 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Dec 2010 to Tuesday 21 Dec 2010:

The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, parts of the north and west of the country may be drier than normal. Sunshine amounts are likely to be generally above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue to be below or well below average, with widespread overnight frost, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow here.

Updated: 1200 on Mon 22 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

exactly worded the same as the previous day...

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 8 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 22 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue well below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. There is some chance of it turning less cold, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1157 on Tue 23 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Dec 2010 to Thursday 23 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue well below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. There is some chance of it turning less cold, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1200 on Wed 24 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 10 Dec 2010 to Friday 24 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue well below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. There is some chance of it turning less cold, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1158 on Thu 25 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Dec 2010 to Saturday 25 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, with a risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue well below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. However, some western and southern parts may be less cold at the start of the period in particular, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1205 on Fri 26 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Dec 2010 to Monday 27 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, with a risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. However, some western and southern parts may be less cold at the start of the period in particular, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1157 on Sun 28 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Dec 2010 to Monday 27 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, with a risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. However, some western and southern parts may be less cold at the start of the period in particular, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1206 on Mon 29 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 29 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, with a risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. However, some western and southern parts may be less cold at the start of the period in particular, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1318 on Tue 30 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Dec 2010 to Thursday 30 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, with a risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. However, some western and southern parts may be less cold at the start of the period in particular, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1222 on Wed 1 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Dec 2010 to Friday 31 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, with a risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. However, some northwestern parts may be less cold at the start of the period, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1214 on Thu 2 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Dec 2010 to Saturday 1 Jan 2011:

For the remainder of December and into the start of the New Year, temperatures look set to remain well below average for much of the UK, with often widespread frost and ice. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many, with further snowfall a distinct possibility in some places. However, western parts of the UK may see more in the way of drier weather. Amounts of sunshine should be around or slightly above average for many.

Updated: 1214 on Fri 3 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Dec 2010 to Saturday 1 Jan 2011:

For the remainder of December and into the start of the New Year, temperatures look set to remain well below average for much of the UK, with often widespread frost and ice. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many, with further snowfall a distinct possibility in some places. However, western parts of the UK may see more in the way of drier weather. Amounts of sunshine should be around or slightly above average for many.

Updated: 1153 on Sat 4 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Dec 2010 to Monday 3 Jan 2011:

For the remainder of December and into the start of the New Year, temperatures look set to remain well below average for much of the UK, with often widespread frost and ice. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many, with further snowfall a distinct possibility in some places. However, western parts of the UK may see more in the way of drier weather. Amounts of sunshine should be around or slightly above average for many.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 5 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Dec 2010 to Monday 3 Jan 2011:

For the remainder of December and into the start of the New Year, temperatures look set to remain well below average for much of the UK, with often widespread frost and ice. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many, with further snowfall a distinct possibility in some places. However, western parts of the UK may see more in the way of drier weather. Amounts of sunshine should be around or slightly above average for many.

Updated: 1200 on Mon 6 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 5 Jan 2011:

For the remainder of December and into the start of the New Year, temperatures look set to remain very cold, well below average for much of the UK, with often widespread frost and the risk of ice. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many, with further snowfall a distinct possibility in places. However, western parts of the UK may see more in the way of drier weather. Amounts of sunshine should be around or slightly above average for many.

Updated: 1219 on Tue 7 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Dec 2010 to Thursday 6 Jan 2011:

For the remainder of December and into the start of the New Year, temperatures look set to remain very cold, well below average for much of the UK, with often widespread frost and the risk of ice. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many, with further snowfall a distinct possibility in places. However, western parts of the UK may see more in the way of drier weather. Amounts of sunshine should be around or slightly above average for many.

Updated: 1208 on Wed 8 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Dec 2010 to Friday 7 Jan 2011:

For the remainder of December and into the start of the New Year, temperatures look set to remain well below average for much of the UK, with a risk of widespread frost and ice. However, some southern and western parts may turn less cold at times. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many, with further snowfall a distinct possibility in places. Western parts of the UK are most likely to see more in the way of drier weather. Amounts of sunshine should be around or slightly above average.

Updated: 1149 on Thu 9 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[johnholmes]

hi

Before the new update posted by Stu I'll drop this in.

Some of you may remember discussions about what modles UK Met used at differing time scales. Its not just as precise as I hoped for but , from the horses mouth so to speak, I got this reply to my e mail to a contact.

For the T+0 to T+36 we use our own regional mode – NAE (North Atlantic & European), although we can tweak it if ECMWF and French are indicating something else.

For T+48 to T+84 we use our global model, with input for most other National Met Service global models, such as France, Germany. ECMWF, GFS, Canadian, Japanese, etc.

For T+96 onwards we tend to use the Ensemble forecasts for ECMWF, GFS and our own UK model. This is where the model is tweaked very slightly at the T+0 stage and run forward to se if the minor tweaks have any impact on the outcome later on. It is a measure of the predictability of the atmosphere at that time.

Edited December 10, 2010 by johnholmes

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Dec 2010 to Saturday 8 Jan 2011:

During the last week of December and the first week of January, easterly to northerly winds are likely to persist over the UK. Therefore, temperatures look set to remain well below average for much of the UK, with a risk of widespread frost and ice. However, some southern and western parts may turn less cold at times. Further snowfall is a distinct possibility in places. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many or just above average along parts of the East Coast. Western regions of the UK are most likely to see more in the way of drier weather. Hours of sunshine should be around or slightly above average, particularly in western parts of England and Wales.

Updated: 1142 on Fri 10 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 26 Dec 2010 to Sunday 9 Jan 2011:

Continuing unsettled and often windy with further wintry showers and perhaps some longer outbreaks of snow in places. Temperatures look set to be generally below average for much of the UK, with a risk of frost and ice in places. However, some milder spells are likely with rain rather than snow, especially in the south.

Updated: 1158 on Sat 11 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Terminal Moraine]

That sounds like a recipe for a few classic cold/mild battleground situations in the further outlook so always the potential for some heavy falls of snow.

It also looks as though the potential milder solutions being expressed by the furthest reaches of both the GFS and ECM are being embraced by the Met' Office.

Edited December 11, 2010 by Terminal Moraine

[the gas lad]

sorry mods dont know where to put this

from Joe B

SATURDAY EARLY

EUROPE TO WARM AROUND CHRISTMAS AND THROUGH THE NEW YEAR.

A break is coming a break is coming and not just some 3 day let up in the northwest. In the wake of what will be a severely cold period for much Europe through the 20th ( again the cold is coming back into the northwest in a few days, I see a chance for warmth in larger scale, one that could leave us with a break before there is any reloading, once we get to and beyond Christmas. As is my habit, I just want to give you a heads up on what is coming after a period of cold that will be something to be hold... and if you be holding something, make sure you have your gloves on or your hands may freeze on contact