Model Output Discussion

[frostyjoe]

Tuesday is not looking like a Snow day for anybody out of Scotland on the latest charts. The South looks like it may even be dry. Snow showers now showing for Wednesday but I have low confidence on that given this is all constantly changing and downgrading.

It is for us well maxes of 3-4c tomorrow then 2-3c on Tuesday

[mushymanrob]

i predict mass dissappointment for those expecting a decent dumping of snow, in fact i doubt there will be that much around. ive seen synoptics like this before in late march and often people just read the charts as winter charts...it isnt...its spring, and to get a wintry scene out of these synoptics at this time of the year is much more difficult. the uppers arent cold enough, the daylength is longer and even the predicted daytime maxs are well about melting point. overnight snowfall ?... possible, but id suggest not getting ones hopes up too much! plus the absence of the 'big guns' on here (snowlovers) is another pointer to a 'non event'.

by thursday a more normal regime albeit cool is looking like taking over, there will be some very heavy showers

[azores92]

it looks like there has been a typical downgrade on the intensity of this front for tomorrow and early next week. what was originally 2 inches is now about 15mm.

[frostyjoe]

i predict mass dissappointment for those expecting a decent dumping of snow, in fact i doubt there will be that much around. ive seen synoptics like this before in late march and often people just read the charts as winter charts...it isnt...its spring, and to get a wintry scene out of these synoptics at this time of the year is much more difficult. the uppers arent cold enough, the daylength is longer and even the predicted daytime maxs are well about melting point. overnight snowfall ?... possible, but id suggest not getting ones hopes up too much! plus the absence of the 'big guns' on here (snowlovers) is another pointer to a 'non event'.

by thursday a more normal regime albeit cool is looking like taking over, there will be some very heavy showers

So you don't think 2-3c maxes through day under cloud will support snow.. Due to cloud and showers I'd say maxes will be lower they always are yesterday was 2c colder so was the day before .. I'd say maybe 1c max on Tuesday.. There is no downgrade for scotland or ni infact it's an upgrade for me

Edited March 28, 2010 by frostyjoe

[MR EXTREMES]

So you don't think 2-3c maxes through day under cloud will support snow.. Due to cloud and showers I'd say maxes will be lower they always are yesterday was 2c colder so was the day before .. I'd say maybe 1c max on Tuesday.. There is no downgrade for scotland or ni infact it's an upgrade for me

absolutely an upgrade for northern england northwards.

its true it is spring,

yes clocks have gone forward.

but like april 08 that makes little difference although in spring convection can be good given the right uppers then it could be intresting.

but considering april 08 snow fell during the early hours it was cold enough,

so to to rule anything out is a silly move although futher north you are the better.

certainly agree a none event in the south but maybe midlands north it could be intresting.

still below average is on the cards thats enough for me whether it snows or not well its wait and see moment.

i would not be suprised to see the weather hitting the news headlines sometime this week.:lol:

[johnholmes]

The 00z run shows for this area.

Extra (with more detail) shows 18mm in 3 time periods between 09z Mon and 21z Wed

GFS basic shows 12-14mm

NAE shows 10-11mm.

Quite a drop from the 18z Fri showing 64mm

00z sat=55mm

06z=45mm

12z=36mm.

This is pretty normal I have to say. Just once in a while GFS will flag up a serious rainfall situation and hold on to it. More usually, from my several years using it to do Alerts, it drops the amount as we get nearer the event.

[Guest]

The 00z run shows for this area.

Extra (with more detail) shows 18mm in 3 time periods between 09z Mon and 21z Wed

GFS basic shows 12-14mm

NAE shows 10-11mm.

Quite a drop from the 18z Fri showing 64mm

00z sat=55mm

06z=45mm

12z=36mm.

This is pretty normal I have to say. Just once in a while GFS will flag up a serious rainfall situation and hold on to it. More usually, from my several years using it to do Alerts, it drops the amount as we get nearer the event.

Is the over-doing of rain maybe a similar glitch to GFS over-doing wind at times too? It does seem to over cook low pressures but the boffins who run the model must know that by now.

As for the precip next week, there is still a lot of precip around for my area, 61mm from Mon 09z to Wed 21z. Most of it is forecast between Tues morning and Weds lunchtime. More than 30mm of precip is forecast to fall as snow from Tuesday night to Wednesday lunchtime. From past experience that means we'll definitely get either a foot of snow or a shower of rain...

[Terminal Moraine]

The 00z GFS continues to shift the focus of the rainfall/snowfall further north and now has it over the far north of England and south west Scotland. The precipitation total for my own area is now down to about 26 mm over the whole period but, as John says, it's not unusual to see a steady downgrade like this. The best I can hope for is that half of it falls as snow.

Easter is looking decidedly unsettled as one low moves in on Friday and another on Monday, there again there's nothing particularly unusual about that.

[snowingman]

06Z

Well..... this is a major snow event from midnight monday through to midday Wednesday for "some areas".

Most likely - South Scotland, N Ireland and N England.

The rain system moving in from the SW quickly turns to snow across N Ireland and then pivots about these areas for up to 36 hours...

After such a terrific winter - what a way to go out!!

Could be 20 inches of snow on high ground!! and still cold after for 48 hours... watch this space

No downgrades please!!

[The PIT]

Massive downgrade for the cold snap away from Scotland although two days are pretty cold well very cold for England before recovering back to wards normal. Still not a bad cold snap though. ECM also backs the move away from previous rather extreme cold shown although it has been flipping around somewhat lately.

[frostyjoe]

06Z

Well..... this is a major snow event from midnight monday through to midday Wednesday for "some areas".

Most likely - South Scotland, N Ireland and N England.

The rain system moving in from the SW quickly turns to snow across N Ireland and then pivots about these areas for up to 36 hours...

After such a terrific winter - what a way to go out!!

Could be 20 inches of snow on high ground!! and still cold after for 48 hours... watch this space

No downgrades please!!

Yea the 36 hour thing will happen but the snow will be very light.. And the dp will be above 0c even though temps are 2-3c .. I had this happen 3 times in a stalled front this year..

[Tucco]

In someways this event could produce pretty severe weather. There's a good chance this will the windiest spell of the whole winter here. Lots of precip some of which will be snow. Wed looks particulary nasty. Maybe a proper blizzard here something that was missing here over the winter.

Mark

[Guest]

In someways this event could produce pretty severe weather. There's a good chance this will the windiest spell of the whole winter here. Lots of precip some of which will be snow. Wed looks particulary nasty. Maybe a proper blizzard here something that was missing here over the winter.

Mark

Certainly potential for something quite spectacular, either rain or snow.

I hope no-one else does what I just did. I started clicking through the GFS charts and wondered why they aren't working. Only to remember just before kicking the computer that the clocks going forward means later charts

[frostyjoe]

Certainly potential for something quite spectacular, either rain or snow.

I hope no-one else does what I just did. I started clicking through the GFS charts and wondered why they aren't working. Only to remember just before kicking the computer that the clocks going forward means later charts

lol ha thats what i just did there now.. i hope that dosnt mean a downgrade!

[mushymanrob]

So you don't think 2-3c maxes through day under cloud will support snow.. Due to cloud and showers I'd say maxes will be lower they always are yesterday was 2c colder so was the day before .. I'd say maybe 1c max on Tuesday.. There is no downgrade for scotland or ni infact it's an upgrade for me

nope... not settling anyway, in the air? possible, but thats assuming that the max temps are 2-3c ... i dont buy that, i expect no lower then 5c as a max but due to cloud cover the mins may well be above 0c too. in fact i struggle to remember any time when daytime max's have been that low for this time of the year (talking lowland uk), ok mr data and others might be able to correct that perception.

of course some favoured places will se snow (high ground in the north esp)but generally there will be nowt. just wet, cold, windy and largely overcast from monday to wednseday.

[frostyjoe]

nope... not settling anyway, in the air? possible, but thats assuming that the max temps are 2-3c ... i dont buy that, i expect no lower then 5c as a max but due to cloud cover the mins may well be above 0c too. in fact i struggle to remember any time when daytime max's have been that low for this time of the year (talking lowland uk), ok mr data and others might be able to correct that perception.

of course some favoured places will se snow (high ground in the north esp)but generally there will be nowt. just wet, cold, windy and largely overcast from monday to wednseday.

eh? we had 1c maxes at the end of februray... lol i think 3-4c tbh as the temps need to drop alot tonight and thats going to take a long time!

Edited March 28, 2010 by frostyjoe

[mushymanrob]

eh? we had 1c maxes at the end of februray... lol i think 3-4c tbh as the temps need to drop alot tonight and thats going to take a long time!

i dont understand you, whats 1c in feb got to do with it? i made no comparison with february and the last week of march!!! which is what i was alluding to 'at this time of the year'.

as expected, the countryfile forecast has maxs well up on whats needed for lying snow away from northern high ground.

[frostyjoe]

i dont understand you, whats 1c in feb got to do with it? i made no comparison with february and the last week of march!!! which is what i was alluding to 'at this time of the year'.

as expected, the countryfile forecast has maxs well up on whats needed for lying snow away from northern high ground.

im talking about snow falling.. i hate the way this forum downgrades everywhere else just because england gets downgraded... it is possible for scotland and ni to be upgraded and the 1c max was at the end of february

Edited March 28, 2010 by frostyjoe

[Cheese Rice]

im talking about snow falling.. i hate the way this forum downgrades everywhere else just because england gets downgraded... it is possible for scotland and ni to be upgraded! and the 1c max was at the end of february!

Nothing has upgraded, the low is further north which places different areas in the firing line. Anyway it is unlikely that you will see much in the way of snow, falling snow yes, but lying snow is unlikely with temporary accumulations in heavier bursts of wet snow/sleet.

Edited March 28, 2010 by 10123

[frostyjoe]

Nothing has upgraded, the low is further north which places different areas in the firing line. Anyway it is unlikely that you will see much in the way of snow, falling snow yes, but lying snow is unlikely with temporary accumulations in heavier bursts of wet snow/sleet.

temps have upgraded for me... yesterday they were 5c now they are 2c.. and the band has moved over me.. thats why im saying ni and scotland are upgraded. Id just love it to fall .. and im sure the hill above me will have inches of it if it goes planned the way it is now..

[lukemc]

Hi,

How similar is this upcoming event to April 2008 - could we expect something similar as April 2008 had lying snow even down to the south coast not saying that will happen this time as the low pressure is further north but could Northern parts of England expect something similar - and where the synoptics in April 2008 similar? It would be interesting to know what the thickest snowdepth recorded in lowland England in April is does anyone know that and what was the snowiest April on record?

Luke

[Cheese Rice]

GFS is rubbish for this area, the low is too far north which ruins everything. It wouldn't take much for me to get snow either, looking at the GFS it shows temps of 2-4.c during the day for this area which shows how close I am to getting some snow.

[SP1986]

I wouldn't get too hung upon the temperatures - snow suggestion by the GFS. Only a few days ago it was suggesting 0C max for much of northern England tomorrow so you do have to take these GFS specific forecasts with extreme suspicion, although the general pattern predictions have been quite good by the GFS.

[snowmadchrisuk]

A bit of an upgrade from the 6z , although out of Scotland , Wednesday is still looking the more likely day for England to see something .

[Guest]

A bit of an upgrade from the 6z , although out of Scotland , Wednesday is still looking the more likely day for England to see something .

The 06z GFS has certainly upgraded the amount of precip for Mon-Wed in this area. If that's rain/sleet/snow, who knows? Well over 100mm is now forecast which would be a bit of a worry, although the GFS should back off that amount. Met-O forecast looks more realistic.