Model Output Discussion

[mushymanrob]

im talking about snow falling.. i hate the way this forum downgrades everywhere else just because england gets downgraded... it is possible for scotland and ni to be upgraded and the 1c max was at the end of february

i think there is some confusion here, im not doubting for 1 milisecond that your 1c max was in feb, however, im refering to the last week in march and its from this week onwards that im struggling to recall daytime maxs of 2-3c. as it happens the majority of the population live in lower lying areas so the perspective generally will be from that, and the temps next week will max well above that 2-3c figure you quote for the bulk of the country. i would also point out that i for one fully agrees that favoured northern highland areas will see snow.. as for 'upgrades' and 'downgrades', thats purely subjective, as far as im concerned a downgrade is a turn for the worse as im not lover of the cold.

[Derp Patrol]

2-3C maxes in late March/Early April are extremely hard to reach, the equivalent would be reaching 22C or 23C at the moment. GFS is very bad at predicting temperatures IMO. Even under cloud cover, most areas will be above 5C, which is still well below average, and I expect many southern areas will stay in double figures. April 2008 was an exceptional event, it's very rare to see lying snow in London in early April.

[Guest]

i think there is some confusion here, im not doubting for 1 milisecond that your 1c max was in feb, however, im refering to the last week in march and its from this week onwards that im struggling to recall daytime maxs of 2-3c. as it happens the majority of the population live in lower lying areas so the perspective generally will be from that, and the temps next week will max well above that 2-3c figure you quote for the bulk of the country. i would also point out that i for one fully agrees that favoured northern highland areas will see snow.. as for 'upgrades' and 'downgrades', thats purely subjective, as far as im concerned a downgrade is a turn for the worse as im not lover of the cold.

30th March 1985 had low maxima across a good portion of the UK of 3ºC. As late as 28th April 1985 saw some maxima at 4ºC. But that's rare.

[TonyH]

i think there is some confusion here, im not doubting for 1 milisecond that your 1c max was in feb, however, im refering to the last week in march and its from this week onwards that im struggling to recall daytime maxs of 2-3c. as it happens the majority of the population live in lower lying areas so the perspective generally will be from that, and the temps next week will max well above that 2-3c figure you quote for the bulk of the country. i would also point out that i for one fully agrees that favoured northern highland areas will see snow.. as for 'upgrades' and 'downgrades', thats purely subjective, as far as im concerned a downgrade is a turn for the worse as im not lover of the cold.

Last week of April 1981, heavy snow in the Midlands and Pennines, maxes 2-4c widely.

[frostyjoe]

i think there is some confusion here, im not doubting for 1 milisecond that your 1c max was in feb, however, im refering to the last week in march and its from this week onwards that im struggling to recall daytime maxs of 2-3c. as it happens the majority of the population live in lower lying areas so the perspective generally will be from that, and the temps next week will max well above that 2-3c figure you quote for the bulk of the country. i would also point out that i for one fully agrees that favoured northern highland areas will see snow.. as for 'upgrades' and 'downgrades', thats purely subjective, as far as im concerned a downgrade is a turn for the worse as im not lover of the cold.

erm im talking about my area.. not england or anywhere else.. see.. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=gfsh500;sess= monday maxes are 3c.. tuesdays are 1c..

[Ben_Cambs]

Although off topic, 2nd April 1917 was a widespread ice day for the country, so even ice days are possible at this time of year.

A very unsettled outlook from the models, with the emphasis of the snow being shifted further north, I wouldn't be suprised to see a couple more shifts before Tuesday. Wintry showers will follow on from the LP when it clears off on Wednesday from the North-East. Flooding may become an issue for some by this point, large accumilations of snow will be reserved for the Pennines and Scottish Highlands. Easter weekend looks like it will be unsettled for all, with the chance of snow on the day itself in the Scottish Highlands. The latest teleconnections support the possible scenario of HP building to our west after the Easter weekend, but until then, it will remain unsettled for all, snow for some, generally on the higher ground but not exclusivly so.

Edited March 28, 2010 by Snowman0697

[kold weather]

At this time of year your gonig to struggle to get settling snow from a flow that is like this in the daytime unless you are on high ground or up in Scotland. The 06z is good for more western areas, a big downgrade for eastern areas...but one way or the other I think with the low mvong this side one half of the country could get snow, whilst the other may have just rain from this system, but timing will be so very key!

[frostyjoe]

have the colder uppers got into the north of scotland yet?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

2-3C maxes in late March/Early April are extremely hard to reach, the equivalent would be reaching 22C or 23C at the moment. GFS is very bad at predicting temperatures IMO. Even under cloud cover, most areas will be above 5C, which is still well below average, and I expect many southern areas will stay in double figures. April 2008 was an exceptional event, it's very rare to see lying snow in London in early April.

April 08 was certainly an occurence we haven't seen for a few years but it wasn't exceptional (as welcome as it was!) There have been many years where snow has occured with at least temporary accumulations in early April in southern areas so it is not a rare occurence. Indeed Christmas often sees less snow than Easter.

As for the upcoming pattern - unsettled and cold at first, temps becoming nearer average later.

Still changeable for Easter itself.

[Hairy Celt]

have the colder uppers got into the north of scotland yet?

Hang on a sec while I pop out with my balloon...

Edited March 28, 2010 by Hairy Celt

[frostyjoe]

Hang on a sec while I pop out with my balloon...

Ok then tell me when your done

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Not bad depths for the first of April...

[frostyjoe]

Not bad depths for the first of April...

Goodness me.. That sort of gives us a hint that the majority of areas in Scotland were the front goes will see lying snow

[Hairy Celt]

Ok then tell me when your done

About -5C just now, lost the balloon though, you owe me

[snowfish]

Looking like a non-event for us in the SE yet again....Might as well bank on the high building after it which will bring warm spring sunshine and give the flowers a chance - at last!

anyone care to counter this? Would be interested to hear....especially as the 528 is south of us I cannot understand why any precip wouldn't be at least sleet....Thanks.

[The PIT]

Damn forgot now that clocks have altered everything is later. Now is there a front forming over Scotland???

[Geordiesnow]

Looks like higher parts of Southern Scotland and Northern Ireland could get alot of snow this week, i would not be surprised too see reports of snow at lower levels in these areas either.

For the rest of us, its going to be quite grotty with strong winds and rain unless you are in the centre of the low pressure system but at least the weather is more interesting now.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It won't be the greatest of weeks for outdoor activities- as I suspected, the much sought-after downgrade of the snow prospects means that for many, instead of it being a case of sunshine, snow showers and 6C, it will be a case of overcast skies, persistent rain & sleet and 4C, and a biting northerly or north-easterly wind- could approach gale force in exposed parts. However, that isn't the whole story because it may turn drier, brighter and warm across the southeast on Tuesday as a result of the low being further west, while on Wednesday/Thursday there could be snow at low levels for some, particularly in the north.

A more "normal" look for the Easter weekend- probably classic April sunshine and showers, with temperatures near or slightly below normal.

[The PIT]

Downgrade continues with the event now a one dayer away from Scotland. If the trend continues we may not even notice it bar the rainfall.

[frostyjoe]

What's anyones opinions of ni seeing this fall as snow tomorrow?? I really cnt see temps dropping to 2-3c wouldn't the cloud stop this unless a front is coming through before band???

[Geordiesnow]

Not really a downgrade, Pit. It's as you menturned, the snow risk has moved to a different area as the low is further north than first predicted. As i said, higher parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland could see alot of snowfall and lower levels in these areas are in the risk of snowfall also.

[Derp Patrol]

Looking like a non-event for us in the SE yet again....Might as well bank on the high building after it which will bring warm spring sunshine and give the flowers a chance - at last!

anyone care to counter this? Would be interested to hear....especially as the 528 is south of us I cannot understand why any precip wouldn't be at least sleet....Thanks.

We were never really in the event anyway. I expect in the SE, this week will be cloudy, wet and cool with temperatures 8-11C, still quite cold for the time of year though. I'm more interested in this azores ridge, possibly bringing the first 20C of the year as the average date for the first 20C is in about a week or so I believe. It would be nice to have some sunshine to go with the lovely blossom that has started to show in the past week, most of the trees down my road are now blossomed and it doesn't look as good without the sun

Edited March 28, 2010 by robthefool

[Tucco]

Not really a downgrade, Pit. It's as you menturned, the snow risk has moved to a different area as the low is further north than first predicted. As i said, higher parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland could see alot of snowfall and lower levels in these areas are in the risk of snowfall also.

Meto invent just updated. low reaches as far North as Blackpool then heads SE towards Derbyshire. No downgrade, looks to me a very intresting spell of weather.

Mark

[SP1986]

Of course I will be told I am wrong here, obviously, however to my eyes the GFS has overdone the wintriness on Wednesday a bit. A northwesterly flow odff the Irish sea is not going to bring about maximums of 0-1C (borderline snow) across much of Northern England, there are some pattern where that would be the case but not this time, at one point the GFS was suggesting 0C on Monday but this has radically changed, and I believe so will Wednesday which has also shown maximums of freezing, for numerous days.

I can't be sure what's causing the GFS to predict these occurrences because they do affect whether model predicts snow or rain so it is important that these are correct in order to have any idea/suggestion of what precipitation type will fall. For me away from hills, GFS is really struggling with the specifics.

[Strider]

Looking like a non-event for us in the SE yet again....Might as well bank on the high building after it which will bring warm spring sunshine and give the flowers a chance - at last!

anyone care to counter this? Would be interested to hear....especially as the 528 is south of us I cannot understand why any precip wouldn't be at least sleet....Thanks.

You have got to be kidding me. Were you asleep for the whole of winter? SE had it better than many other places.

Simple common sense and experiance dictated that the previous predictions of heavy snow around the home counties was unlikely, it was always in deep FI.