Model Output Discussion

[Derp Patrol]

First 20C of the year?

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100328/12/276/h500slp.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100328/12/276/h850t850eu.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100328/12/288/h850t850eu.png

[damianslaw]

Models keen on bringing the low pressure slightly further north than shown yesterday and stalling somewhat over northern england, eastern areas will not see the colder uppers until Wednesday it seems which will probably be enough to prevent any snow at lower levels from the front until then. As I said yesterday areas to the north and north west of the front will see greatest chance of low level snow - southern scotland and cumbria especially high ground and then later the north pennines will catch the heaviest snow I suspect.

Models showing low pressure developing over Iceland on Thursday and quickly moving southwards which will then probabl affect us on Friday crossing the country, we look locked into a cold unsettled spell with polar air for the north throughout - not a great forecast for those planning to spend some time outdoors or anyone off camping/walking in the northern half of the country - it will feel like mid winter on the northern hills and mountains.

Edited March 28, 2010 by damianslaw

[johnholmes]

Well, continuing my check on rainfall being predicted for my area, Monday - Wednesday, the 12z shows

GFS basic has 22mm, Extra, with more grid points shown gives 17mm in two slots this time between 09z Monday and Tuesday 21z.

GFS cumulative version shows between 13 and 15mm and NAE gives 17mm.

They all seem now, barely 24 hours away, to be suggesting below 20mm really.

Now the interesting bit will be to see when it rains and how much I get-snow for here is a remote risk right at the end but not to settle.

[Snowstorm1]

Im confused everyone in here staying rain for ne england until wednesday but bbc saying monday night onwards snow whats going on?

[Alex95]

not a great forecast for those planning to spend some time outdoors or anyone off camping/walking in the northern half of the country - it will feel like mid winter on the northern hills and mountains.

Tell me about it, one thing that hasn't been mentioned too much is that the hills of Northern England + Scotland could easily get 50cm - 100cm in the next week or so, I was planning on walking in the Lakes next weekend but I might have to rethink my plans. In April 2008 there was further snow events over high ground after the northerly on the 6th + 7th - I got caught in a mini-blizzard on the A69 on the 15th. What the models show to me is that April as a whole could easily turn out like 2008.

I don't think low levels will see much snow this week, though anywhere in the Northern half of the country could see some, as long as you get far enough from the coast. NE England, for example, will probably see rain and sleet at low levels due to the onshore wind, but over the hills there could be some exceptional snowfall.

[johnholmes]

Im confused everyone in here staying rain for ne england until wednesday but bbc saying monday night onwards snow whats going on?

would recommend that you start and see how much precip the Extra version of GFS is currently predicting for your area.

Factor in the height correction, then look at the various factors for it to snow, that list is in the NW Guides.

Its fun having a go and it works pretty well-give it a go.

[Snowstorm1]

would recommend that you start and see how much precip the Extra version of GFS is currently predicting for your area.

Factor in the height correction, then look at the various factors for it to snow, that list is in the NW Guides.

Its fun having a go and it works pretty well-give it a go.

I would but I dont subscribe to netweather

[Cheese Rice]

I would but I dont subscribe to netweather

Use weatheronline I think it shows what most of Net W Extra shows.

[shuggee]

Interesting chart for those of us in the Central Belt for tomorrow evening. The -5ºC 850hpa line straddles from Edinburgh to Glasgow all tomorrow night...

We then continue with ppn over the same area for 72 hours - with 850s of between -4 and -6ºC...

[Thundery wintry showers]

GFS progs temperatures to be at 1 or 2C at the same time across the central belt, so I imagine that the lower parts of the Scottish Lowlands will see mostly sleet from that system- but snow could reasonably be expected at just modest altitudes. Certainly one to watch, for just a slight toning up of the cold air would promote falling and lying snow even to sea level.

[Cheese Rice]

Interesting chart for those of us in the Central Belt for tomorrow evening. The -5ºC 850hpa line straddles from Edinburgh to Glasgow all tomorrow night...

We then continue with ppn over the same area for 72 hours - with 850s of between -4 and -6ºC...

Damnn that would of been over me if the GFS had stayed the same, hopefully you guys in N England/S Scotland will see decent snow to low levels, am hoping for an upgrade for this area .

Edited March 28, 2010 by 10123

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/03/28/basis12/ukuk/prty/10033012_2812.gif

[conor123]

The 18z seems to want to snow us in during Wednesday coupled with what looks like almost gale force winds, very odd chart to end the month on, surely temperatures can't be THAT low at the end of March?!?

[NorthantsSnow]

12z data suggests non stop rain/sleet/snow for parts of Scotland from about 0700 tomorrow right through to 0400 Friday.

Very very unsettled way to end March.

[keithlucky]

Pity these pressure charts werent in feb we would have seen blizzard conditions with the winds in a north northwest northeast direction.

[Liam J]

well if the gfs 18z is to be believed some serious conditions could occur in northern england and scotland with 20-30cm of snow and gale force winds with whiteout conditions and severe drifting. im sure the clocks went forward to bst?!!!! not to be ignored the potential is there for major disruption. on the high ground mainly but not exclusivly..... oh dear as much as i like the cold and snow that is beyond a joke looking at the charts atm for this time of year.

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

mental charts, actually was looking forward to a decent spring, could end up with a good fall here although the mountains look like there going to get an absolute hammering 50cm+ easy

Scott

edit; also bring back the Scottish thread :lol: conditions here are going to be very different to south of the border, has been a running trend this month

Edited March 28, 2010 by scott_anthony_glasgow

[MR EXTREMES]

classic spring weather bit of a downgrade but still its to be expected it is that time of year where the kitchen sink gets thrown in.

intresting stuff on its way this week with northern england north looking at some snowfall,

mountains and high hills of wales could aswell get something intresting its looking like typical spring weather.

exciting.

good luck to those that are likely to see some cant wait to see some pictures:drinks:

[snowmadchrisuk]

The models suggest a cold snap which of course at this time of year leads to snow on northern hills.

People talking of snow on Brighton beach are I fear being a tad optimistic (at present)

Personally I think the 00z keeps 850's way to high in the East, The 528 damline avoids the East Mids until early Thursday now. I feer the South are being very optimistic if they are expecting Heavy Snow. The NAE doesn't show any Snow in the next 48 hours for England, Scotland and Northern Ireland only.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I don't think anyone in the south has been expecting any snow at all, be it heavy or light - touch wood it stays that way as well.

I think there have been quite a few that have . To be fair all of last week showed Snow in the South. Then the Weekend has downgraded precipitation totals, 850's in South , The length of the Cold and the Minimum Temps. In other words Friday's charts for Tuesday (4 days) Were pretty much useless.

[Tucco]

12z fax has the front further yet North again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

Could be repeat of the heavy snow in Feb across the Highlands.

Could end up 200 miles further than forecast by the Meto just a day ago.

Mark

Edited March 29, 2010 by Tucco

[Derp Patrol]

Can't say that i'm surprised.. uppers here now around 0C for the whole week, and we should scrape double figures every day. Just goes to show how hard it is for most areas to receive snow this late in the year.

[Cheese Rice]

Can't say that i'm surprised.. uppers here now around 0C for the whole week, and we should scrape double figures every day. Just goes to show how hard it is for most areas to receive snow this late in the year.

Northerlies are most common at this time of year which would bring snow.

[Derp Patrol]

Northerlies are most common at this time of year which would bring snow.

To northern areas yes. It is still hard for most southern areas to get snow from a northerly in mid winter, yet alone in late March/ early April.

[Wynn D Woo]

To northern areas yes. It is still hard for most southern areas to get snow from a northerly in mid winter, yet alone in late March/ early April.

Actually the increased convective power of the strengthening sun makes it more likely in many cases. According to the met offices 71-00 averages I can expect 4 days of falling snow in March - I havent had one this month despite the cold winter and cold start to the month.