Model Output Discussion

[mushymanrob]

normality looks set to resume by midweek, not totally dry at first but under high pressure 'normal' will be the order of the day. some areas where the sun breaks out may become rather warm, other areas under and cloud not so lucky. the gentle northeasterly shown on the 00z for southern/southeastern areas may peg back temps under grey skies.

[TEITS]

normality looks set to resume by midweek, not totally dry at first but under high pressure 'normal' will be the order of the day. some areas where the sun breaks out may become rather warm, other areas under and cloud not so lucky. the gentle northeasterly shown on the 00z for southern/southeastern areas may peg back temps under grey skies.

Very nice model output this morning and most welcome for me personally. Strong indication of HP but with a E/NE,ly flow then E coastal counties might be on the cool side especially with cloud cover. However those in the W/SW might actually see reasonable spells of sunshine with temps around 13-15C. Certainly no heatwave but a massive improvement on what we have experienced lately.

[johnholmes]

At T+72 both GFS and UK have more of a temporary ridge over the country with EC showing the ridge several degrees west and a more cyclonic flow for much of the country.

By T+120 and EC again is much more cyclonic than UK with the whole country under the influence of the large surface low it shows south of Iceland. Fairly windy for many as well. UK confine it more to the far north with a slackish west to north west flow for most. GFS has a rather odd looking marked surface trough down the eastern side with the ridge still only into parts of Ireland.

In terms of model accuracy in the northern hemisphere at T+120 (5 days) then GFS and EC just shade it from UK Met as of 1 April.

Edited April 2, 2010 by johnholmes

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Very nice model output this morning and most welcome for me personally. Strong indication of HP but with a E/NE,ly flow then E coastal counties might be on the cool side especially with cloud cover. However those in the W/SW might actually see reasonable spells of sunshine with temps around 13-15C. Certainly no heatwave but a massive improvement on what we have experienced lately.

Yes, a case of enduring today and tomorrow and then we can say goodbye to this low pressure stuck like a limpet over the UK recently and things steadily improve from there for some of us, although there is still some rain to get rid of in the first part of next week - especially further north and west.

Very much like the ECM especially (cloud or sun). Good agreeement from the UKMO as far it goes. Some sunshine would be very welcome, but even if it is cloudy at least the wind finally shifts from these awful unstable wet and windy south/south westerlies and things outdoors can resume without getting soaked.

[Derp Patrol]

Well right now I'm looking outside at yet another grey and miserable day, so the GFS is a welcome relief.

Monday looks like it may be wet in some areas, but it should be quite mild with uppers around 5C.

On Thursday we have high pressure over the UK, so under sunshine, expect 13C-15C quite widely, perhaps a 17C or 18C locally.

The pattern looks like continuing untill at least Monday, and then we develop a southerly flow, so perhaps more milder weather. The theme looks like getting warmer and brighter though for the future.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Interesting to see that the GFS and ECM have switched around. Regarding the possibility of 20C if the "sunny" high scenario comes off, it's looking unlikely on the evidence of the GFS, as the associated airmass isn't warm enough, but still, temperatures would get into the mid to high teens for many and it would feel warm in the sun.

The ECM would bring a fair amount of cloud into eastern areas, particularly towards the end of the run when some moderately cold uppers come into play (but not cold enough to suggest sunshine and wintry showers), but it would be sunny in the north and west. In my experience we often get many members getting excited over a settled spell and saying it doesn't matter as long as it's dry, but if it then turns out cool, dull and drizzly many of the same members start complaining and crying out for warmth, so the impact of cloud and wind should not be underestimated.

I think it's "two onto one" at the moment as the UKMO looks like it supports the GFS at T+144.

This weekend looks like being the usual mixed bag really- as others have said, showery Saturday for most (but I think dull and wet would be a better description for Scotland), then a drier day on Sunday with some sunshine particularly the west. Then Monday looks like being a washout in the west, but it may be dry and fairly bright towards the SE, before the rain pushes slowly east on Tuesday and Wednesday, weakening as it does so.

[damianslaw]

Models all in agreement of ridging high pressure taking over middle of next week, however, GFS keener on heights building over the country, whereas ECM wants to ridge heights over to scandanavia pulling in what looks like an increasingly colder continental flow by the end of the week which would result in a cloudy dull affair away from the west.

Those wanting some sustained sunny mild weather should hope that the GFS evolution pays off, rather than ECM which I think would be dissapointing for many - a chilly easterly in April can be preety miserable.

Not sure which model to side with, ECM tends to perform better under high pressure situations.. All will become clearer by Monday I imagine. All said it is a very traditional outlook for April, this is the time of year when the atlantic is usually at its quietest and when we see northerlies and easterlies reach their yearly maxim.

[The PIT]

Well after a cool wet Easter it should start to warm up a little bit with a strong s/sw flow. I think GFS may be under doing the temps for the SE as the area is long way away from the main low so more likely to be dry. Temps will depend on the cloud cover. If it's sunny I would expect too see temps higher than 10C.

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks as though after some more days of low pressure controlled weather, both ecm and gfs show some support of high pressure building across the Uk and then up towards the Scandi region. Of course if that happens, a rather chilly northeast wind will nag Eastern areas and probably cloudy too. Western areas tend to fair best in these synoptics, but overall a drier more settled outlook in the medium term! :excl:

[Frosty.]

At last the models are picking up on a major pattern change from around the middle of next week with an anticyclone expanding across the uk and bringing fine weather for a change but no april heatwave sadly but still a massive improvement on the current dross, for western and northern britain it will turn very windy early next week with spells of rain as a deep depression sweeps in from the atlantic but then hp should build according to the gfs 12z with variable amounts of sunshine and some overnight ground frost and mist.

[conor123]

Well its fine if you live in the South East because you get mild sunny weather Monday & Tuesday and its fine in the north and west because when the high pressure builds it will escape the low cloud/north sea gloom but for here in The Midlands we suffer cloudy skies Monday/Tuesday with a bit of hazy sunshine and then the weather front dies over us Wednesday then low cloud sticks around the rest of next week and next weekend.

That's how i see it, looks very cloudy and cool, better than it has been but it could hardly of got any worse.

Edited April 2, 2010 by conor123

[Ben_Cambs]

Certainly looking like it will warm up and turn drier by Thursday or so next week. HP will build from the south giving nice and settled conditions, but how warm this is depends upon the positioning of the HP. I think the main problem is that over time the HP will slowly retrogress northwards, allowing a continental feed of air to come into especially Eastern areas, which will bring dull cloudly weather, but western areas should fair best with the better chance of seeing days with decent sunny skies. Unfortuently no April 2007 but it will be warm in the sun. From the current synoptics I think temperatures will range from 13-17C, 20C will be very hard to reach, because of the projected positioning of the HP.

In the short term, it will remain unsettled with April showers this weekend. A deep LP may skim the far north west of Scotland and the Northern isles, but afterwards, pressure will build.

[damianslaw]

Certainly looking like it will warm up and turn drier by Thursday or so next week. HP will build from the south giving nice and settled conditions, but how warm this is depends upon the positioning of the HP. I think the main problem is that over time the HP will slowly retrogress northwards, allowing a continental feed of air to come into especially Eastern areas, which will bring dull cloudly weather, but western areas should fair best with the better chance of seeing days with decent sunny skies. Unfortuently no April 2007 but it will be warm in the sun. From the current synoptics I think temperatures will range from 13-17C, 20C will be very hard to reach, because of the projected positioning of the HP.

In the short term, it will remain unsettled with April showers this weekend. A deep LP may skim the far north west of Scotland and the Northern isles, but afterwards, pressure will build.

Probably about right with the temps, can't see any high teen figures, mid teens at best. If the easterly develops it will be very cool on eastern coasts, probably pegging temps back to single digit figures, something which often happens in spring when an easterly develops due to the cold North Sea. Sheltered western parts can do very well if there is abundant sunshine, however, I think it is too early in the season for these parts to really benefit from such a positioned high - a month on and high teen temps in the west would be likely. Still hopefully the high will stick around for a bit and give some generally fine settled weather, not bothered about any real warmth yet, that can come in May.

[Eugene]

Warm in what sun more like with this stalling front which looks like pushing back westwards in an easterly flow.

http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack4.gif

I think massive improvement is going over the top, certainly no massive improvement on the euros tonight unless you like chilly brisk easterly winds in April that is.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

Edited April 2, 2010 by Eugene

[Eugene]

Hard for me to get excited over dull mild easterlies in April

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

[Eugene]

Leads to something more interesting down the line though, might be more snowfall if it comes off, no proper warmth on this run at all, dont forget early to mid 20's C can easily be reached in April.

[mushymanrob]

Hard for me to get excited over dull mild easterlies in April

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

..... but its better then dull cold easterlies

which is possibly what will happen. a 'typical' mid spring easterly of some discription now looks most probable later next week. this type of synoptic was quite prevailent in the 70's, especially april 1974 and gave us the classic north sea blanket of cloud. cool under the cloud (mainly in the east) but when the sun burns back the cloud some very nice weather results ... western areas favoured. but at least its dry, and theres no frost on offer either (for me anyway!) which dispite this current 'cold' snap is a blessing.... could this spring be the first frostless spring for many years? (here)(and since the winter weather went in early march).

[reef]

..... but its better then dull cold easterlies

which is possibly what will happen. a 'typical' mid spring easterly of some discription now looks most probable later next week. this type of synoptic was quite prevailent in the 70's, especially april 1974 and gave us the classic north sea blanket of cloud. cool under the cloud (mainly in the east) but when the sun burns back the cloud some very nice weather results ... western areas favoured. but at least its dry, and theres no frost on offer either (for me anyway!) which dispite this current 'cold' snap is a blessing.... could this spring be the first frostless spring for many years? (here)(and since the winter weather went in early march).

To be honest, it matters little whether the upper air temperatures are -4C or +4C in the easterly scenario which the models are showing. Regardless it will be cool, dull and cloudy with light drizzle in places. You cant really look at the upper air temperatures in this setup. In sheltered western areas the upper temperatures might make a difference as they often get sunshine, but for the majority it'll most likely be cool with temperatures in single figures with little fluctuation between day and night.

You're right that its pretty typical mid-spring weather, but have to disagree with you about anywhere getting a frostless spring. Its convenient to not count the first frosty week, but it was in the meteorological spring so it still counts!

Interestingly the GFS keeps going for northerly outbreaks in FI, it would be nice to see a potent cold snap followed by a switcharound to a warmer spell. So far spring has yet again been very benign, though perhaps not as much as last year's dullfest (from a weather enthusiast's point of view I must point out).

[mountain shadow]

Certainly looks like Spring is on its way for western areas and other areas away from the East coast. Marvellous.

[Bottesford]

ugh yuk North Sea low cloud looks to be on offer for the week ahead. Definitely my least favourite kind of weather as it's both immensely boring and unpleasant to boot. If the flow slackens a bit you might be lucky enough to get some burn back of the cloud - then some pleasant sunshine will be on offer (but always coupled with a nagging chilly wind). But don't expect much sunshine (or in fact any 'weather') the midlands eastwards under these synoptics.

[MR EXTREMES]

ugh yuk North Sea low cloud looks to be on offer for the week ahead. Definitely my least favourite kind of weather as it's both immensely boring and unpleasant to boot. If the flow slackens a bit you might be lucky enough to get some burn back of the cloud - then some pleasant sunshine will be on offer (but always coupled with a nagging chilly wind). But don't expect much sunshine (or in fact any 'weather') the midlands eastwards under these synoptics.

indeed spot on.

nothing really exciting yet but im getting the feeling there is a slow build up to something warmer.

i reckon by wed or thurs where know more there does seem to be alot of pressure building on all charts from all models,

but as people are saying its where thease heights develop and at the moment theres plenty blocking a true path to spring warmth,but its there thats a start.

but for now better weather than we been getting from tuesday onwards and much better futher west you are,

temps stick around average for awhile yet.

Edited April 3, 2010 by badboy657

[The PIT]

Thankfully the cloud cover easterly rubbish is just outside the reliable time frame so hopefully a slight change in wind position should do the trick. Otherwise yuk as you say.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Pleasing to see the end near in sight to this dreadful and unpleasant cyclonic south/south westerly pattern and for a complete switch in wind direction bringing in much drier weather once the low to the north west moves away from midweek. Irrespective that no-one else welcomes the change - I certainly do, cloud or sun. Infinitely better than the current fare being served up to date and over the last days.

There is still some variation over the position and orientation of the high (the ECM looks fine to me at least) but to all intents and purposes the main thing is that the atlantic/uk low conveyor belt troughs are put out of action

Edited April 3, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[MP-R]

Irrespective that no-one else welcomes the change - I certainly do, cloud or sun. Infinitely better than the current fare being served up to date and over the last days.

I think many are of the opinion, me included, that sunshine and thundery downpours is more exciting than low cloud off the North Sea or a lengthy dry spell that doesn't offer anything particularly interesting, because even at this time of year, it will still be rather cool, similar to April 2002.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

Perhaps if there was a more southeasterly element to the high people may switch on a bit but the draw of wind is quite far to the east and veers to a northerly source later on in the run. It's still well into FI. If the high could position itself more to the east we could something more like this but we do need the input of the Atlantic to the west which seems to want to go into a bit of a slumber:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120091030.gif

[La Bise]

_{Always a pleasure to read your update NSSC, I know that when you post something upbeat, it means there is no SW muck on the way. For the western seaboard the possible outcome is quite good, possibility of some frosty nights if skies are clear enough I guess....?}