Model Output Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

I can see plenty evidence of spring on the current set of charts- this kind of weather is not unusual at this time of year, and those who expect spring to be a story of persistent warm settled weather will be disappointed in a large majority of years. Dull cold wet weather looks like featuring heavily tomorrow and on Friday, otherwise we are looking at more of a bright showery type, with some snow and hail likely for many on Thursday, but snow reserved for high ground over the Easter weekend.

Still some hints of high pressure building from the S/SW in about 6-8 days' time which could bring a spell of warm dry sunny weather to many, though it may well be brief- the GFS FI has thrown up quite a few runs with switch-arounds from high pressure to snowy northerlies. Again we shouldn't be surprised to be staring at a scenario like this in late March/early April.

[Ben_Cambs]

Good post from Phil above, really is looking unsettled for the time being and the signals are it will continue this way for at least another 10 days or so, maybe a little more settled in the south for a time, before Atlantic lows come back in. Although pointless to go into detail, GFS in FI shows another Northerly outbreak, these are still easily possible for the middle of April! Only one GEFS ensemble goes for anything significantly warm, UKMO cool and unsettled.

[phil nw.]

Good post from Phil above, really is looking unsettled for the time being and the signals are it will continue this way for at least another 10 days or so, maybe a little more settled in the south for a time, before Atlantic lows come back in. Although pointless to go into detail, GFS in FI shows another Northerly outbreak, these are still easily possible for the middle of April! Only one GEFS ensemble goes for anything significantly warm, UKMO cool and unsettled.

Thanks for your kind comment Snowman0697.

ECM follows the other 2 models around T144hrs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

modelling the potential warm up from the South West around Easter Monday,although as with the other runs it doesn`t look settled for long with the next system moving in from the West later.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some disagreement over Bank Holiday Monday I see- the GFS looks like it would result in a dry sunny day for many following a showery weekend, but rain spreading into the west and south late in the day. But UKMO/ECM clearly still have the large Atlantic low powering in for Monday, which would indeed bring warmer weather, but due to the proximity of the low, probably a good deal of cloud, wind and rain for a large majority of the country.

Interesting attempt at a southerly incursion on the ECM on Tuesday, which is worth keeping an eye on, and certainly vastly different to what GFS has been showing, but I have a feeling that the ECM will ditch this in future runs.

[phil nw.]

Some disagreement over Bank Holiday Monday I see- the GFS looks like it would result in a dry sunny day for many following a showery weekend, but rain spreading into the west and south late in the day. But UKMO/ECM clearly still have the large Atlantic low powering in for Monday, which would indeed bring warmer weather, but due to the proximity of the low, probably a good deal of cloud, wind and rain for a large majority of the country.

Interesting attempt at a southerly incursion on the ECM on Tuesday, which is worth keeping an eye on, and certainly vastly different to what GFS has been showing, but I have a feeling that the ECM will ditch this in future runs.

Yes too early to pin down Easter weekend/Monday detail TWS.

The only probable,at this stage,based on 12z runs,is the higher temps.

I think most folks would hope for a GFS solution after all the cold and wet of this week,even if it`s only brief.

[yamkin]

GFS 12Z 372h & 384h in FI is going for very cold uppers :cold:

[damianslaw]

Easter period i.e. Good Friday- Easter Monday isn't at this stage looking particularly promising if you are after dry sunny mild weather, it is generally going to be unsettled, not a complete washout but in the main very dissapointing.

Good Friday will be half decent in the north, with dry and possibly bright conditions but never that mild, the south will see cloudy overcast conditions and later rain from the SW. Saturday is looking wet or showery for many and cool with chilly winds. Sunday brighter in the east and south cool and showery in the north and west. Monday possibly settled for many and becoming a bit milder, but alas another low looks set to attack from the west.

April is the most fickle month in the weather calandar, it is notorious for its switcharounds from cold arctic northerlies to mild/warm southerlies, from cyclonic wet conditions to drought conditions, it is our most variable month, and always the most difficult month in which to predict what the weather is likely to do, for this reason I tend not to look at the models too much during this time of year, sudden abrupt changes usually occur and make mockery of longer term forecasting.

[Milhouse]

At least theres a gradual improvement shown in the models with rising temperatures and the hint of something drier for the 2nd half of next week.

[NorthantsSnow]

Still can't rule out a white Easter in a few spots from this second LOW- considerable elevation will be needed though.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100330/18/78/h850t850eu.png

Edited March 30, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[mushymanrob]

I would say changeable - mid month might deliver more warmth and spring sunshine, albeit LATE spring sunshine - but welcome by any means....

april isnt late spring though.... its mid spring surely (1 march - may 31st)

I can see plenty evidence of spring on the current set of charts- this kind of weather is not unusual at this time of year, and those who expect spring to be a story of persistent warm settled weather will be disappointed in a large majority of years. Dull cold wet weather looks like featuring heavily tomorrow and on Friday, otherwise we are looking at more of a bright showery type, with some snow and hail likely for many on Thursday, but snow reserved for high ground over the Easter weekend.

exactly! its pretty nomal albeit on the 'below' side of average, still in any sun itll be nice. the 00z gfs is suggesting settle down later next week whith high pressure taking control.

[johnholmes]

summation of the 00z model runs today

At T+72 all 3 models are in fairly close agreement so the forecast for that day is or should be reasonably secure.

By T+120 then there is quite a difference in the upper air pattern and hence the surface features.

All 3 have at least a suggestion of a transient (probably) upper ridge building but with GFS making more of this than the other two. They both have a much more marked surface low south of Iceland than GFS has.

Beyond that and EC and GFS end up at T+240 with chalk and cheese as far as the upper air pattern is concerned. GFS has little sign of any upper trough penetration with a broad surface high from well out in the Atlantic across the UK and way out into southern Russia. EC has a marked upper trough to our east and a ridge to our west.

[cold snap]

Is the Weekend still all to play for?

If this low was to move East a small bit would we be back in a Northerly flow?

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn721.html

Edited March 31, 2010 by cold snap

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

This hideous cyclonic south westerly pattern is set to spoil the Easter weekend weather.

The lovely cold bright easterly high pressure that started the month is very much a contrast to this (albeit colder) ogre repeat version of November 2009 that is seeing the month out and judging by the models unfortunately looks determined to continue, at the very least, into the early part of April as well.

[mushymanrob]

Is the Weekend still all to play for?

what do you mean? its weather and we will get whatever comes our way, as we cannot influence this i dont see how we can 'play' for anything.

well the 06z resembles the ecm more then the 00z did, but the outlook is no better if its settled weather you are looking for. in all the run is a pretty much normal run, even if theres a suggestion of a rather potent northerly in fi..

[SP1986]

Maybe I'm the only one here, but I can't see any suggestion of warmer Springlike returning... the point at whic the southwestern invade times (unfortunately in my opinion) which cold which is already lagging behind, meaning any potential warmth instead results in a cool day. In terms of general patterns, until the high over Greenland there will be very little in the way of the warmth/mildness we saw over the last few weeks. I can't see this northern blocking feature clearing anytime soon either.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Maybe I'm the only one here, but I can't see any suggestion of warmer Springlike returning... the point at whic the southwestern invade times (unfortunately in my opinion) which cold which is already lagging behind, meaning any potential warmth instead results in a cool day. In terms of general patterns, until the high over Greenland there will be very little in the way of the warmth/mildness we saw over the last few weeks. I can't see this northern blocking feature clearing anytime soon either.

As a well known general fan of high pressure to the north, I am also, just like you, not however a fan at all of this pattern because, yet again, the block is just too far west and the end result is simply a somewhat cooler,colder version of usual yuksville south westerly zonality. Some high pressure and pleasant sunshine would be very welcome but it doesn't look like coming soon

Edited March 31, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[SP1986]

Agreed if things were just a little further east we could at least tap into a sunshine and wintry showers scenario, as opposed to today which is generally cloudy with sleet and rain showers. The only plus in terms of the setup is that it is not benign, with this low pressure playing a major role, it is funneling in some very strong winds, but that is the only positive I can take from it

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Agreed if things were just a little further east we could at least tap into a sunshine and wintry showers scenario, as opposed to today which is generally cloudy with sleet and rain showers. The only plus in terms of the setup is that it is not benign, with this low pressure playing a major role, it is funneling in some very strong winds, but that is the only positive I can take from it

I'm afraid we will have to agree to disagree about the 'positives' of the low pressure. The strong winds are a very distinct negative as far as I am concerned, as well as the squally showers, which have eased up now. Unfortunately it looks as though a repeat performance is going to happen Friday night into Saturday as the models have today intensified the secondary low and which appears to want to follow an identical track to this one

[The PIT]

Yup cool and unsettled weather in the reliable time frame. Not all that bothered as I can't drive very far anyway at the moment. So a cool wet start to April rather than a very cold one but a bad one for holiday makers and business's

[cold snap]

Yup cool and unsettled weather in the reliable time frame. Not all that bothered as I can't drive very far anyway at the moment. So a cool wet start to April rather than a very cold one but a bad one for holiday makers and business's

Saturday could still end up very cold Low tracking East all the time

Love your posts

[Cheese Rice]

Interesting NAE for Friday, once the band of rain (with snow on leading edge for northern areas) sweeps through a large area of 0.c dew points come flooding in which would suggest the rain turning to snow on the back edge. Either way cold is never too far away.

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM 12z this evening is one for people who like warm and dry weather, Heights build to our south on this run allowing a Southerly to come in, I suspect if this run came off the first 20C of the year would occur.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

In the meantime though, cool and unsettled. A system moves through on Friday evening into Saturday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

Sunday looking a dry and sunny day for quite a few:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

But Low pressure moves back in on Easter Monday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

[conor123]

Indeed ill take the ECM and run with it, it's out on its own though so im thinking the high will end up too far north west with low pressure close to the southeast e.g 12z GFS.

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

How to kill the Scottish ski season in 3 days after 5 months building up feet of snow!

[shuggee]

That chart wouldn't do that LS. The enemy of mountain snow in the Scotland is mild wet weather - settled sunny and warm at sea level this time of year, but it would be chilly at height, and only really affect south facing slopes etc.