Model Output Discussion

[reef]

Please make sure you use the correct thread when making your posts. Ive just had to remove several posts to the Cold Spell Discussion thread. This thread is for discussing the models.

Thanks

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 12z is a very un-interesting run, heights to build to our south and west on this run, which would bring some settled weather, but no direct continental southerly source, probably more of a westerly with at times frontal systems passing through after this weekend. Only one GEFS ensemble members goes for Azores Ridging. There is little sign of anything particulary warm in the future, this run may bring though some classic April sunshine and showers days. Only towards the end of the run there is more heights building to our South and East, but thats too far in FI to even think about it. ECM looks like something similar this evening too, fairly average with sunshine and showers around, though more unsettled, lower heights to the west allowing in more frontal systems.

The NAO looking likely to stay slightly -ve for the time being. The PV is not too far from subsiding too. This chart is very interesting, because it shows how, with a few changes, February could of been a severe month in terms of cold and snow, if we had been on the right side of the very negative NAO, AO and the Scandi Trough, after this phase of stratospheric warming,which we didnt need for the original cold spell in Mid-December.

Also regarding the Northerlies for southern areas of the UK, its more likely to see in a possible northerly outbreak in March/April snow for Southern areas than Mid Winter, due to the strengthing sun, but you do have to rely on troughs and frontal systems for snow in the south, bar coastal regions of say Norfolk for example.

Edited March 29, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Rob]

Also regarding the Northerlies for southern areas of the UK, its more likely to see in a possible northerly outbreak in March/April snow for Southern areas than Mid Winter, due to the strengthing sun, but you do have to rely on troughs and frontal systems for snow in the south, bar coastal regions of say Norfolk for example.

Yeah the setup is certainately there but i'm not expecting too much, really can't temperatures falling low enough to brining anything, and if they do i really can't see ground temperatures getting to and staying below freezing for snow to settle

[Frosty.]

Very depressing depression domination on the charts for the next week at least and probably longer, rather cold for a time but then temps recovering to average values later but not much sign of sustained settled or warm weather.

[azores92]

sorry for the ignorance and delete as necessary, but have the charts delayed an hour now we have entered british summertime? many thanks

[January Snowstorm]

What's about to hit Ireland, could be called a 'snowstorm'

Am surprised it's so quiet here!

[reef]

sorry for the ignorance and delete as necessary, but have the charts delayed an hour now we have entered british summertime? many thanks

Yes, all the charts come out an hour later to us now we are on BST.

Quite a bit of a stalemate on the GFS 18z FI. After a northerly reload we have colder air constantly trying to push south around the Greenland high while warmer air is trying to push north with the UK in the middle. It would actually end up being pretty nice in the far south, wintry in the far north and generally average but very wet in central and northern areas.

In the meantime, average to cool, wet and rather windy looks to be the order of the day.

[conor123]

The chart at 384hrs is pretty much identical to the 6hrs chart, how mortifying, very unsettled spell of weather, not even one day 'off' from this relentless rain/sleet/snow.

[Derp Patrol]

The 18Z shows a southerly again at the end of the run, with 850s of +10 just clipping eastern England, which would surely bring temperatures into the low 20s. Still looks quite unsettled for the future though..

[Eugene]

No southerly on GFS 00Z thats for sure, to be honest if that run comes off i`ll be delirious, apart from a few warm sectors its a very pleasant run with cool PM air dominating at least i'll be able to sleep at night, this chart below its a monstrosity, thats what we currently have and its delivering stagnant nothing very mild weather with drizzle.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn002.png

[snowfish]

No southerly on GFS 00Z thats for sure, to be honest if that run comes off i`ll be delirious, apart from a few warm sectors its a very pleasant run with cool PM air dominating at least i'll be able to sleep at night, this chart below its a monstrosity, thats what we currently have and its delivering stagnant nothing very mild weather with drizzle.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn002.png

Couldn't agree more.....this weather isn't my idea of 'fun'. annoyingly, all this low has brought is the usual wind and rain with mild mushy temps...yuck, in short lol!

[MR EXTREMES]

Couldn't agree more.....this weather isn't my idea of 'fun'. annoyingly, all this low has brought is the usual wind and rain with mild mushy temps...yuck, in short lol!

yep and it looks like sticking around.

anyone for a soggy summer lol.:lol:

[mushymanrob]

yep and it looks like sticking around.

anyone for a soggy summer lol.

unfortunately that is a distinct possibility with these synoptics if they stick around another few months.

[The PIT]

Bar a brief cold snap 12 hr jobby for the south a mild wet outlook with the 00 oz. The ecm also goes for a mild wet outlook. Plenty rain and wind around for the next few days.

[cooling climate]

Bar a brief cold snap 12 hr jobby for the south a mild wet outlook with the 00 oz. The ecm also goes for a mild wet outlook. Plenty rain and wind around for the next few days.

Um not according to the 0z GFS it doesn't unless of course you regard 8c and 9c maximum at the start

of April as mild.

[Frosty.]

Very unsettled sums the models up so far today, not a complete washout but anticyclonic warmth will be at a premium if it exists at all, low pressure either over or close to the uk in the coming days but temps will recover after a cooler blip, mainly in the north.

[conor123]

It seems an increasing possibility next week now that high pressure will try to establish itself across the UK but with a low somewhere between the Bay Of Biscay and Kent keeping things unsettled in the South for a time, looking very wet just about everywhere before then.

Not sign of any mild weather or warmth though anytime soon.

[Frank Trough]

Um not according to the 0z GFS it doesn't unless of course you regard 8c and 9c maximum at the start

of April as mild.

I call that about average. Nothing remarkable either way - it's going to "feel" cold, wet and dreary. Dreadful stuff and even worse if you're up in Scotland. 06Z offers a little bit of hope in middle part of of the run and even the ECM 00Z would come good eventually (way out in FI).

This is why i really don't like spring and never have. It promises so much and people wax lyrically about swallows arriving and buds bursting...we even had a bit of that last week and then we get this...

[Derp Patrol]

I call that about average. Nothing remarkable either way - it's going to "feel" cold, wet and dreary. Dreadful stuff and even worse if you're up in Scotland. 06Z offers a little bit of hope in middle part of of the run and even the ECM 00Z would come good eventually (way out in FI).

This is why i really don't like spring and never have. It promises so much and people wax lyrically about swallows arriving and buds bursting...we even had a bit of that last week and then we get this...

But temps of 8-9C would be about 5-6C below average for some areas down south, that's nowhere near average. Whilst the current weather is awful (eg wind,rain,dark cloud, temps hovering around 10C) at least I have a feeling that if we get this out of the way before May, nature may spare us of awful weather in summer. The past few springs have been pretty good, but all have led to below par to awful summers.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I certainly see some anticyclonic and fairly warm weather on the GFS 06Z, albeit out in the near reaches of FI, as the showery north-westerly for T+144 runs out of steam. It only lasts for a few days, but let's be honest here, prolonged anticyclonic spells have always been rare in this country and even a run through the chart archives for dry sunny months rarely show anticyclones persisting uninterrupted for long periods.

The current weather is dull and cold and wet for most, but it should brighten up for Thursday which is also the day when snowfalls are likely to be most widespread, in the form of showers. The weekend is looking pretty unsettled but probably mostly bright and showery rather than dull and wet, although disturbances in the flow are known to crop up near the time and turn a day of sunshine and showers into a washout.

[Rollo]

It certainly looks rather cold and changeable overall for some little time to come,as TWS says there is a short anticyclonic spell showing at the moment around the 6th of April but in the weathers current mood I certainly would not base a lot of hope around it.

[snowfish]

It certainly looks rather cold and changeable overall for some little time to come,as TWS says there is a short anticyclonic spell showing at the moment around the 6th of April but in the weathers current mood I certainly would not base a lot of hope around it.

I would say changeable - mid month might deliver more warmth and spring sunshine, albeit LATE spring sunshine - but welcome by any means....

[conor123]

12z dashes any hope of it settling down, chilly from start to finish with plenty of wet weather...

[weather_it_will]

Cool and damp for some time to come yet looking at the ensemble charts.

Certainly no sign of spring or summer yet.

[phil nw.]

12z dashes any hope of it settling down, chilly from start to finish with plenty of wet weather...

Yes it looks thoroughly miserable for the rest of this week with temps. in low single figures for everyone tomorrow and not much higher after.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2417.png

Little respite from the wet weather either,except for some on Thursday.

Overall we keep the low pressure with us for the next few days with the colder air mixed into the circulation.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn962.png

UKMO showing a similar picture up to the Weekend.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

Tentative signs of a slight warm up from the South West later though,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1442.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

Temps. into double figures in the South but not looking very settled with another Atlantic system closing in later.

Edited March 30, 2010 by phil n.warks.