Model Output Discussion

[LomondSnowstorm]

That chart wouldn't do that LS. The enemy of mountain snow in the Scotland is mild wet weather - settled sunny and warm at sea level this time of year, but it would be chilly at height, and only really affect south facing slopes etc.

That's true, this would probably mean a fairly slow thaw on the resorts - rain makes the snow icy also, which would significantly damage the quality of snow also. But that chart would make it fairly pleasant for all - obviously FI, but a high like that would make a nice change to the 48 hour sleet/snow/flood/gale fest we've endured

[Derp Patrol]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

How to kill the Scottish ski season in 3 days after 5 months building up feet of snow!

Beautiful chart.. that's just what we need down here.. we would finally get some warm, sunny weather and likely the first 20C of the year.

[damianslaw]

As a well known general fan of high pressure to the north, I am also, just like you, not however a fan at all of this pattern because, yet again, the block is just too far west and the end result is simply a somewhat cooler,colder version of usual yuksville south westerly zonality. Some high pressure and pleasant sunshine would be very welcome but it doesn't look like coming soon

Yes the high pressure over Greenland has orientated itself into a very poor position for us if you are wanting a cold direct northerly feed with sunshine and showers, instead all it is doing is deflecting low pressure directly towards us, and preventing any ridging developing hence we have the conveyor low pressure belt pattern albeit of the cold variety. If it was further east, we would be looking at a cold northerly but much more settled spell - and at this time of year northerlues have a habit of suddenly becoming southerlies as we see ridges build from the west and often ridge south and east, alas as long as the high stays in its current position we are not going to get any settled weather, one consolation neither will we see sustained south westerlies with their associated low cloudy drizzly murk.

Looking at the models, there is some divergence between GFS and ECM, think GFS has got it right, can't see any strong ridging of the azores high, it looks a predominantly unsettled spell not something I tend to associate with April which can be notorious for sustained dry weather especially in the north west despite the showery accolade it gets, hopefully, the unsettled weather will die down later in the month in time for my favorite month of the year May.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Well overnight it appears that all the models have come into broad agreement that things might settle down in a week or so. However given that is FI it's by no means certain, but the fact there seems to be an amount of cross-model agreement does add some weight to the possibility.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes the high pressure over Greenland has orientated itself into a very poor position for us if you are wanting a cold direct northerly feed with sunshine and showers, instead all it is doing is deflecting low pressure directly towards us, and preventing any ridging developing hence we have the conveyor low pressure belt pattern albeit of the cold variety. If it was further east, we would be looking at a cold northerly but much more settled spell - and at this time of year northerlues have a habit of suddenly becoming southerlies as we see ridges build from the west and often ridge south and east, alas as long as the high stays in its current position we are not going to get any settled weather, one consolation neither will we see sustained south westerlies with their associated low cloudy drizzly murk.

Looking at the models, there is some divergence between GFS and ECM, think GFS has got it right, can't see any strong ridging of the azores high, it looks a predominantly unsettled spell not something I tend to associate with April which can be notorious for sustained dry weather especially in the north west despite the showery accolade it gets, hopefully, the unsettled weather will die down later in the month in time for my favorite month of the year May.

No clear cold northerly on offer, but a glimpse of a possible end to this poor cyclonic spell as we go through next week. All the main models get to a high pressure situation by next weekend but have different routes to it. The ECM is the best with high pressure building up over the country and setting up just to the north east with a nice gentle easterly by the following weekend. The GFS is the least favourable through the course of next week with a repeat UK low before it eventually gets to a similarish pattern to the ECM. The GEM is something in between but is not as good in its final solution as it keeps the high pressure to the south with westerlies.

At least UKMO agrees very well with ECM out to t144

Whatever happens, it doesn't stop Easter weather being fairly forgettable but maybe some quieter and more cheerful conditions to follow?

Edited April 1, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[conor123]

The ECM is utterly fantastic but the GFS refuses to come on board so its hard to know which one is going to be right in the end.

[Optimus Prime]

Looks like we could be heading for an April similar to 2003/2007/2009. Nice and warm but hardly April like.

[Nick F]

06z GFS coming round more to the idea of ECM's last couple of runs of building in the Azores ridge towards the UK in the medium range, though would like to see the ridge further east for all to have dry, sunny and warmer conditions like ECM, GFS keeps troughing close to the east so would be dull, cool and perhaps damp down the eastern side.

GFS's reluctance to rid of the trough near the UK over recent runs should be taken note of, as it was first to pick up on the recent cold northerly when ECM was reluctant before falling in line, though at least signs that GFS might be moving away from cool and unsettled into the medium range.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The latest METO update gives some support to the suggestion of rather more settled conditions for the east and south although it doesn't go as far as supporting the very nice ECM FI which would give very nice weather nationwide. Looks more like the latest GEM model suggestion which leaves the wind in the wrong direction - but at least it might dry up a bit for some of us and put an end to the rubbish of the last day or so and again for the Easter weekend. Most especially tomorrow and Saturday.

[MR EXTREMES]

The latest METO update gives some support to the suggestion of rather more settled conditions for the east and south although it doesn't go as far as supporting the very nice ECM FI which would give very nice weather nationwide. Looks more like the latest GEM model suggestion which leaves the wind in the wrong direction - but at least it might dry up a bit for some of us and put an end to the rubbish of the last day or so and again for the Easter weekend. Most especially tomorrow and Saturday.

i wish it would hurry up i wanna get my bikini on lol.

well all i can say been very intresting for the last 4 months and hoping spring can produce some nice gardening weather.

[Derp Patrol]

i wish it would hurry up i wanna get my bikini on lol.

well all i can say been very intresting for the last 4 months and hoping spring can produce some nice gardening weather.

Yes, we are well overdue some warmer, drier weather. This week has been awful weatherwise, cloudy, windy, rainy and no higher than 10C. If we do get a nice azores ridge as shown, 20C would be a good bet.

[Eugene]

Looks more like the latest GEM model suggestion which leaves the wind in the wrong direction - but at least it might dry up a bit for some of us and put an end to the rubbish of the last day or so

Talk for yourself i was out walking early this morning and it felt very pleasant indeed with temps around 0C, shame about all the rain in the daytime though but its alot better than suffering sleepless nights like on monday night at least the air is nice and cool, yes looks like drying up next week BUT we could be in an easterly regime which doesnt guarantee warmth this time of year, no unpleasant warmth on GFS 12Z at night thank god :lol:

[conor123]

Another poor run, looks like settling down next week but most likely and very unfortunately staying rather cool and grey...

[Derp Patrol]

Talk for yourself i was out walking early this morning and it felt very pleasant indeed with temps around 0C, shame about all the rain in the daytime though but its alot better than suffering sleepless nights like on monday night at least the air is nice and cool, yes looks like drying up next week BUT we could be in an easterly regime which doesnt guarantee warmth this time of year, no unpleasant warmth on GFS 12Z at night thank god

How on earth do you cope in the summer then? If you lived here in summer you would probably melt seeing as night temperatures rarely drop below 12C..

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM would end up warm and sunny for most, GFS probably grey and cloudy and judging by the latest Met outlook UKMO will be somewhere inbetween. Im taking the ECM with a pinch of salt seeing that it has little support from the other models and it is in FI.

[Richie V]

True Frosty, but there are strong signals from both ecm AND GFS for the same time frame-March nearly always goes out with a cold blast of some sort of other lol!

:lol:

I blame careless installation of loft unsulation :lol:

[Eugene]

It seems everytime HP is shown on the models people over exaggerate the temps it would give or have tunnel vision and think it`ll mean only one weather type ie sunny and warm, well it doesnt work like that unfortunately there is nothing that warm on GFS 12Z at all and looking at the ensembles you`ll see many different solutions for after mid week, quite a few develop easterlies or have a developing area of LP move over us or have HP to our west letting fronts slide down from the northwest, why people dont consider these options is just people being too fixated on their weather preference.

Edited April 1, 2010 by Eugene

[frostyjoe]

Talk for yourself i was out walking early this morning and it felt very pleasant indeed with temps around 0C, shame about all the rain in the daytime though but its alot better than suffering sleepless nights like on monday night at least the air is nice and cool, yes looks like drying up next week BUT we could be in an easterly regime which doesnt guarantee warmth this time of year, no unpleasant warmth on GFS 12Z at night thank god :lol:

yes at 5c in the sun today felt quite warm actually... im surprised the snow is surviving up there seen a six foot drift today on the side of the road was blown up last night! I actually wouldnt mind this weather its nice..

Edited April 1, 2010 by frostyjoe

[Bluebreezer54]

I thought this was supposed to be a model output discussion ?? Im trying to look and learn here and Ive lost count of the number of posters Ive had to put on my ignore list.

[mushymanrob]

interesting 12z, alot of high pressure around later next week . yep eugene, it doesnt mean sunnshine and warmth, but it does promise some very normal average weather for april, and DRY! :lol: . in any sun it will feel very pleasant.

[phil nw.]

It seems everytime HP is shown on the models people over exaggerate the temps it would give or have tunnel vision and think it`ll mean only one weather type ie sunny and warm, well it doesnt work like that unfortunately there is nothing that warm on GFS 12Z at all and looking at the ensembles you`ll see many different solutions for after mid week, quite a few develop easterlies or have a developing area of LP move over us or have HP to our west letting fronts slide down from the northwest, why people dont consider these options is just people being too fixated on their weather preference.

It does depend on the windflow around the High.

Monday looks quite pleasant for some as shown on the 12Z.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn9617.png

In the South Westely breeze somewhere in the East or South East could get a 13 or 14C with the Sun out in mid-afternoon.

See the other side of the coin later in the week when it looks much cooler with a cloudier High just to our West and a cooler Northerly/North Easterly flow making North Sea areas decidedly chilly.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1681.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn16817.png

At this time of year the cold North Sea can have quite an influence on cloud and temps.especially along Eastern areas if there`s a hint of East in the wind and this can extend into June.

Edited April 1, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is a tendency, particularly towards the summer, for some to see high pressure and automatically assume it means warm sunshine as well as dryness, but I'm not seeing much of that in the recent discussion. I think the ECMWF longer-term output would promise a good deal of warm sunshine, with relatively warm airmasses being sent up from the south and west and the high then sat on top of the country- we're at the time of year where the sun is strong enough to burn off most cloud cover once we have a fat anticyclone on top of us.

Regarding Mushymanrob's post, well dull cool dry weather with odd bits of drizzle will always generate differences of opinion, but if the GFS 12Z came then I imagine that this is what most of central and eastern England would see for the latter part of next week.

I think the exaggeration of temperatures perhaps reflects the overly high expectations and impatience for summer, but I think if the ECMWF came off then 20C would be quite likely to occur locally.

[Derp Patrol]

But we are now at the time of year where a cloudless sunny day will be warm, and a southerly is not needed for 20C. It depends where the high ends up though.

[Nick F]

ECM has been suggesting for a while for a highly meridional wave pattern to develop, with the UK falling under a ridge eventually which builds NE from Iberia in response to an amplifying trough upstream over the mid-Atlantic. Building heights/thicknesses from the SW or S is usually a good indication that warm sunshine is likely if winds are light - and we see this briefly on ECM around t+192, though both GFS and ECM suggest the mean ridge overall may keep SW, W or NW of the UK - which would allow a cool flow from the N, NE or E, so no early spring heatwave on the horizon yet.

[Ben_Cambs]

yes at 5c in the sun today felt quite warm actually... im surprised the snow is surviving up there seen a six foot drift today on the side of the road was blown up last night! I actually wouldnt mind this weather its nice..

Joe, please can you not post the weather conditions in the model thread, as it is totally unrelated to the thread and it doesnt help those who are new on here. Thanks

The ECM 12z has watered down the HP on this run, and as strong is the previous 2 runs and I'm sure 20C would be difficult to be achieved on this run, but nevertheless, it would be dry and sunny. The centre of the HP retrogresses to Iceland and remains there around at T+240. So this is unlikely to bring anything majorly warm, maybe temporarily a southerly, but afterwards a cool N/NE/E. But until next Wednesday or so, it will remain unsettled with Atlantic systems on Friday and Monday, a classic April Sunshine and showers day on Saturday, Sunday looks like being the driest day, although there will be heavy showers still around

Edited April 1, 2010 by Snowman0697