June CET

[Milhouse]

If June exceeds 15.0c (which I think it will) then it'll be following a similar (yet much warmer) 1963 pattern.

January 1963 -2.1c

February 1963 -0.7c

March 1963 6.0c

April 1963 8.7c

May 1963 10.6c

June 1963 14.9c

January 2010 1.4c

February 2010 2.8c

March 2010 6.1c

April 2010 8.8c

May 2010 10.7c

And i hope the similarity stops from now on. The rest of Summer 1963 was poor. August was dreadful.

[Optimus Prime]

July wasn't too bad at 15.2c. Cool 1st - 20th warm 20th - 24th cool again by warm last 3 days.

August was pretty dire at 14.3c. Wet and unsettled as well. First half averaged 15.0c and second half 13.6c.

[summer blizzard]

July wasn't too bad at 15.2c. Cool 1st - 20th warm 20th - 24th cool again by warm last 3 days.

August was pretty dire at 14.3c. Wet and unsettled as well. First half averaged 15.0c and second half 13.6c.

A july CET of 15.2C is bad, its 1.3C below average and the same CET recorded as in July 2007.

[SteveB]

14.7 to the 22nd, 0.7c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Optimus Prime]

A july CET of 15.2C is bad, its 1.3C below average and the same CET recorded as in July 2007.

July 2007 was bad because it rained all the time. That wasn't the case in 1963.

15.2c is 1.3c below the recent average but the 1931-1960 is 16.2c so it's only 1.0c below normal. It was mean minima that kept the average down on that month (10.4c with mean Maxima at 19.8c)

Edited June 23, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[SteveB]

14.8c to the 23rd, 0.8c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Jack Wales]

If we get a CET average of 20C for the next 7 days, that will deliver a June CET of 16C

[BornFromTheVoid]

If we get a CET average of 20C for the next 7 days, that will deliver a June CET of 16C

I'm fairly sure that's not going to happen, but ya never know! The min today is the highest of the year so far at 13.1C, but maxes today look similar or maybe slightly less then the last few, so we will probably end up averaging 18C for today. So we'd require 20.3C per day to reach 16C.

Tomorrow looks like having a min of around 10 and max of between 24C and 25C, so a 17.5C average possible. Which would then need 20.8C average per day to reach 16C.

I'd guess a finish of 15.6 or 15.7C before adjustments. It seems to me that we might struggle to get a day averaging above 20C. Last day of the month looks most likely to achieve this.

Out of curiousity, anybody know what the highest cet minimum on record is?

[Optimus Prime]

Out of curiousity, anybody know what the highest cet minimum on record is?

August 29th 1948 (18.8c)

I don't know for June.

[The PIT]

August 29th 1948 (18.8c)

I don't know for June.

Min CET ??????

[AderynCoch]

July 29th 1948 (18.8c)

Fixed it for you . That date also saw the highest daily CET mean in the series (25.2C), mainly thanks to a ridiculously warm night (minimum of 23.3C in London, which I believe was a record until 1990). The CET maximum was also high of course (31.6C) but there have been other days with even higher values.

11th August 1997 also recorded a CET minimum of 18.8C. Other notable daily CET minima include 9th August 2004 (18.5C) and 4th July 1976 (18.0C).

[Weather-history]

.

I am now beginning, similar to as with April, to ask the question as to whether we can achieve a proper cooler CET than average in June, even much below 14*C.

I am sorry but for someone who posts a lot of data you have a far too 2-dimensional analytic way of interpreting it.

It does not require a great leap of logic or a degree of lateral thinking to see that is still within realms of possibility. Why you can't see this is beyond me especially after the May just gone when you were questioning whether we will ever see an April that was at least 0.5C below the average but lo behold the following month did so. Now, if the month that lies between April and June managed to do it, it is pretty logical to assume that the two month either side can achieve it.

Why can't you see this? You sound like a recording, a tape going over and over again, no matter how often you have been told, you are trapped in the original recording loop unable or unwilling to snap out of it.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Put it this way, the first halves of Junes 1995 and 2001 were a good 2-3C down on the long-term average, and global temperatures were only a tenth or two of a degree below today's values. Junes 2000 and 2001 were both much colder than average over Scotland, and June 2001 likewise in the northern quarter of England.

It is harder to get significantly below-average months in the summer half-year than in the winter half-year though- this has always been the case irrespective of GW/AGW.

[reef]

Put it this way, the first halves of Junes 1995 and 2001 were a good 2-3C down on the long-term average, and global temperatures were only a tenth or two of a degree below today's values. Junes 2000 and 2001 were both much colder than average over Scotland, and June 2001 likewise in the northern quarter of England.

It is harder to get significantly below-average months in the summer half-year than in the winter half-year though- this has always been the case irrespective of GW/AGW.

Not to mention we've had a 5.8C April in 1986, 9.1C May in 1996 and 12.1C June in 1991. Between now and those times, the change in global temperatures has been maybe 0.2-0.3C.

While certainly much rarer, last winter proved we can still get a comfortably below average season.

You're correct about well below average summers being more difficult to achieve compared to other seasons too. There have only been 8 more than 1C below their respective 30 year averages since 1900.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I am sorry but for someone who posts a lot of data you have a far too 2-dimensional analytic way of interpreting it.

It does not require a great leap of logic or a degree of lateral thinking to see that is still within realms of possibility. Why you can't see this is beyond me especially after the May just gone when you were questioning whether we will ever see an April that was at least 0.5C below the average but lo behold the following month did so. Now, if the month that lies between April and June managed to do it, it is pretty logical to assume that the two month either side can achieve it.

Why can't you see this? You sound like a recording, a tape going over and over again, no matter how often you have been told, you are trapped in the original recording loop unable or unwilling to snap out of it.

We haven't had an April at least 0.5*C below average for 21 years, or a June at least 0.5*C below average for 19 years, you would reasonably expect in two decades or so that every month in the year will come in comfortably under average at some point, although of course some months in the year are bound to fall below average on more occasions than others. I am only continuing commenting on various patterns of weather that appear to have all but dissappeared from the UK's weather in recent years. When I look back on the above or any other type of weather that the UK has not experienced for two decades or so then I start to become concerned if it is still achievable. Last winter was the first significantly colder than average one for 14 years (2008-09 was below average but it wasn't especially so), and last month brought the first cooler than average May for 14 years which I found great to see, to at last see a little more variablity in our weather, instead of every year seeing the weather often being like a recording tape of the same pattern repeating itself almost year after year, which almost appeared to have become the norm during the 2000s and largely in the 1990s.

As last winter progressed I finally after so many years of almost endless mild winters, and how rare cold winters had become in the last 20+ years, had the relief of my life that a significantly colder than average winter is still possible in the UK, as before I had started to fear that 2008-09 or even 2005-06 was the modern version of 1978-79 or even 1962-63, and that a winter like the mid 1980s or 1995-96 was no longer possible, and last winter has left me much happier.

Until this year it was still a number of years since May was below average, but it is now April and June that have not been below average for the longest period of time - surely it must be a record for any month in the year to not record a below average CET for two decades or thereabouts.

Edited June 24, 2010 by North-Easterly Blast

[summer blizzard]

June and April 2008 were both slightly below average, i understand what you are trying to say, but whether its 2C below or 0.2C, below average is below average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

1930-1943

14 consecutive Junes either average or above average. Wonder what they thought then?

[Milhouse]

And the attraction in recording a very cool June is?

[damianslaw]

This June is turning out to be a very good summer month - however, CET wise it is not going to turn out as one of the warmest thanks to some notably cool minima at time and the relatively cold weather in the second week.

Edited June 24, 2010 by damianslaw

[Weather-history]

1930-1943

14 consecutive Junes either average or above average. Wonder what they thought then?

The summers of the 1960s are always described as being largely cool but what is forgotten is that the Junes were not that cool, infact 6 were above the 1971-2000 average and not one was more than 0.5C below the 1971-2000 average.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The summers of the 1960s are always described as being largely cool but what is forgotten is that the Junes were not that cool, infact 6 were above the 1971-2000 average and not one was more than 0.5C below the 1971-2000 average.

Yes very true. In the 1960s it was July and August that were cool overall, whereas the June average for the 1960s was 14.6*C, so in a cool decade the Junes were warmer than average overall.

However, what is not always remembered is that June is one of the two months in the year where the 1971-2000 average is lower than the 1961-90 average. On top of this, June is also the only month in the year where both these sets of averages are lower than the June average for both the 1700s and 1800s. The overall average June CET for these centuries was about 14.3*C I believe. Correct me if I am wrong, Kevin?

After Junes tending to be on the warm side in the 1960s along with cool Julys and Augusts, June did then switch to being quite cool overall in the 1970s and 1980s and the Junes of the 1990s were not that warm either, and the 2000s have turned out to be one of the warmest if not the warmest ever decade for June.

Another warm June now looks set to be recorded with the CET possibly ending at around 15.5*C, so whilst it may not be one of the warmest ever, if it does end at 15.5*C then only around nine Junes in the last 100 years will have surpassed this month. It will also be the first month since Nov 2009 where the CET has been at least 1*C above average. Nonetheless, it will still have been the coolest first half to a year since 1996, so this must significantly increase the chances of a sub 10*C CET year.

[Jack Wales]

I'd guess a finish of 15.6 or 15.7C before adjustments. It seems to me that we might struggle to get a day averaging above 20C. Last day of the month looks most likely to achieve this.

I hope you are right as my guess for June is 15.6! All month I was thinking I'd pitched a little bit on the high side but ironically I'll probably come in at 0.2C under.

[BornFromTheVoid]

14.9C to the 24th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 17.5C

Minimum for today is 10.4C, and the max looks like being between 23-24C, so an average of around 17.0C looks likely, and so 15.0C to the 25th.

I hope you are right as my guess for June is 15.6! All month I was thinking I'd pitched a little bit on the high side but ironically I'll probably come in at 0.2C under.

Your 15.6C is looking better than my 14.6C anyway!

[Stu_London]

still reasonably happy with my 15.3 guess, given we might see a downward recalibration.

Should be within 0.5C in any event

[RichardR]

Surprised it's only 14.9C to the 24th. Here in Buxton Derbyshire it's already 14.0C.