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Convective Discussion

Nick F

By Nick F
in Storms & Severe Weather

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staplehurst Community Regular

staplehurst

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted (edited)

25.3mm of rain so far in just 8 hours. Makes it the highest daily rainfall so far this year (and it hasn't stopped raining yet!)

Shame about the lack of pyrotechnics that could have accompanied it last night...

For many in Kent, I presume the rainfall last night came close to those values produced by Xynthia on 28th Feb?

Edited by staplehurst
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Author
Posted

Based on the last 2 GFS runs, I wouldn’t rule out convective potential across SW and central-S England, and S Wales on Monday, as a closed upper low ejects SSE across western UK late Sunday and on Monday towards NW France, the associated cold pool with the upper low will steepen lapse rates and bring risk of thunderstorms given some surface heating.

post-1052-12762531045186_thumb.pngpost-1052-12762531278169_thumb.png

But after that, looking rather quiet with cool stable NE, N or NW flows

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

Based on the last 2 GFS runs, I wouldn’t rule out convective potential across SW and central-S England, and S Wales on Monday, as a closed upper low ejects SSE across western UK late Sunday and on Monday towards NW France, the associated cold pool with the upper low will steepen lapse rates and bring risk of thunderstorms given some surface heating.

post-1052-12762531045186_thumb.pngpost-1052-12762531278169_thumb.png

But after that, looking rather quiet with cool stable NE, N or NW flows

to add to nicks charts , looks like a chance in the central south/swdrinks.gif

and a little hint of something for the se on thursday night long way of tho....

post-11361-12762683065926_thumb.png

post-11361-12762683137762_thumb.png

post-11361-12762683196067_thumb.png

post-11361-12762683307211_thumb.png

post-11361-12762683348916_thumb.png

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Based on the last 2 GFS runs, I wouldn’t rule out convective potential across SW and central-S England, and S Wales on Monday

:)

MU_London_avn.png

MU_Manchester_avn.png

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Maybe a thundery shower in the Midlands tomorrow? :) Then a chance for the SW on Monday seems to be the general idea.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

Maybe a thundery shower in the Midlands tomorrow? smile.gif Then a chance for the SW on Monday seems to be the general idea.

yes i think there is a risk for thunder late on sunday..then sw/s-central and s wales in monday
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

trough circled is the main thunder risk as it crosses se..

post-11361-12763411954962_thumb.png

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Craigers Seasoned

Craigers

Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
Posted

good news for people who havnt had a storm or heard thunder at all in yorkshire!!!!

NMM model is looking good for tomorrow for at least rumbles of thunder :)

main risk zone right in the middle of yorkshire!

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

ive made a chart based on GFS output at 06z for sunday/monday thunder risk.. alto could change abit as we know...

post-11361-12763526650436_thumb.png

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

T Storms mentioned this morning forecast. Again a case of watch and see if anything happens.

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Gordon Newbie

Gordon

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
Posted (edited)

Well if the BBC is to be believed

There are Storms forecast for everywhere but Scotland and to last overnight too

Think the BBC is overdoing this just a little bit

Edited by Gordon
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Snowyowl9 Veteran

Snowyowl9

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Posted

Yes surprising to see thunderstorms shown and said for this evening,but maybe this is no ordinary set-up,with a low coming in the way it is,and noticing some convective mid-level cloud about this morning and it`s only rather cool.

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack0.gif

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Yes surprising to see thunderstorms shown and said for this evening,but maybe this is no ordinary set-up,with a low coming in the way it is,and noticing some convective mid-level cloud about this morning and it`s only rather cool.

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack0.gif

I was just going to say that there's a lot of mid-level altocumulus cloud around, a sort of mackerel sky pattern at the moment with little pockets of virga (jellyfish). Good signs really though still slightly on the cool side.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Ello,Ello Whats goin on ere then..

Just noticed estofex have a warning out. Can this be true?

You'll have to stay tuned to find out.

Will Lynxus loose his mind again waiting for storms? Will he be flooded?

All will be answered on this weeks episode of, "UK Storms gone Mad"

Stay tuned.

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

we had thundery rain here at 4.30am.....and doesnt surprise me if we get some action as the sky looks very Thundery

Edited by dogs32
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

we had thundery rain here at 4.30am.....and doesnt surprise me if we get some action as the sky looks very Thundery

That may explain why my cars so dirty this morning.

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

That may explain why my cars so dirty this morning.

torrential down pours expected here this afternoon and through-out the tonight from Showers

Edited by dogs32
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Cloud Rookie

Cloud

Posted
Posted

we had thundery rain here at 4.30am.....and doesnt surprise me if we get some action as the sky looks very Thundery

Lapse rates look to steepen during the day as an upper trough moves in with colder upper air. Convective chances will be linked to the amount of heating you can get but it won't need to get overly warm given upper level airmass will be quite cold.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Lapse rates look to steepen during the day as an upper trough moves in with colder upper air. Convective chances will be linked to the amount of heating you can get but it won't need to get overly warm given upper level airmass will be quite cold.

Sun is strong today when it comes out.

Barely any wind but its actually a nice day so far.

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Lapse rates look to steepen during the day as an upper trough moves in with colder upper air. Convective chances will be linked to the amount of heating you can get but it won't need to get overly warm given upper level airmass will be quite cold.

here is hoping for a light show tonight...

Camera and car on stand by mode..lol

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Casper Newbie

Casper

Posted
  • Location: Swindon ,Wilts;
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: Swindon ,Wilts;
Posted

Fingers crossed then! Maybe it'll be Swindons turn.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

here is hoping for a light show tonight...

Camera and car on stand by mode..lol

Your car has a standby mode? :D

I think i better put some petrol in just encase :)

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

Your car has a standby mode? :)

I think i better put some petrol in just encase :)

well I was realy surprised how heavy the rain was this morning,I had to double check the radar for lightning.

So the potentail is there I reckon....

And seeing its Sunday I will shoot out in Glos if there is any potent Storms tonight.

night lightning :D

Edited by dogs32
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Stuart Experienced

Stuart

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
Posted

Well if the BBC is to be believed

There are Storms forecast for everywhere but Scotland and to last overnight too

Think the BBC is overdoing this just a little bit

well look like it a miss for me over night if bbc weather right

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Gordon Newbie

Gordon

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
Posted (edited)

Looks like a decent day potentially for all you storm lovers

Me I've got 12-18 hours of worrying to do as this weather is not my cup of tea at all

I'd hide under the bed if I could fit

well look like it a miss for me over night if bbc weather right

Looks like I'm in for a battering but you can never tell with showers / storms

Edited by Gordon
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