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Convective Discussion


Nick F

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OK- now Im really starting to feel sickly envious!! bad.gif     Cell has deffo sprung a bit of life back into it, I thought we almost lost it.  There's still no sferics with it, so we will need your ears for thunder if any!

LOL, any excuse to use the vomit smiley! :bad:

Still can't really see much outside, maybe it's a little darker to the east, but nothing really out of the ordinary. I shall listen for thunder! Got the window open and the music off!  :lol:

Ok it is noticeably getting darker to my east now :)

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Becoming very dark here now, looks like it is going to hit :bad:

Currently looks like a fish on 5 beta... :lol:

It's really pepped up on the south side of it. Light drizzle here...

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, NY!! (151m) 496ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Supernova hot summers with mega lightning storms, and SNOWMAGGEDON WINTERS!
  • Location: Cambridge, NY!! (151m) 496ft ASL

laugh.gif hahaha! check out the isolated deep red dot over Bingham.

nevermind,... you cant see the town on the map!!!

post-8050-12760867812091_thumb.png

Edited by Crimson_Sprite
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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire.
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire.

The suns been out, im about 15 mins away and we have had no sun here, a few miles makes a difference it seems!

Becoming very dark here now, looks like it is going to hit biggrin.gif

No sun now Mark. Just fast moving scud cloud. It's gone very dark towards the area I mentioned and it looks to be moving towards us at S41.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storms more isolated than yesterday so far, though it's still early. Sferic over E Midlands/Lincs way. Seems to be a convergence zone SW to NE from Pembrokeshire to Lincs which is a focus for convection.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

Currently looks like a fish on 5 beta... laugh.gif

It's really pepped up on the south side of it. Light drizzle here...

Its certainly moving very slowly! Its taken about 25 minutes get from worksop to here

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Storms more isolated than yesterday so far, though it's still early. Sferic over E Midlands/Lincs way. Seems to be a convergence zone SW to NE from Pembrokeshire to Lincs which is a focus for convection.

Do you have any ideas Nick on the potential thundery weather expected to arrive with the front tonight/tomorrow? I'd expect any thundery weather to be embedded within frontal activity but was curious as to yours (and anyone else's) confidence of thunder occurring tonight/tomorrow?

Cheers, H

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, NY!! (151m) 496ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Supernova hot summers with mega lightning storms, and SNOWMAGGEDON WINTERS!
  • Location: Cambridge, NY!! (151m) 496ft ASL

LOL, any excuse to use the vomit smiley! bad.gif

Still can't really see much outside, maybe it's a little darker to the east, but nothing really out of the ordinary. I shall listen for thunder! Got the window open and the music off! clap.gif

Ok it is noticeably getting darker to my east now smile.gif

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! I had to use the vomit smiley!

OK, popped my head out of the skylight which looks east toward Bingham and there is dark clouds and scud, so thats cool. The red dot has expanded to one red dot with 5 oranges around it, but its the size of a molecule so my only hope is that it grows...

damn.. its just downgraded to greens and blues.... grrrrrrrr....

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

HAHA!!! Hi!!!!! I still laugh when I remember that photo you put up of that kid gettin his head shaved shouting "I WON!!!!!!!!!!"" and Butler havin to shave his head hahaha!!

Yeah what we need is some convective snow LOL!! (obviously with thunder and lightning and funnels of course)

Hows your cloud cover down in Leicester? Are you clearing up yet for any CUs to pop up?? I cant rid of this cloud!! (shakes fist violently in the sky)

They were the days :bad:

Maybe some more fun and games like that again this Winter :) If I don't end up offending peeps with it!

The cloud cover down here is starting to break, can see the sun coming out now! This should hopefully kick off some thunderstorms! The showers are so slow moving at the moment, on the N-W radar the showers have moved about 15 miles in an hour :lol:

We need some homegrown ones to start up, at least the conditions are decent around Notts/Leicester for storms later on this afternoon. Cape of 300-400 isnt exactly on the same level of the American storms but at least it's better than 0 Cape!

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Wind picked up and it has finally begun to rain. Skies very dark and threatening to the east now, but no thunder heard.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Storms more isolated than yesterday so far, though it's still early. Sferic over E Midlands/Lincs way. Seems to be a convergence zone SW to NE from Pembrokeshire to Lincs which is a focus for convection.

A line of showers , some torrential also developed from southampton to canterbury

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Do you have any ideas Nick on the potential thundery weather expected to arrive with the front tonight/tomorrow? I'd expect any thundery weather to be embedded within frontal activity but was curious as to yours (and anyone else's) confidence of thunder occurring tonight/tomorrow?

Cheers, H

Unfortunately the potential for the far SE/E Anglia that was showing from NAE and UKMO global last night when I did my forecast has now evaporated, GFS for once maybe right all along. Storm threat moving north over continent likely to be further east over the Low Countries. There is still potential for some storms to creep over the Channel from France tomorrow evening/night though.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, NY!! (151m) 496ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Supernova hot summers with mega lightning storms, and SNOWMAGGEDON WINTERS!
  • Location: Cambridge, NY!! (151m) 496ft ASL

They were the days clap.gif

Maybe some more fun and games like that again this Winter tongue.gif If I don't end up offending peeps with it!

The cloud cover down here is starting to break, can see the sun coming out now! This should hopefully kick off some thunderstorms! The showers are so slow moving at the moment, on the N-W radar the showers have moved about 15 miles in an hour dry.gif

We need some homegrown ones to start up, at least the conditions are decent around Notts/Leicester for storms later on this afternoon. Cape of 300-400 isnt exactly on the same level of the American storms but at least it's better than 0 Cape!

These days Im happy as pie if I get like 300+ cape. The cells are pretty much stagnant, I keep laughing looking at the radar at Loughboro cuz me other half is down there diggin a huge hole outside to underpin this building they're workin on. The cell has been chucking rain down in Loughboro for like 2 hours hahahaha! Its not moved!! His poor hole must be full o' water hahaha! (I shouldnt laugh..)

If my house sells, I should be up in good ol' Crich this winter, so I DEFFO should get some snow then!!!! blum.gif

That Worksop cells just turned in to a big slimey donut now.. Thats such a shame, I really thought it would produce... still might though!! I have a storm sheild up over Notts at the moment hahaha!! Sun still hasnt broke through, but the clouds are looking better and more defined..

yahoo.gifTHE SUN FINALLY CAME OUT!!!!!

Its certainly moving very slowly! Its taken about 25 minutes get from worksop to here

That cell seems to be re-intensifying again, is it to the east of you? Its coming into Matlock..

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

That cell seems to be re-intensifying again, is it to the east of you? Its coming into Matlock..

Overcast with periods of light and heavy rain, nothing to exciting though. Seems to be intensifying in one or two spots around me, looks like it could dull for a while!

Edited by mark bayley
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Unfortunately the potential for the far SE/E Anglia that was showing from NAE and UKMO global last night when I did my forecast has now evaporated, GFS for once maybe right all along. Storm threat moving north over continent likely to be further east over the Low Countries. There is still potential for some storms to creep over the Channel from France tomorrow evening/night though.

:lol: SOME hope maybe

Thanks Nick!

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Posted
  • Location: Stevenage, Herts
  • Location: Stevenage, Herts

A really heavy shower passed over at about 13:45 whilst i was in a physics exam. Really heavy rain and i don't think there was any lightening or thunder.

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

cray.gif SOME hope maybe

Thanks Nick!

?????drunk.gif

post-11361-12760907635477_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

?????drunk.gif

Unlikely today/tonight. Maybe tomorrow evening/night.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

?????drunk.gif

GFS shows storms which form over NW France could potentially form an MCS type feature and drift NW'wards, though not quite making the SW coast. Tomorrow GFS shows storms breaking out once again across N France though not keen for them to reach our shores...time will tell I suppose.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Blimey it's sweaty out there. The sun has been out here for the last 30 minutes or so.

Indeed, and to think I was led to believe by the MO thread that this week would be cool!

Anyway, ended up getting 11.5mm in 2 hours this morning, lawns have had a decent soaking this week already.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Just noticed that MetO are now charting a potential triple point to drift over the south coast tomorrow night (which is why I presume Nick is thinking possible thunder for that period)...looking forward to seeing how that pains out!

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire.
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire.

It is just like yesterday now outside.

Dull and dreary with the odd spot of rain and there's not much in the way for any improvement looking at the satellite. We need some more sun to boost things.

Boring. lazy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Just noticed that MetO are now charting a potential triple point to drift over the south coast tomorrow night

Hmmmmmm a014.gif

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_42_00Z.png

gfs_spout_eur39.png

gfs_icape_eur39.png

gfs_omega_eur39.png

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Anything but boring here. Nice warm and humid with sunny intervals this afternoon. this has set off a developing Cb line just east of here, set to arrive shortly. Hoping to get thunder possibly.

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Unlikely today/tonight. Maybe tomorrow evening/night.

just looking for even the smallest chance of thunderstorms , thursday night i really hope we see something thundery ,the potential is there for us in the se.drinks.gif
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