Convective Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

Better than the many people who have had absolutely nothing 

We've been desperately unlucky up here over the last few days. Yes we have never been in the middle of the 'risk zones' but we've been very close to a direct hit on numerous occasions, and got nothing.

That said, we had thunder last week so I shall restrain myself from moaning too much. It could be worse Blizzards 

Yes it could be much worse. Im used to seeing so ppn die out before us but no change there. :lol: I dont think it will be too long before the next chance of thundery weather. Hopefully we can get High and Low pressures in the right place.

[A.J]

Hello all....Are there any members here from the Daventry/Leamington Spa area??....I spotted a funnel cloud around 1700 hrs to the SW of Badby..I'd estimate it between 7-10 miles SW of Daventry...Havent had chance to review radar returns as I've just got in from work..

On a side note, I've had a very interesting drive back home up the M6...Noticed a wide, rapid rotation between J2 & J3 of the M6, north side of Coventry, very low cloud base, very strong winds....Have there been any tornado reports from that area? (would be around 8pm)

[matt_in_dudley]

Haha! Oh i love it, just checked on that Will it Rain website's radar and at my exact location, the showers are fizzling out!

[Nick F]

Convective potential looks over for many tomorrow, however, for the far south of England there may still be potential for some thunder tomorrow night/Friday morning as slow moving low over Bay of Biscay throws frontal triple point towards the south coast by 00z, while rather warm moist air advects west off the near continent (WBPTs of up to 16C) ahead/along frontal boundary - which will be uplifted/destabilised by front lifting north and also by shortwave likely to be moving NNE across N France Thurs night/Friday morning.

Aviation forecast going for occasional heavy rain with risk of embedded t-storms moving N across English Channel from France across parts of southern England Friday morning. ECM has some quite high rainfall totals at 06z Friday:

After that, looks like being quiet on the storm front for a while.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Local forecast with MF says that there is about a 40% chance of heavy rain tomorrow night (no mention at all about thunder) for southern most districts. For my part anyway, hopefully only a few showers.

After that, settling down for the weekend in terms of some dry bright weather (that said, today was actually lovely!)

[staplehurst]

Why is Michael Fish sporting an 'Early Warning' for tomorrow night on the local forecast? Nothing from the Met Office!

[Nick F]

Local forecast with MF says that there is about a 40% chance of heavy rain tomorrow night (no mention at all about thunder) for southern most districts. For my part anyway, hopefully only a few showers.

After that, settling down for the weekend in terms of some dry bright weather (that said, today was actually lovely!)

Are you the only person on this thread that doesn't seem to want thunderstorms?

Is only a fairly low risk tomorrow evening/night it has to be said.

[staplehurst]

Why is Michael Fish sporting an 'Early Warning' for tomorrow night on the local forecast? Nothing from the Met Office!

Having watched the video forecast from the early evening broadcast he explains it more clearly - the Met Office have apparently issued an Early Warning for a 40% risk of 20-30mm of rain across the Southeast on Thursday night. This must be a 'behind the scenes' jobby since there is nothing on their website yet, and this might also explain why Rob McElwee felt the need to zoom into southern counties on his forecast for tomorrow night...

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Are you the only person on this thread that doesn't seem to want thunderstorms?

Is only a fairly low risk tomorrow evening/night it has to be said.

Yes, sorry, I should have just mentioned what MF said as passing info for the rest of you .

I will leave my sunshine wishes for a more relevant thread and thereby leave you all in peace

[Neilsouth]

Having watched the video forecast from the early evening broadcast he explains it more clearly - the Met Office have apparently issued an Early Warning for a 40% risk of 20-30mm of rain across the Southeast on Thursday night. This must be a 'behind the scenes' jobby since there is nothing on their website yet, and this might also explain why Rob McElwee felt the need to zoom into southern counties on his forecast for tomorrow night...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

Run the radar loop and see!

[Phil UK]

Looks like the East and South East of England could well be seeing all the atmospheric pyrotecnics at some point today, and possibly well into dark as well.

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=fr&sat=ir&type=loop

Good luck.

Phil.

[Phil UK]

A one hour and 15 minute torrential rainstorm (And I mean Torrential with a captial 'T') But alas, no thunder at all.

That same streak of PNP that got stuck over the Birmingham area was disappointing, if not created the the biggest puddles I've seen for some years, so I suppose at the end of it, I could have had a new and naturally built fishpond. (See pic below!) But was some really torrential stair-rod rain that I've not seen in years, especially in the duration which was around 1 hour and 15 minutes. But no thunder or lightnighnig at all. (Jane Louise, I'm coming back! ;-) )

Some pics though.

Tuesday evening, this thing seemed to stick around in the sky forever!

My turn now maybe? Errm... No, as it turned out.

Now some lucky git is getting drenched.

Wednesday 9th June 2010...

Nice sky. I wonder what Stourbride looked like when this behemoth passed over. Blizzards. ;-)

That's looking over your area, and north of Birmingham at the time.

But not quite done yet...

Yikes!!

Phil.

[r6 steve]

Cant wait to see what goes on today!! keep your fingers crossed for the Solent area.Its cloudy and muggy at the moment

[Coast]

Here's what others are showing today:

ESTOFEX

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 10 Jun 2010 06:00 to Fri 11 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 09 Jun 2010 23:46

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for western France mainly for tornadoes and large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A deep polar trough is present over western Europe, yielding a strong south-westerly mid-level flow across the west Mediterranean into France and Germany. While the trough shows some cut-off tendencies associated with rising geopotential over the North Sea, a 40 m/s mid-level jet streak ejects from its southern periphery into France. At lower levels, warm air advection will go on from France to the regions further east while the main frontal boundary is present along the southern North Sea and Baltic Sea.

DISCUSSION

France into Benelux, western Germany, and Switzerland

The first of two very strong mid-level jet streaks will affect France on Thursday. Winds will peak at 45 m/s at the 500 hPa level near the Pyrenees in the morning hours, when the jet axis will be directed towards southern Belgium. At lower levels, warm air advection will be present over most portions of France. Strong vertical wind shear is likely over most places, forcing is expected to be in place for most of the period, and low-level moisture will be around 10 g/kg over a broad area. The main uncertainty will be the low-level heating and release of CAPE given widespread showers and clouds.

GFS and ECMWF both indicate a strong low-level southerly jet from the west Mediterranean Sea directed towards central France. To the east of this jet, strong low-level warming due to daytime heating is expected over the western Alpine region, while clouds and showers will lead to a cold pool over southern central France. A surface low is expected to move north-eastward ahead of this cold pool during the afternoon hours.

Current thinking is that some moisture pooling due to easterly surface winds and low-level convergence underneath the warm air will increase the CAPE over the north-western Alpine region in the afternoon and evening hours. Initiation will be no problem given the strong forcing along the low-level front and increasing QG forcing due to the mid-level trough entering the area from the south. A line of thunderstorms seems to be most likely over the south-eastern portions entering the western Alps in the evening hours. The strong mid-level jet streak may support a MCS with several bowing lines due to the strong vertical wind shear, and widespread severe wind gusts may be the most significant threat.

Further north, more isolated storms are forecast in the evening hours to the north of the surface low. Given favourably veering profiles, supercells are expected to develop, capable of producing very large hail and severe wind gusts. Tornadoes may be most likely near the low-level jet across central France, where weak diurnal heating will likely be a limiting factor.

Increasing QG forcing is expected in the evening and night hours, and storms are forecast to cluster, forming one or two MCSs with bowing lines, spreading north-westward into Benelux and western Germany. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the main threat, but excessive rain and tornadoes are not ruled out.

To the west of the main frontal boundary, a moist and rather warm air mass is expected across western France. While the low pressure centre will remain over the Bay of Biscay, southerly surface winds are likely over a broad region of western France and will lead to further warm air advection. In the afternoon hours, quite strong lift will spread northward ahead of the approaching mid-level trough axis, and models indicate that CAPE will increase, including rather strong low-level buoyancy. Best potential of severe weather is forecast to the north of the Pyrenees, where easterly surface winds are forecast and favourably veering profiles are expected. Supercells are forecast to produce very large hail and tornadoes. Further north, tornadoes and locally large hail are not ruled out as well, although the low-level vertical wind shear is expected to be rather weak. Storms are forecast to decay in the evening hours

.

UKASF:

Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-06-09 21:37:00

Valid: 2010-06-10 00:00:00 - 2010-06-10 23:59:00

Regions Affected

(Southern England is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Low pressure "Doris" is located over Biscay on Thursday, dominating the weather across the United Kingdom.

A warm and humid airmass is advected northwestwards around the eastern and northern flank of the system. Destabilisation of this airmass is expected to occur over France and the Low Countries, with scattered thunderstorms developing, with a threat of tornadoes.

Whilst the weather is forecast to be thunderstorm-free across most, if not all, of the United Kingdom, it is possible that the triple point of Low pressure "Doris" may contain some convective elements, which moves northwards into the English Channel during the evening, approaching Kent/Sussex at the very end of this forecast period. This remains uncertain, but there is a threat of embedded thunderstorms within the rainband moving slowly north across the Channel during the evening hours. We will monitor this developing situation during Thursday.

Currently:

I'm not sure if the tiny little corner of the SE will get something or if it will just be rain. I'm out and about this morning so might get a chance to have a mini chase!

[Harry]

I think the reason why the MetO have been quite sluggish in issuing warnings is because they are still quite unsure exactly where the front is going to lie, and what the intensity of the rainfall is likely to be.

Models have been in disagreement for some time quite where the heaviest stuff is going to be...it could be the difference between a 'bit of frontal rain' and 'torrential thunderstorm activity for several hours'.

Worth noting that this has been the warmest start to the day this week, despite the fact it's been humid all week. Very muggy feeling outside with a (to quote Dan Corbett) starting number of 15C at 6:15am this morning...

[Coast]

Worth noting that this has been the warmest start to the day this week, despite the fact it's been humid all week. Very muggy feeling outside with a (to quote Dan Corbett) starting number of 15C at 6:15am this morning...

Decidedly humid this morning and DP already 14.8 DgC in Eastbourne

[Phil UK]

Harry.

I'll be very surprised if someone, somewhere doesn't at some point later on this afternoon/evening doesn't witness a thunderstorm, even if just scraping the Kent/Sussex coast.

I've been watching that what seems to be a near stuck LP over Biscay over the last day or so and it has barely moved. Caused torrential downpours, storms and flooding over Spain, Iberia and a good part of France. Now I think it has, at least part of the UK in mind.

Latest satellite image already looks like an arm of PPN is heading over the Channel. What happens then? Who knows??

Phil.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

From all the charts that Coast puts up ( Thanks Coast). I'd say that it will only be Southern Counties, Kent, Sussex, Hampshire that are going to get anything, there may be a fair bit of rain elsewhere, but to have embedded storms is reasonably unusual.

Let's see what plays out, storms or no, there will be a fair drop of rain about tonight

[loopydreamer]

i love extreme weather of any sort! even extreme rainfall gets my adrenaline pumping! i dont think thunder will get as north as my location! i wonder just how much rain will fall this evening/tonight in the south east?

[Joneseye]

i love extreme weather of any sort! even extreme rainfall gets my adrenaline pumping! i dont think thunder will get as north as my location! i wonder just how much rain will fall this evening/tonight in the south east?

hi there - I have been wondering the same thing myself since Monday this week. The 06Z has shifted the projection slightly in terms of the sweet spot for rainfall - I reckon somewhere like East Meon to Petersfield area is the best spot:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=2;type=free;ct=9842~East%20Meon;sess=#forecasthttp://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=2;type=free;ct=9842~East%20Meon;sess=#forecast

[Harry]

From all the charts that Coast puts up ( Thanks Coast). I'd say that it will only be Southern Counties, Kent, Sussex, Hampshire that are going to get anything, there may be a fair bit of rain elsewhere, but to have embedded storms is reasonably unusual.

Let's see what plays out, storms or no, there will be a fair drop of rain about tonight

It's not that unusual NNW, especially in the summer months.

I love listening to heavy rain beating down on the roof, and if there is some thunder and lightning too, then yeah bonus :lol:

[staplehurst]

Raining here now too - so much for it just clipping the south coast, as our local forecast has just said! lol

Hoping for some thundery activity after midnight

[Harry]

Raining here now too - so much for it just clipping the south coast, as our local forecast has just said! lol

Hoping for some thundery activity after midnight

Based on previous forecasts I've seen (BBC) the heavy outbursts of rain are likely to spin E to W in pulses through the day and overnight. As night falls is when the heaviest and potentially thundery rain could start arriving, right through to rush hour and even late morning tomorrow.

Judging by the intensity of the rain forecast, I'm growing increasingly surprised that the MetO haven't put out a watch/warning...if torrential and persistent rain does arrive, not only could it mean potential flooding but also chaos on the roads tomorrow...I don't think an early advisory would be overdoing it IMO.

[loopydreamer]

Based on previous forecasts I've seen (BBC) the heavy outbursts of rain are likely to spin E to W in pulses through the day and overnight. As night falls is when the heaviest and potentially thundery rain could start arriving, right through to rush hour and even late morning tomorrow.

Judging by the intensity of the rain forecast, I'm growing increasingly surprised that the MetO haven't put out a watch/warning...if torrential and persistent rain does arrive, not only could it mean potential flooding but also chaos on the roads tomorrow...I don't think an early advisory would be overdoing it IMO.

yep! totally agree with u there harry

[andy_leics22]

yep! totally agree with u there harry

Kent girl now? I'm sure you was a Midlands girl a few months back

I reckon there will be some thunder about in the South East overnight.