General Storm Discussion Thread

[remymartin]

just joined... Supercells? where?

France, and they will be staying there

[wchris_uk]

ment to be at my neck of the woods but takin with a pinch of salt!

just joined... Supercells? where?

[Harry]

Think we need a reality check here people! Supercells are likely to form OVER Belgium and maybe far N tip of France near the Benelux borders, then head N/NNE. This is where the conditions favouring supercell development lie, inc 3000+ CAPE, Lifted Indices of up to my -8, strong upper level winds, deep layer sheer, the works!

Also favourable for some thunderstorms to develop further West across C/N France, but CAPE is in the order of 1000 and while there may just be the potential for them to organise a bit and maybe at times display severe characteristics, they are likely to be ordinary heavy showers and thunderstorms, and it is these which MAY run into Kent later in the day - NOT the supercells...as I elluded to before, I think Kaddy is probably as storm starved as the rest of us and maybe misplaced her love-eggs

Edited July 13, 2010 by Harry

[viking_smb]

Think we need a reality check here people! Supercells are likely to form OVER Belgium and maybe far N tip of France near the Benelux borders, then head N/NNE. This is where the conditions favouring supercell development lie, inc 3000+ CAPE, Lifted Indices of up to my -8, strong upper level winds, deep layer sheer, the works!

Also favourable for some thunderstorms to develop further West across C/N France, but CAPE is in the order of 1000 and while there may just be the potential for them to organise a bit and maybe at times display severe characteristics, they are likely to be ordinary heavy showers and thunderstorms, and it is these which MAY run into Kent later in the day - NOT the supercells...as I elluded to before, I think Kaddy is probably as storm starved as the rest of us and maybe misplaced her love-eggs :lol:

I hope there are no storms on thurs, as I have to 'Swamp Test' our pontoons down at the Boat Station :lol: in barry, (I'm in the Sea Cadets) for insurance purposes so I don't want thunder as I will be hiding in the container otherwise!!

Edited July 13, 2010 by viking_smb

[Jane Louise]

UKASF has their storm forecast out for tommorow. All I can say is Good Luck everybody!:lol: we'll see how it goes lol

Regions Affected

England, Wales, Northern Ireland and S Scotland (remainder of Scotland is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Deep area of Low pressure "Olivia" (FU Berlin) drifts slowly across Ireland during Wednesday, dominating the weather across the United Kingdom.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across a large portion of the THUNDERSTORM threat area in response to daytime heating and increasing instability. Moderate-sized hail is possible in any stronger cells, and there is an increased risk of locally severe weather across the east/northeast of England during the evening hours with a threat of a moderate tornado. Locally high rainfall totals are possible from persistent, torrential downpours. Showers will also contain locally strong gusty winds.

Showers are forecast to progressively decrease in coverage during the second half of the evening hours, becoming largely limited to coastal regions.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-310/

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Michael Fish at lunchtime said that the SE corner could well miss the worst of the heaviest thundery showers tomorrow. Kaddy then does the next local forecast and puts a complete opposite OTT dramatic spin on what is, essentially the same forecast and set of probablilites.

The rest I'm afraid is down to some classic chinese whispers of some people hopecasting and hanging on every word that a televison presenter says!

Perspective required indeed. From what I make of what Kaddy said amidst her over excitability - she was saying in rather OTT language that the strong storms will stay over the continent but there is the chance of the edge of some of the outer showers associated with the band over France clipping eastern Kent. Although she did certainly make it sound like we are hanging on the edge of some mid western US style storm outbreak

Personally I don't think it does the likes of these BBC forecasters any good when one suggests and implies sone thing and another barely six hours later suggests something else. Spin overdrive - and makes them look no better than the excessive ramping and sensationalism that occurs from individuals on these internet forums. It certainly provides the fuel for people to start wanting to jump onto transport and travel to other parts of the country in order to just see a thunderstorm. Bizarre.

Edited July 13, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Paul]

Without wishing to second guess anyone, would the more likely explanation be that new data had come in during that 6 hour gap which had changed the forecast? I'm pretty sure BBC forecasters tell it how they see it rather than spinning things for the sake of it..

To add to the above, pretty much all the ensembles on the 12z take the nasty stuff just east of the southeast corner...

Close call though - so worth watching for changes!!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Without wishing to second guess anyone, would the more likely explanation be that new data had come in during that 6 hour gap which had changed the forecast? I'm pretty sure BBC forecasters tell it how they see it rather than spinning things for the sake of it..

To add to the above, pretty much all the ensembles on the 12z take the nasty stuff just east of the southeast corner...

Close call though - so worth watching for changes!!

I don't think that is anything different to what I have just said above in terms of the outer band of that area clipping the SE corner:cc_confused: .

Sorry - in terms of presenters, it does depend imo on who is doing the presenting. I realise that my own wording is not in the spirit of the net weather audience that you would wish to encourage excitement in and post counts, but I don't think I am saying anything that is not true. Just not in the popular language most would want or hope to see. In the same way as someone who was appearing to be a killjoy about snow armeggedon possibilities in winter that everyone equally wanted to happen I guess.

I am sure that the hope is that those ensembles are indeed wrong. Then the additional benefit is that I can be also shown to be found amiss....

Edited July 13, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[staplehurst]

and 4 hours on and Kaddy's still barking on about them, and the forecast is live!

The pulse of rain, to me, does not look thundery anyway.

Edited July 13, 2010 by staplehurst

[A.J]

and 4 hours on and Kaddy's still barking on about them, and the forecast is live!

The pulse of rain, to me, does not look thundery anyway.

What's the problem?

[staplehurst]

What's the problem?

About how the supercells are likely to clip east Kent and maybe further west.I admire her enthusiasm, she's a great presenter, but I honestly doubt the pulse of rain is going to be thundery or supercellular in nature - just rain.That's just the way it looks to me...

Edited July 13, 2010 by staplehurst

[dogs32]

she could be just playing safe.....just incase they take a nose dive westwards..

anyway...like the States...you have to be patient and optimistic

Edited July 13, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Paul]

I think it's all a conspiracy - Michael Fish does forecasts for us, he knows Kaddy, he's told her to ramp it up because Netweather had a word in his ear, with the aim of making everyone post more. Don't know why I didn't think of that earlier.

In fact I've heard that tomorrow there could be a hurricane, 20 tornadoes and space craft landing in Trafalgar square - post about it here, and by the way only 2 words max per post.

[MetWX]

I think it's all a conspiracy - Michael Fish does forecasts for us, he knows Kaddy, he's told her to ramp it up because Netweather had a word in his ear, with the aim of making everyone post more. Don't know why I didn't think of that earlier.

In fact I've heard that tomorrow there could be a hurricane, 20 tornadoes and space craft landing in Trafalgar square - post about it here, and by the way only 2 words max per post.

Don't let Michael see that, 1987 all over again...

[Harry]

Well, Phil Avery is now talking of some heavier more persistent rain in the SE corner, just as Kaddy referred to earlier. Also worth noting, the rain in the SE (if it arrives) will be part of the same system responsible for the severe storms just 50-100 miles further East, so in essence Kaddy is spot on!

The charts have recently forecasted the event to be a bit further West - even slightly more further west, then the E Kent region could get some interesting weather indeed, IF it comes further west.

In conclusion, I look forward to viewing the charts tomorrow morning

Also Staplehurst, I find it quite unlikely its going to be just rain...I think there could be some torrential rain mixed in with perhaps some thunder also. The LP which is due to develop will form along a boundary of very warm and moist air, coupled with a lot of sheering winds aloft and nearer the ground... we currently are under some pretty warm and moist air, hence the showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. I agree, I think its unlikely Kent is going to see much of interest, however the models are indicating a change (for the good )

Edited July 13, 2010 by Harry

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think it's all a conspiracy - Michael Fish does forecasts for us, he knows Kaddy, he's told her to ramp it up because Netweather had a word in his ear, with the aim of making everyone post more. Don't know why I didn't think of that earlier.

In fact I've heard that tomorrow there could be a hurricane, 20 tornadoes and space craft landing in Trafalgar square - post about it here, and by the way only 2 words max per post. :D

I'm actually surprised by the nature of that reply. Perhaps I shouldn't be.

Maybe even your sleight of subtle sarcasm might even prove to be reality (although hopefully not)

[staplehurst]

Well, Phil Avery is now talking of some heavier more persistent rain in the SE corner, just as Kaddy referred to earlier. Also worth noting, the rain in the SE (if it arrives) will be part of the same system responsible for the severe storms just 50-100 miles further East, so in essence Kaddy is spot on!

The charts have recently forecasted the event to be a bit further West - even slightly more further west, then the E Kent region could get some interesting weather indeed, IF it comes further west.

In conclusion, I look forward to viewing the charts tomorrow morning

Also Staplehurst, I find it quite unlikely its going to be just rain...I think there could be some torrential rain mixed in with perhaps some thunder also. The LP which is due to develop will form along a boundary of very warm and moist air, coupled with a lot of sheering winds aloft and nearer the ground... we currently are under some pretty warm and moist air, hence the showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. I agree, I think its unlikely Kent is going to see much of interest, however the models are indicating a change (for the good )

We shall see - I would love to be proved wrong and experience a Kaddy 'supercell' (or even a Carol 'humdinger' ) but I genuinely don't believe the pulse of rain will be thundery when it passes our region - yes, most likely later in the day when it's across the North Sea/BeNeLux, but not during afternoon. I just can't see it on the charts sadly. Hope it changes though!

Edited July 13, 2010 by staplehurst

[Paul]

I'm actually surprised by the nature of that reply. Perhaps I shouldn't be.

Maybe even your sleight of subtle sarcasm might even prove to be reality (although hopefully not)

Was only being humorous, sometimes it's better that than to be sucked into a never ending world of arguing..

[dogs32]

well there you go...system is moving more westward...M4 here we come..

And Kaddy Ive added you to my facebook

no strings attached...yet

Edited July 13, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Lewis]

I think most of the action will be West Mids, NW England and the far NE England (Newcastle area).

I think' i'm a little too far south and east for tomorrow, maybe a couple of sharp downpours at best.

regards

Edited July 13, 2010 by North Sea Breeze

[MetWX]

Who is Kaddy?

[Paul Sherman]

well there you go...system is moving more westward...M4 here we come..

And Kaddy Ive added you to my facebook

no strings attached...yet

Filth

Who is Kaddy?

Filth

[Paul]

Who is Kaddy?

You don't know who Kaddy is

She's a bbc southeast weather forecaster

[Paul Sherman]

Oops Forgot to mention she is a special guest on Tour 4 next year

[dogs32]

Filth

Filth

did you put the order in from the shop on the phone...its a present for Kaddy ,,if you can remember the FIRST conversation

on another note Paul...might meet you down on the coast tomorrow night

Edited July 13, 2010 by Pat Carter