General Storm Discussion Thread

[r6 steve]

sounds good to me!! look forward to tomorrow!! lol

To be honest i think it could be the sort of setup with the heavy squally showers

in the winter where they line up with one after another and see em sweep on through!!!

but im hoping for a thunderstorm!! or a rumble with interesting cloud formations would do!

[Stormyking]

sounds good to me!! look forward to tomorrow!! lol

To be honest i think it could be the sort of setup with the heavy squally showers

in the winter where they line up with one after another and see em sweep on through!!!

but im hoping for a thunderstorm!! or a rumble with interesting cloud formations would do!

I think you could be right, but if this was october time these areas can do well in due to the warmer sea temps and cooler land temps if htat is right i have no idea lol.

But yeh fingers crossed for some thunder

[Geordiesnow]

I'm just wishing for anything, just a few flashes and rumbles would be good, and after 5pm please so I'm out of work. I suppose if it comes during work and takes out the power that would be fine too!

Latest NMM charts not looking quite as nice for PPN tomorrow...

06z run, 15z tomorrow...

12z run, 15z tomorrow...

Also slightly reduced CAPE values but that's probably always going to happen this close to the event. Hoping those PPN charts aren't anything to worry about.

Looking forward to radar watching and reading the forums as much as possible tomorrow at work.

I feel any coastal areas will miss most of the showers today as the winds will be coming from ESE direction going by the pressure charts so that chart i feel will be fairly accurate.

Unfortunately winds don't look southerly enough so its a little bit on a knife edge as far as i'm concerned but i don't think you have to go too far inland to be in line for some heavy showers

Thursday has winds coming in off the land but most of the showers should stay to the West of the Pennines. Anyways, i seen plenty of time in these low pressure sets up that fail to deliver, whether that is down to frontal cloud ruining convection or sea breezes developing during the day leaving us dry but we shall see and what happens.

I suspect today will start cloudy with the front slowly heading northwards but it should hopefully brigten up for a brief time before the convective clouds bubble up, whether any organised shower cells hits us is an uncertainty though.

I would love to be in the heart of England tomorrow, anyone living in the midlands are in a very good chance of seeing thundery showers, you be pretty "unlucky" if you do miss a shower.

Edited July 13, 2010 by Geordiesnow

[Lewis]

N-W Storm forecast issued for tomorrow 06z to Thursday 06z: http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

*Maybe revised tomorrow* but basing it on 18z GFS output and input from other models out this evening.

Hi Nick,

Makes interesting reading, thanks for the weather warning.

I think thats the first time in 3 years I have seen the slight colour over me. I thought with the surface pressure showing an ESE direction coastal areas in the Eastern parts (Eastern England, SE England, EA will avoid most of the showers/thunderstorms).

Unless of course these winds create a convergance zone.

Regards

Lewis

Also if anyone in my area fancies a chase, ill cover Hull and a 30-40 mile radius around (unless some biggies kick off outside the zone).

I can pick up, and drop off.

No need to chip in on petrol

[Nick F]

Hi Nick,

Makes interesting reading, thanks for the weather warning.

I think thats the first time in 3 years I have seen the slight colour over me. I thought with the surface pressure showing an ESE direction coastal areas in the Eastern parts (Eastern England, SE England, EA will avoid most of the showers/thunderstorms).

Unless of course these winds create a convergance zone.

Regards

Lewis

The winds near the surface don't steer the storms, it's the mid-level winds (i.e. 500mb) that mostly determine direction of travel and tomorrow these steering winds will be from the SW or SSW. Though supercell storms can deviate.

[Darren Bown]

Well estofex has a level 1 for most of England and Wales, due to a risk of tornadoes.

[Lewis]

The winds near the surface don't steer the storms, it's the mid-level winds (i.e. 500mb) that mostly determine direction of travel. Though supercell storms can deviate.

Ah thanks for the explenation Nick, much appreciated mate.

lewis

Well estofex has a level 1 for most of England and Wales, due to a risk of tornadoes.

If theres tornado's in this area or spouts, i'm normally the first to picture it and contact the local rag lmao.

I'll keep my eye out, i know the perfect spot around here for seeing spouts/funnels/tornado's

If the conditions are favourable, and it materializes, i shall be there

Heres Estofex;

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 14 Jul 2010 06:00 to Thu 15 Jul 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 13 Jul 2010 22:54

Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for England and Wales for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

The main macro-synoptic feature at mid levels will be a trough with axis over the Eastern Atlantic, with an embedded cold-core low centered over Ireland by Wednesday 12 UTC, moving slowly to northeast. Strong flow surrounds the fringes of the trough with windspeeds up to 40 m/s at 500 hPa level. A short wave trough will translate with this flow in the evening and early night hours over Northern France, Benelux countries towards Scandinavia. To east, a large ridge will stretch from the Central Mediterranean, across much of Central Europe into Northwestern Russia.

At the surface a centre of the deep low will reside close to or over the British Isles. Its trough will extend with the frontal system to the southeast and will accelerate quickly eastwards during the day. Mesoscale low will probably form within the frontal wave over Benelux and might become a significant factor in scenario. Ahead of the frontal system, high Theta-E airmass is advected at lower levels to northeast.

...England, Wales...

Behind the cold front, polar maritime airmass will advect over the region with low LCLs. Diurnall heating will lead to the destabilisation and scattered showers or low topped thunderstorms are possible. In fresh westerly flow, moderate wind shear values, 15-20 m/s of DLS might sustain some well organised storms. Combined with strong shear at lower levels ( over 10 m/s of LLS) an isolated tornado can not be ruled out and a low-end Level 1 is introduced for this region.

Edited July 13, 2010 by North Sea Breeze

[Evening thunder]

My rather un-scientific, but experience based forecast for tomorrow, put together on a rather rubbish map:

In all seriousness though, good luck to everyone for seeing something tomorrow.

If a storm did somehow turn up here earlier tomorrow, we have a lovely planned power outage from 8:45 - 12:45 tomorrow for maintenance on the electricity lines..yay.. so I wouldn't be able to track it anyway, or any other developments around the country.

And thats another level 3 from ESTOFEX for the near continent then!!

Edited July 13, 2010 by StormMad26

[Thundery wintry showers]

I feel any coastal areas will miss most of the showers today as the winds will be coming from ESE direction going by the pressure charts so that chart i feel will be fairly accurate.

Unfortunately winds don't look southerly enough so its a little bit on a knife edge as far as i'm concerned but i don't think you have to go too far inland to be in line for some heavy showers

I think the Tyne and Wear area will see a mostly dry sunny day up until late afternoon with shower clouds held out west for the reasons you give, but then the winds are set to veer round to a straight southerly by 6pm, so you should then see bands of sharp showers and scattered thunderstorms head slowly across.

[andy_leics22]

I'm just wishing for anything, just a few flashes and rumbles would be good, and after 5pm please so I'm out of work. I suppose if it comes during work and takes out the power that would be fine too!

Latest NMM charts not looking quite as nice for PPN tomorrow...

06z run, 15z tomorrow...

12z run, 15z tomorrow...

Also slightly reduced CAPE values but that's probably always going to happen this close to the event. Hoping those PPN charts aren't anything to worry about.

Looking forward to radar watching and reading the forums as much as possible tomorrow at work.

Hmmm those charts have a dry gap over Leicester, I hope that is true, I am planning to cycle down to a dog rescue center tomorrow and it's a good 4-5 mile bike ride so I don't want to get soaked!

[ZONE 51]

WOW! just read through last 5 or 6 pages..

[ZONE 51]

so exciting.. cant wait a day of weather action, hope i at least have a distance storm..it still be exciting anyway even if i miss out so i wont feel low coz i enjoy netweather and everyone posting what they got ,and radar n sat watching storms build up .

wonder what -Torro- is going to say..

[gpspete]

I have been up since 04:20 checking out the charts etc waiting for 06:00 weathersondes got 2 days off work as of today still cant decide when to set off in car,

looked at sat pics of france for clues,

still too early perhaps might head south to portsmouth then can head east along coast or back inland trouble is i have just finished a long line of early shifts so will be knackered by mid afternoon,

or stay at home wait too many options and timing issues still.

[Coast]

still too early perhaps might head south to portsmouth then can head east along coast or back inland trouble is i have just finished a long line of early shifts so will be knackered by mid afternoon,or stay at home wait too many options and timing issues still.

Further East Pete for the best action, East Sussex maybe, East Kent more likely?

[Paul Sherman]

This should give you an idea of just how hard this Chasing Malarky is Pete. You have Coasts Chase Target above and now I will give you my ideas, both areas miles apart in a Landmass the size of the Bottom Half of Kansas (Pmsl)

I still favour the East Midlands and Lincs for great chances of something severe, less traffic and lovely flat views which will make for great Pic opportunities, if you can get some sort of convergence around the Wash up towards Skeggy then chances of Funnels and Tornadoes increase as well.

Just my twopence worth but I would not have anywhere within 50 Miles of London on my mind today or any day to that matter.

Good Luck Mate - I will cover London at work with my Camera close by

Paul S

[gpspete]

just watched bbc southeast weather they showed the most showers to the west but well scattered anyway

i have just watched the 06:00 larkhill sonde flight live a dramatic change in humidity at aprox 5000m and its flight was in a north east drirection, storms will be quite fast moving will look at the official plot diagrams in a couple of hours especialy the 06:00 herstmonceux sonde.

so i think stay at home as there is now a bit of sunshine breaking out which will hopefuly increase convection,

as any storms breaking out south will quickly move northeast so i think i may not have to travel far perhaps to my favorite spot between aylesbury and high wycombe looking towards the chilterns then a short drive back to brill to watch any storms south of oxford

[Coast]

will look at the official plot diagrams in a couple of hours especialy the 06:00 herstmonceux sonde.

I'm clinging on to the hope of some imports later but I'm stuck at work in Mid Sussex and not expecting to see it overhead. If it really gets going somewhere in Sussex (not currently optimistic, but also waiting for the 'Herkymoo' Sounding) I'll need to find an excuse and get out of here!!! Suggestions for a blaging excuse welcome!!!

Projected for late afternoon:

[dogs32]

just starting to grow the first Storms around the Burgundy area on Sat24 with sferics

Edited July 14, 2010 by Pat Carter

[gpspete]

different forcaster on bbc differant chart lol they look a bit confused as to what is going to happen where.

my original thought of travelling south has now been discounted as i now suspect looking at wind charts at low levels the wind is from se & higher levels from sw plus other charts i now suspect i may be on the sw edge of any storm initiation there will almost definitly be storms today how widespread how many still up for grabs at the moment i must admit (paul) when i went to bed last night i did think of heading towards norwich a bit further south of your forecast area.

just noticed some sferics showing in central northern france there was a few to the nw of cornwal much earlier

Edited July 14, 2010 by gpspete

[dogs32]

she is a beaut already the one in France...growing fast...

cant see m uch of interest yet in the UK..though still early

small cell heading for Kent.....growing also./..no sferics at present

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=fr&sat=vis&type=loop

Edited July 14, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Harry]

I'm certainly very confused I have to say - have my camera with me so if the occasion calls for it I may be able to grab some snaps later...I think today is going to be a case of seeing a lot of convection (though that said, with a lot of cloud around and general merk it will reduce the views of any Cbs and associated features)...I might get some distant action, either to my N and W while at work, and maybe to my East this evening - can't help but feeling though today is not my day, despite being within the Estofex level 1 zone.

Also, two Level 3's from Estofex in the space of a few days, for the same region, plus another Estofex Level 2 in scandinavia, this time for Finland...interesting!

[Harry]

(South East post - if you're not interested then please ignore)

MetO invent does indicate the risk of some imported/home grown across the SE later in the day - this ties in with GFS as LI values are not forecast to reach positive values until the very early hours, with some CAPE albeit less significant, around until the same period...Invent seems to suggest that the supercell event over Benelux could trigger storms further West across E/SE England, presumably post-frontal or even out flow from the system...

So much potentially going on, I don't know where to look....about time though I say!!

[Paul]

For those of you who use the NMM model - don't be shocked if it looks a lot wetter on this morning's run than it did on previous runs - we've made a change to the scale as it was too top heavy with not enough detail at the lower end when it comes to hourly output , so we've shifted it all downwards a bit.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Agree with Paul S on places most favoured for some slightly low-end severe convective weather - also highlighted in Nick F's forecast. Best deep-layer vertical wind shear and low-level shear is progged over towards east Midlands, eastern parts of England, and further north towards north east England. Combined with several 100j/kg SBCAPE, the risk of organised convection and storms to hold severe characteristics is highest over these regions. Also think there's sufficient deep-layer shear across eastern parts of the west Midlands during the middle of the day for perhaps some organised cells, but overall the risk looks somewhat low.

thats none for me then, this area sucks anyway unless people want persistent steady rain

[dogs32]

a few heavy cells developing in West Wales at present..

one quick screen grab..courtesy of netweather radar

and current lightning

edit..latest radar shows Devon cell also increasing in rain fall rate

Edited July 14, 2010 by Pat Carter