General Storm Discussion Thread

[vortex_liam]

Its 10 - 15 mph winds here 40 cape and spiting, Looking good...

[andy_leics22]

Was mainly an east Kent affair last night it seems, though Essex seemed to get a few rumbles too. Just some moderate rain for a time earlier here:

OOHYA SOD!

Imagine if that lot over Europe had been 300 miles further West!!!

By the way, don't go putting 'Dutch Webcam' in Google eh?

That cracked me up

[ZONE 51]

would someone kindly post info on wednesdays/thrs set up for storms ,also whats instore for the se, as tech as u like , anytime this evening. thanks :-)

[vortex_liam]

starting to get abit overcast... black stormy overcast

[Marcus_surfer]

would someone kindly post info on wednesdays/thrs set up for storms ,also whats instore for the se, as tech as u like , anytime this evening. thanks :-)

Check out my post here (bottom of page); currently looking good for potential of heavy showers/thunderstorms

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/63084-convective-potential-forecast-and-in-depth-discussion-june-27th-onwards/page__st__51

Edited July 12, 2010 by Marcus_surfer

[Harry]

MetO pressure charts look quite intriguing for late Thursday into Friday...deepening LP system moves in from the Mid Atlantic, towards the NW Iberian Peninsula/bay of biscay region, looking like moving in from the S/SW late thursday and into the early hours of Friday. The orientation suggests that a relatively high amount of moisture will be drawn in by the depression, both from the bay of biscay, and as the LP system interacts with the HP system over the continent, the mediterranean too. The LP system over Spain could also throw in some drier air from the Spanish plateau, culminating in a fairly active frontal system.

It may be a far fetched bit of theory, but certainly there appears to be the ingredients for torrential, thundery rain in there for southern areas generally during the period mentioned above. Time will tell how it plays out but it could be interesting. GFS/ECMWF seem rather more reluctant for the secondary low to develop, keeping with one main area of LP...

Thoughts?

[SteveElbows]

Anything on the charts and models that would explain why the met regional forecasts have changed today - they were previously mentioning Wedneday thunder potential for the South West, Wales & West Midlands and those no longer mention thunder, the South East, East and East Midlands now mention thunder instead.

[Rob]

I think it's just lack of confience at this stage Steve, thundery outbreaks aren't the easiest to forecast.

[Harry]

I think it's just lack of confience at this stage Steve, thundery outbreaks aren't the easiest to forecast.

Especially for the MetO - without question their weakness in terms of forecasting

[Nick F]

Especially for the MetO - without question their weakness in terms of forecasting

I don't think they do too bad most the time, they predicted right some thundery activity early this morning across far SE England - albeit generally weak. You would have never have guessed the possibility based on GFS progs with no instability suggested on their numerical output. UKMO by far superior when it comes to modelling mesoscale weather such as thunderstorms, though even the organisation can fall down sometimes. Shame the public don't have access to their convective charts.

[chapmanslade]

Especially for the MetO - without question their weakness in terms of forecasting

Bit of a sweeping statement there - need data to back up tabloid comments like that I feel.

[lottiekent]

Just wanted to mention was woken around 3am by heavy rain and a passing storm, friends said they were woken around 5am too by the rain. Rain guage showed 14mm overnight. Heavy rain agin late morning and lunchtime for a brief spell giving another 6mm

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Bit of a sweeping statement there - need data to back up tabloid comments like that I feel.

I agree. I think they forecasted yesterday perfectly.

As an equivalent example, I am a big fan of snow showers off the north sea in winter, but I think you need to accept that sometimes the reality is not going to meet the ideal. And not start hopecasting instead. Not saying that Harry was in this case at all:) There are others however on this thread that do. .

And in terms of this parallel context, my own ideal, is just a snow cover and some cold air to keep it there would be fine.Plus I have learnt that my own home and lifestyle would suffer badly with being blocked in at home for days on end.

So, I think that the convective thread, being the equivalent of the winter 'will it snow' thread needs to keep a similar sense of proportion.. As much as it sometimes won't snow in winter like you want it to, then it won't thunder in the summer either. Also, if a Level 2/3 estofex forecast came to reality and one's own home was under threat from being flattened by a tornado/storm then I think that the appeal might be put in perspective!?. It is always exciting NIMBY sometimes. A trip to spend a weekend in the arctic in January might be fine for a snowlovers dream equivalent of a storm chase but do you want the 'chase' to actually be at home? Be careful what you wish for! Keep a grip basically. And at the end of the day, life and more important things go on besides the weather.

End of sermon...ignore if required.

Edited July 12, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[MR CB]

Looks like I'm about to get a moderate shower or downpour here on the south coast...they seem to be pepping up too ;-) Hopefully the next few days will give us heavier rain with added lights and bangs - fingers crossed we get some...

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think that's a rather patronising mis-representation of what most people in these convective threads are actually after. True, a number of people enjoy going on storm chases in the US plains where the convective storms are often genuinely destructive, but not many would want to have storms of that intensity hitting the UK.

Most of the posts I see wishing for storms like other places get focus more on continental Europe. I've been on numerous holidays to the near-Continent and seen the kind of electrical storms they get there- sometimes characterised by spectacular cumulonimbus cells, frequent lightning strikes, and sometimes rumbling on for a number of hours, sometimes accompanied by little or no rain, at other times accompanied by torrential deluges. But the storms on the near Continent are much less dangerous than their US counterparts. Yes, they cause some localised damage and a few fatalities here and there, but only a tiny fraction, for instance, of what occurred as a result of the August 2003 heatwave.

I am aware that many people in these threads wish for funnel clouds, but for example there's a big difference between a harmless funnel that doesn't reach the ground and a big destructive twister.

[cj114]

I've seen some very scary storms in my House on the coast near Gerona, the Gavarres Mountains make them whip up into a frenzy and often cause damage.

However, here at home I would settle for a little rain!! we have had nothing, not last night nor I suspect tonight either.

I'm sure I had a lawn once. It comes to something when a House in Spain's lawn looks better than the one here. lol

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think that's a rather patronising mis-representation of what most people in these convective threads are actually after. True, a number of people enjoy going on storm chases in the US plains where the convective storms are often genuinely destructive, but not many would want to have storms of that intensity hitting the UK.

Most of the posts I see wishing for storms like other places get focus more on continental Europe. I've been on numerous holidays to the near-Continent and seen the kind of electrical storms they get there- sometimes characterised by spectacular cumulonimbus cells, frequent lightning strikes, and sometimes rumbling on for a number of hours, sometimes accompanied by little or no rain, at other times accompanied by torrential deluges. But the storms on the near Continent are much less dangerous than their US counterparts. Yes, they cause some localised damage and a few fatalities here and there, but only a tiny fraction, for instance, of what occurred as a result of the August 2003 heatwave.

I am aware that many people in these threads wish for funnel clouds, but for example there's a big difference between a harmless funnel that doesn't reach the ground and a big destructive twister.

Uh-oh! - a TWS style 'wither'

It was not intended as patronising, please read between the lines in terms of my own journey through 'weather land'. If so then it would be known that I am expressing my view through what I have learnt in that time and the mistakes I have made myself in that time. Nothing wrong with marvelling at weather phenonena when they happen, funnely enough - that is what this forum is about:) . ..

But, it is easy ( at least in terms of my own experience) to get sucked into the type of hype and hope thing I was describing. It affects us all at sometime if one is not careful., It ismore revealing about your own response that you fail again to be able to read between the lines of seasoned posters. Especially average old baggages like me.... without taking a pinch of sal:D t .

Btw...Moderate (non funnel) deracho here atm - wetting the garden nicely

[staplehurst]

This rain across the SE seems several hours ahead of itself compared to the 12z NAE?

[ZONE 51]

cant feel bad about hoping for severe weather, yes its dangerous, but its the buzz the uplifting feeling that we all need ,some get it from tightrope walking and climbing skyscrapers, others from rally driving , and us on here top of the list is most likely weather.

[Stuart]

Well wed Still looking good this morning thu got a bit of a downgread but i still happy:lol: :)

[Coast]

Tomorrow shaping up for almost anywhere! (or possibly nowhere!!!)

[staplehurst]

This part of Kent does best from westerlies from the years I have been living here, so am quite hopeful for tomorrow

[DeepSnow]

Still looking good for tomorrow here!? I really hope we get something!

[Nick F]

This part of Kent does best from westerlies from the years I have been living here, so am quite hopeful for tomorrow

Steering winds over next few days (i.e. at 500mb) will be SW'erly, so normally areas S and SE of London and along S and SW coasts tend to end up dry due to short land fetch from the windward coast. However, given the unstable nature of the atmosphere tomorrow, I wouldn't rule out a heavy shower or t-storm almost anywhere.

Should be widespread potential for storms tomorrow, strongest deep layer shear near the SW'erly jet over far eastern England doesn't overlap the best potential instability further west over central and western areas ... however, up to 30 kts deep layer shear over eastern central areas may allow some storm organisation with a hail and gusty wind threat and with increasing low-level shear as winds back SE'erly with approach of trough from the SW - we could see one or two weak tornadoes and some funnel sightings. Though cannot see a severe threat unlike that likely over the near continent as always.

[Neilsouth]

BBC FORECAST 9.27

Wednesday , SOME BIG storms coming out of france Could pester parts of eastern kent :)