General Storm Discussion Thread

[dogs32]

will it or wont it?

Dont feel so hopefull at present....

BBC forecast here anyway no mention of storms now but just heavy showers with the odd crack of thunder

If I dont see a storm tomorrow Im banning myself from UK Storms and will reside into going chasing in Euro by myself

there is only so much my cameras can take of cobwebs

Edited July 13, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Guest FireStorm]

BBC FORECAST 9.27

Wednesday , SOME BIG storms coming out of france Could pester parts of eastern kent

East Kent seems to be getting the big stuff through 2010.. All that delicious snowfall you had, now most of the storms! Nevermind though, at least somewhere in Kent is getting the fun

[CarlLH44]

will it or wont it?

Dont feel so hopefull at present....

BBC forecast here anyway no mention of storms now but just heavy showers with the odd crack of thunder :lol:

If I dont see a storm tomorrow Im banning myself from UK Storms and will reside into going chasing in Euro by myself

there is only so much my cameras can take of cobwebs

I dont know what to think....what often happens when BBC forecasters predict "sharp showers" we get bangers...on the other hand when "humdingers" - yes Ms Kirkwood im referring to you - are predicted nothing significant happens.

Time will tell.

Edited July 13, 2010 by CarlLH44

[dogs32]

I dont know what to think....what often happens when BBC forecasters predict "sharp showers" we get bangers...on the other hand when "humdingers" - yes Ms Kirkwood im referring to you - are predicted nothing significant happens.

Time will tell.

the thing is mate...I dont wont sharp showers with 5 bolts of lightning....where have the MCS vanished to(French lot)

Where are the proper Storms vanished to...lol...

I know Im jumping the gun here a bit but Ive spent a fortune on equipment and holidays for storms...bliming Island :lol: :lol:

Im just frustrated...I feel better now

going euro chasing this year....had enough

Edited July 13, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Stuart]

pat it could all change before wed yet:)

Edited July 13, 2010 by Stuart

[dogs32]

pat it could all change before wed yet:)

good luck Stu...

Your probably have a better chance than me.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Still looking good for this area, just been looking at the high res NNM charts and CAPE over this area is over 1000 tomorrow afternoon. Also plenty of heavy showers on the NNM charts.

I can't remember the last time we had over 1000 CAPE up here, we normally have to make do with 100-200.

Looking forward to the convective forecast from Nick F, and also some MetO warnings in the morning hopefully.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember from my Tyneside days that these returning polar maritime setups with SSW winds were one of the most common sources of thundery activity. It would typically be dry and sunny in the morning and then bands of sharp showers would head in during the afternoon, often aligned N-S and tracking slowly east due to the westerly component to the airflow. They don't normally produce particularly big thunderstorms (Spanish plume type setups with winds slightly west of due south are the favourites for that) but those of you in the Tyne & Wear/Northumberland/Durham area stand a fair chance of seeing at least some electrical activity.

[Stuart]

yes here to metoffice saying some of the showers possibly thundery same go for thu and friday:)

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think Thursday is less likely to have any widespread thundery activity because the winds are projected to be very strong- so individual shower-cells won't spend much time over the landmass. It may well end up as a cloudy blustery sort of day for many with some moderate squally showers. Friday looks to have strong potential in SW areas at the moment.

[andymusic]

the thing is mate...I dont wont sharp showers with 5 bolts of lightning....where have the MCS vanished to(French lot)

Where are the proper Storms vanished to...lol...

I know Im jumping the gun here a bit but Ive spent a fortune on equipment and holidays for storms...bliming Island :lol:

Im just frustrated...I feel better now

going euro chasing this year....had enough

Sorry to hear that mate (about the equip)

Gotta remember though the reason for such a bad storm season so far this year is that we have generally had a very dry time so far in the UK - if you've had one storm so far this year - you're lucky - here in South Wales we're out for a duck - we might get lucky tomorrow - but I won't hold my breath!

[dogs32]

Sorry to hear that mate (about the equip)

Gotta remember though the reason for such a bad storm season so far this year is that we have generally had a very dry time so far in the UK - if you've had one storm so far this year - you're lucky - here in South Wales we're out for a duck - we might get lucky tomorrow - but I won't hold my breath!

yea but Andy for 2 yrs here its been virtually zero....5 bolts in 2 years and 3 farts...sorry thunder I mean..lol

Just been dawning on me how cheap it is to get on a ferry with a motor for the French or Dutch Storms...

The truth is you have to go to the storms than wait for them to get to you normally...

anyway good luck anyone who is fortunate to get a proper TS

and Im going for the North West and North East for the best options

Edited July 13, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Stormyking]

Wow where did that come from, just had a sudden downpour and stopped suddenly

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

I remember from my Tyneside days that these returning polar maritime setups with SSW winds were one of the most common sources of thundery activity. It would typically be dry and sunny in the morning and then bands of sharp showers would head in during the afternoon, often aligned N-S and tracking slowly east due to the westerly component to the airflow. They don't normally produce particularly big thunderstorms (Spanish plume type setups with winds slightly west of due south are the favourites for that) but those of you in the Tyne & Wear/Northumberland/Durham area stand a fair chance of seeing at least some electrical activity.

Not sure if you can remember Ian, but is this a similar setup to what brought the huge storm in the North East on 31st August 2005? I remember the storm coming from the south west reaching Tyne and Wear about 5pm.

Not expecting anything like that tomorrow but even something half as good would be very nice.

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/tornado-cloud-fails-to-send-top-sailors-into-a-spin-1.1040893

Nice Funnel Cloud from Yesterday in Scottie Land

[Harry]

Bit of a sweeping statement there - need data to back up tabloid comments like that I feel.

It's not that sweeping a statement chapmanslade - they have been pretty poor (IMO) over the past few years, and I think there are many on here who will back that up! There have been several instances when we humble enthusiasts have forseen a decent chance of storms way in advance of the MetO appearing to issue forecasts for them (if they forecast them at all, again, plenty of occasions where this is the case)...call me 'tabloid' if you will, but unlike snow events which IMO they have been superb in over the past few years especially, they are weak!

If you can find data which compares MetO forecasts to the actual eventuality then please feel free to post it! But as it stands, I believe the MetO are weak in forecasting convective weather (especially thunderstorms)

Edited July 13, 2010 by Harry

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not sure if you can remember Ian, but is this a similar setup to what brought the huge storm in the North East on 31st August 2005? I remember the storm coming from the south west reaching Tyne and Wear about 5pm.

Not expecting anything like that tomorrow but even something half as good would be very nice.

It wasn't- 31st August 2005 had a "Spanish plume" type of setup with a surge of warm southerlies from the continent ahead of an approaching Atlantic system:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050831.gif

I remember that day well. I'd just left Tyne and Wear for Leeds on the previous day, but it didn't matter because Leeds got thunderstorms of comparable intensity. I don't know what the progression was like in Tyneside, but in Leeds it had been sunny for most of the day, then slowly clouded over, then all of a sudden a large shelf cloud advanced from the south west and the thunderstorms commenced, with strikes every 5-10 seconds for a time, and some minor flash flooding.

Some of the thunderstorms of Julys 2007 and 2009 (which hold the record for the two most thundery months in Cleadon since I began recording in 1993) were caused by similar setups to tomorrow's though.

[andy_leics22]

What are the thoughts on any storms for the rest of the week my fellow weather nuts?

It's raining heavily here at the moment, no sign of anything stormy but it looks like there is some convection around tomorrow for many places.

[Ross B]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/tornado-cloud-fails-to-send-top-sailors-into-a-spin-1.1040893

Nice Funnel Cloud from Yesterday in Scottie Land

Very nice, thanks for posting that. Not related to that incident but I think I may have seen a funnel yesterday over the hills to the north of Livingston. I'm still unsure whether or not it was just scud as it was so far away!

Looking forward to the resk of the weeks slim storm chances before heading off to Florida on saturday

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

51% storm chance here for tomorrow, but i like to use my own formula to get a more accurate figure.

psc = predicted storm chance

asc = actual storm chance

(psc * 0) + 1 = asc

(51 * 0) + 1 = 1

So a 1% chance of storms tomorrow according to my reliable formula, fingers crossed

[SteveElbows]

What are the thoughts on any storms for the rest of the week my fellow weather nuts?

It's raining heavily here at the moment, no sign of anything stormy but it looks like there is some convection around tomorrow for many places.

Well Im still learning but tomorrow looks pretty good and I think we are maybe also in for a chance of something on Friday afternoon/evening for us in the midlands.

[Neilsouth]

KADDY BBC SOUTH EAST TODAY :

Supercell Storms in france , yes supercells!... Keep an eye on those as they could clip eastern kent , perhaps spreading further west :D

[willinkent]

KADDY BBC SOUTH EAST TODAY :

Supercell Storms in france , yes supercells!... Keep an eye on those as they could clip eastern kent , perhaps spreading further west :help:

Saw Kaddy too and was bit shocked! Hope we do get some thunderstorms, my garden could still do with another watering... could be a radar watch tomorrow!

[Supacell]

Sounds like that Kaddy likes the storms!

I am considering a storm chase tomorrow after work. Will await the mornings charts though, along with forecasts from ukasf, estofex and of course the netweather convective forecast.

Parts of the Humber have a 70% chance of storms tomorrow evening according to the 12z.

[Rob]

Looks like i'm missing out again!