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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

on hold until after WCUP

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wchris_uk Rookie

wchris_uk

Posted
  • Location: Deal Kent ASL 7.701 m / 25.267 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Tornadoes, Snow, and lovely summer Sun
  • Location: Deal Kent ASL 7.701 m / 25.267 feet
Posted

ahhh yes i forgot about that lol

on hold until after WCUP

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

Looks very quiet so far. I expect to see heavy rain kicking off in East Anglia during the early hours but it looks very poor at the moment. I expected to see something more than that at this point.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

"Patience is a virtue", this is not a gimmick! lol

Virtually the whole of France and Benelux is under a Level 1 - GFS and other models suggesting late initiation - the fingers of cloud pushing East is the start of the change - wait for it to fire as the LP wraps up further...11pm, BOOM! Might not be BOOM here, but the first signs should be there.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

"Patience is a virtue", this is not a gimmick! lol

Virtually the whole of France and Benelux is under a Level 1 - GFS and other models suggesting late initiation - the fingers of cloud pushing East is the start of the change - wait for it to fire as the LP wraps up further...11pm, BOOM! Might not be BOOM here, but the first signs should be there.

Yes, heavy rain is widely forecast. If an area is affected you'd expect to get at least 10mm in 2 hours. Whether or not it becomes electrifimicated TM is something else entirely. Of course, entirely possible, but, I reckon, it relies on timing as discussed earlier today.

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willinkent Newbie

willinkent

Posted
  • Location: Faverham, Kent
  • Location: Faverham, Kent
Posted

I hope it goes bing bang boom.... need it after this warmth.... really hoping for a Spanish style initiation of thunderstorms that sudden massive growth of cloud as on sat 24..... especially after Spain winning world cup!.... looking a bit :good: though

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

Is that a strike off the South West coast?

Are you hoping for Thunder and lightning in Gloucester?

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Are you hoping for Thunder and lightning in Gloucester?

I wouldn't mainly the SE possibly some southern areas but mainly rain if that around here.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

i expected some sparks over in france by now..but as im reading on here the mix is starting and should soon see something bloom over france..i expect now for some activity arriving on s-coast by early hrs

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Lewis Newbie

Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Posted

No storms for this neck of the wood, warmer air now pushed aside, the cold front coming from the south has stabalized the atmosphere over the past 24 hours, some heavy frontal rain possible, but certainly nothing convective.

Regards

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

I wouldn't mainly the SE possibly some southern areas but mainly rain if that around here.

Anoo, thats why I asked her :good:

Highly unlikely anywhere apart from the South Coast, East Anglia and South East will see anything thundery.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Anoo, thats why I asked her :good:

Highly unlikely anywhere apart from the South Coast, East Anglia and South East will see anything thundery.

I 100% agree with you there maybe something for the IOW time will tell.

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

I 100% agree with you there maybe something for the IOW time will tell.

I hope we get some decent rain here, been like the sahara desert here the past 2 weeks.

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r6 steve Newbie

r6 steve

Posted
  • Location: Gosport,Hampshire
  • Location: Gosport,Hampshire
Posted (edited)

well nothing here for the solent so far but time will tell!!! not got

my hopes up as these things never go to plan

Edited by r6 steve
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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

Looking at the models I still think the far East of England will see thunder overnight. The best chance of widespread storm activity looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday. Especially in the West.

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tara303 Newbie

tara303

Posted
  • Location: Templeglantine, west County Limerick, Ireland
  • Location: Templeglantine, west County Limerick, Ireland
Posted

is wednesday looking better for storms for surrey - ive been roasting in the sun all week at hampton court and thought we might get a storm tonight... only a few rumbles here and there so far this year, luckily day off weds so looking closely to see how it pans out...

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Models haven't looked good at all for some thunderstorms to develop across the south-east - quite a few factors not conducive to the build up of deep convection and electrical activity. Main factor being real lack of any instability - 12z forecast Skew-T for Kent and east Sussex, for example, show MUCAPE values of just above 100j/kg during the early hours, with also a saturated profile right through to the upper levels - no real cold pool aloft given average mid-level lapse rates at best across the far south-east.

Therefore, main risk to me looks like heavy rainfall, with perhaps the odd strike or two.

Changes a-foot weather09! AcCas and generally Ac streaming in from the S now...was outside early for a cig in just shorts and it's not fresh/cool feeling in the slightest, if anything warming slightly.

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staplehurst Community Regular

staplehurst

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted (edited)

Changes a-foot weather09! AcCas and generally Ac streaming in from the S now...was outside early for a cig in just shorts and it's not fresh/cool feeling in the slightest, if anything warming slightly.

Also worth noting eastern parts of Ireland have seen a few sferics this evening - not forecast. GFS has the SE down for 30% risk of storms - same as E Ireland. It's not a complete write-off until 4am IMO. Waiting patiently :)

Edited by staplehurst
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Very warm and muggy im sure some more humid air is moving in from france thats were our storms are set to develop , its about 20c around london area, and Ac-Cas moving from the south on what looks like quite a brisk middle level air flow .

Edited by nimbilus
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coldfingers Enthusiast

coldfingers

Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
Posted (edited)

Very warm and muggy im sure some more humid air is moving in from france thats were our storms are set to develop , its about 20c around london area, and Ac-Cas moving from the south on what looks like quite a brisk middle level air flow .

18C here on the coast at the moment. The strong breeze we have had all day has died down to a very light F2. 74% humidity and we badly need rain but I am not hopeful.

Edited by coldfingers
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staplehurst Community Regular

staplehurst

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted

Shower over NeilSouth's house by the looks of things, locally heavy and moving NNE. Little blob over Nern France just south of Rouen. Plenty of moths and storm flies outside tonight.

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staplehurst Community Regular

staplehurst

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted (edited)

Also, where is that rain in the SW coming from? It's not on any of the models and appears to be moving northwards into the SW peninsula

Edit: ah! a sferic in Essex

and another from that cell leaving Calais

Edited by staplehurst
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staplehurst Community Regular

staplehurst

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted (edited)

Wow cells exploded in a N-S line between Eastbourne and Le Havre! :)

More sferics from the Calais cell and a new one just off the coast of Thanet

Edited by staplehurst
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davehowe Newbie

davehowe

Posted
  • Location: Margate, UK.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder snow.
  • Location: Margate, UK.
Posted

Watching nw radar with interest here in Margate with eye on windows as well.

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