General Storm Discussion Thread

[tcc]

odd spot of rain, but ground still dry!

[Coast]

Did we get lots of lightning? , i didn't hear anything in the night... i can see lots of rain though

Well not lots, but I saw a few flashes out to sea between 1.45 and 2.15 am this morning - hardly a storm though!

[Nick F]

Was mainly an east Kent affair last night it seems, though Essex seemed to get a few rumbles too. Just some moderate rain for a time earlier here:

[Callie]

No storms seen or heard but very heavy rain here in Eastbourne!!

[Stuart]

well wed not looking to bad for me right now hope it dont downgread form now on

[Neilsouth]

:wallbash:

[Essexgooner]

Nothing really to report here in Rochford, Essex storm wise, just its been raining constent since 7am, so the good 3 or so hours of rain so far is doing the gardens and golf courses good

:wallbash:

I noticed that too, how fun would that be in the middle of that lot, lol

[Methuselah]

A stonking great ZILCH again here!

[DeepSnow]

I know its a few days away yet, but anyone know what the chances are for wednesday? netweather forecast been showing a 45-56% chance of storms here for wednesday for the last few days! plus metcheck have cape at783 j/kg and an LI of -4! anything looking likely wednesday for south/southeast wales?

[Stormyking]

Wednesday does look interesting and theres even some cape over us my fingers are crossed , been very poor year for storms here so far had only 1 decent storm so far which was end of march but im still keeping positive.

[Coast]

You know how Paul was saying about getting a ferry to France for a spot of chasing? Well how about getting one to Holland today?? They may have missed out on the World Cup but a level 3 is a rare thing from ESTOFEX!!!!

Forecast Update

Valid: Mon 12 Jul 2010 08:00 to Tue 13 Jul 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 11 Jul 2010 23:09

Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 3 for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, large hail and excessive precipitation was issued for eastern Netherlands, northwestern and northern Germany, and southwestern Denmark.

A level 2 was issued for an area surrounding the level 2 area fro the same weather phenomena.

A level 1 was issued for severe wind gusts, large hail, and excessive precipitation surrounding the level 2 area, including SWern Sweden, SE Norway, much of Germany, the western Alps, northern Italy and northern, central and eastern France.

A level 1 was issued for the central and eastern Balkans and western parts of the Ukraine mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the original Storm Forecast for a general discussion of the weather pattern.

DISCUSSION

Benelux, northwestern and northern Germany, western Denmark...

A strong bowing MCS has formed over central France overnight.This system is expected to move quickly NNEward. As the boundary layer warms ahead of this system, the chances of strong and extreme wind gusts will increase. Per 00 and 06 UTC soundings about 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE should become available i this air-mass.

Moreover, a few elevated supercells have formed over the Benelux. As forcing by the upper trough increases, coverage of these storms will also increase. With strong helicity being in place and LCL heights being low, storms that become surface-based will have a risk of tornadoes, that may be strong. The threat will be highest roughly in a 100 km broad zone to the northwest of a line from Maastricht to Dortmund to Kiel, where surface winds are from the ENE and boundary layer temperatures moderate.

Both for the disctinct risk of extreme wind gusts with the bow echo, and for the risk of tornadoes an upgrade to level 3 was decided. Moreover, extreme precipitation and large hail will be possible.

It is expected that the bow echo will move into Denmark during the second half of the afternoon and during the evening. Probably the threat of extreme wind gusts will persist at least until the mid-evening, when the system moves into an area of less instability.

[Evening thunder]

:wallbash:

That's a huge area of thunderstorms!

Can see all the thunderstorm reports on the French map on xcweather, there producing strong winds too with Bierset in Belgium reporting 43 to 58mph... oh what I'd give to be, or live there

Edit: it's just updated and doesn't look quite so bad as before

That ESTOFEX map rubs it in!:lol: Wish I lived on the continent sometimes..

Edited July 12, 2010 by StormMad26

[Stuart]

but i dont think i see any storms here on wed and thu becuse the metoffice just saying rain for my area

Cloudy wet and windy on Wednesday. Feeling colder. Staying cloudy and murky with further outbreaks of rain on Thursday

[Coast]

Sorry to rub it in guys. All I can suggest is you watch a few webcams and weep!!!

By the way, don't go putting 'Dutch Webcam' in Google eh?

http://www.knmi.nl/webcam/

http://128.121.162.36/webcam.htm

http://webcam.idefix.net/

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Brugge/webcams/latest

[staplehurst]

Well after last night, I feel a little privileged to see a flash and hear a rumble, albeit one, considering I am quite far inland and the rest of the strikes remained firmly around the east Kent coast (as usual!). So far today we've collected 11.3mm here.

[r6 steve]

Well that was a non entity night just 10 mins of heavy rain,which you wouldnt even think happend and

for the cooler conditions? it is very warm and very very humid, best hope maybe wednesday or friday

for any electrical stuff though tomorrow we are supposed have heavy showers so might get a rumble?

you never know but wednesday looks like the most hopefull day

[kold weather]

Just a small amout of rain here, typically the whole lot set-up a small bit to the east and we got a small amount of rain around 7.00am from a moderate shower.

That MCS over France/low countries this morning was immense and its now becoming more linear with another strong line over France right now.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

but i dont think i see any storms here on wed and thu becuse the metoffice just saying rain for my area

Cloudy wet and windy on Wednesday. Feeling colder. Staying cloudy and murky with further outbreaks of rain on Thursday

Still plenty of hope Stuart, especially for Wednesday. Latest GFS still looking good for most of England, Wales and Southern Scotland on Wednesday with the risk transferring further north on Thursday.

Plenty of time for change yet, but I'm staying hopeful.

Met Office forecast sounds a little more positive for this area than yours, but no mention of thunder yet...

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Generally unsettled with showers or longer outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, and it is also likely to be windy at times.

If the charts are similar this time tomorrow the Met Office should be mentioning thundery showers in their forecasts for many of us.

[Neilsouth]

Just had a real downpour here and now parts of canterbury are flooded , not houses but roads..... Some roads are barely driveable , came down within an hr :)

[staplehurst]

It might be cooler today but it's certainly not less humid. Whenever it gets a little brighter it feels very warm and the air just feels saturated. Everything is soaked wet and there are so many different types of bugs flying about.

Edited July 12, 2010 by staplehurst

[DeepSnow]

Gotta say, just looked at both metcheck and netweather and it looks like its been an upgrade for here with higher cape and lower LI valuse for wednesday, just hope it stays roughly like this now and we do get something on wednesday!!! not gunna get excited yet tho as still plenty of time for change and like normal wouldn't be suprised if the risk moves east or something!!

[sbiggs]

cant believe it. once again everything misses here!!

the rain band actually parted as it approached, and then joined up again after it had past.

mother natures got a grudge again me i think.

[Stormyking]

Hey all

had a unexpected spell of light rain earlier but the rain spots were quite big and it feels humid, I am looking forward to Wednesday even if we don't see anything it will be nice to see some convection

[Wilxy]

At the moment wedesday looking very good for Devon and Cornwall along with Wales and Northern England.

[DeepSnow]

This is what the Meto saying for wales

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Bright or sunny spells are on the cards, but showers are also expected to develop, these heavy and perhaps thundery from time to time.

Updated: 0400 on Mon 12 Jul 2010

Lets hope we can get the first storm of the year for me an many others! Wednesday happens to be my parents anniversary so im not sure they will be pleased with any storms tho lol