General Storm Discussion Thread

[VillagePlank]

There looks to be plenty of vertical motion towards the SE just ahead of the upper trough moving in from the west, SW'erly upper winds will be strongest here too as the jet cranks up on the forward side of the trough. Poor lapse rates may inhibit strong convection needed for storms if vertical lift is not strong enough though. Bit pessimistic about much happening othern than some heavy rain - but models, especially GFS, never handle instability too well in these situations.

Oh - hadn't looked at the jet, just the downgrades from 50hPa hour vertical motion.

Agree re: heavy rain and (very) sparse storms, and it will be interesting as the surface low moves north through France, interacting with the trough that's for sure. Possible bow-line formation as it passes East, North East, perhaps.

But hey, clutching at straws, and all that.

Edited July 11, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Harry]

There looks to be plenty of vertical motion towards the SE just ahead of the upper trough moving in from the west, SW'erly upper winds will be strongest here too as the low-level jet cranks up on the forward side of the trough. Poor lapse rates may inhibit strong convection needed for storms if vertical lift is not strong enough though. Bit pessimistic about much happening other than some heavy rain - but models, especially GFS, never handle instability too well in these situations.

Did notice some Cu developing earlier, indication the desire aloft for some convection to get going - alas (well, just look outside ) it has come to nothing. Lets just hope we're in for a nice surprise...get the impression from your tone Nick that you are perhaps a bit more hopeful/optimistic than you're letting on

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

Dont know about you guys but MetO Invent gives me reason to think this could be an exciting night, even if we don't see that much!!

Edited July 11, 2010 by Harry

[VillagePlank]

Dont know about you guys but MetO Invent gives me reason to think this could be an exciting night, even if we don't see that much!!

Yes, that band of showers at approx 1am is the front feataure moving through interacting with a surface low coming up from France. All depends on how active it is, I reckon. Not even a sniff expected until 10pm though at the earliest.

Edited July 11, 2010 by VillagePlank

[staplehurst]

I was under the impression that any storms would develop over the far northern part of France and/or over the Channel late this evening (ie 10pm onwards) moving across Kent and Sussex. I'm not worried at all at the lack of anything developing thus far.

[VillagePlank]

I was under the impression that any storms would develop over the far northern part of France and/or over the Channel late this evening (ie 10pm onwards) moving across Kent and Sussex. I'm not worried at all at the lack of anything developing thus far.

That's close to what I think. However, there is a trough moving through, which I missed, and when it interacts with the French surface low, and if all the layers can interact properly we might get more than (very) heavy showers.

Edited July 11, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Nick F]

Agree re: heavy rain and (very) sparse storms, and it will be interesting as the surface low moves north through France, interacting with the trough that's for sure. Possible bow-line formation as it passes East, North East, perhaps.

Think the frontal wave low's forecast to move NNE over Kent and out across E Anglia, according to GFS and UKMO. Though there is shallow thermal lows over the continent too.

[VillagePlank]

Think the frontal wave low's forecast to move NNE over Kent and out across E Anglia, according to GFS and UKMO. Though there is shallow thermal lows over the continent too.

Always good to have you about Nick I missed the surface trough feature, and it will be interesting to see if the timing supposed by the vorticity charts leaving France later, and the trough interact. Of course, if it's vigorous enough it should tap into the vertical motion at 700hPa. I reckon timing needs to be perfect though (not too long after dark) otherwise it's rain, rain, and more rain. Which, of course, we need in these parts.

[Harry]

Think the frontal wave low's forecast to move NNE over Kent and out across E Anglia, according to GFS and UKMO. Though there is shallow thermal lows over the continent too.

Pardon my ignorance, but is that a good thing? I got lost when discussions revolve around upper/lower troughs/lows etc

[VillagePlank]

Pardon my ignorance, but is that a good thing? I got lost when discussions revolve around upper/lower troughs/lows etc

Yeah - it's a good thing! My fear is that they won't collide at the same time over our heads, as it were, in which case the rain will be prolonged, and it will be only rain.

Sorry about discussion. I'm not quite up to discussing with the big boys in the techno thread

Edited July 11, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Harry]

Yeah - it's a good thing!

Thanks VP - a somewhat subdued and perhaps anticipatory

[Coast]

Well the sky is clouding over down here, the garden could desperately do with the rain and I could desperately do with a thunderstorm!

[VillagePlank]

Well the sky is clouding over down here, the garden could desperately do with the rain and I could desperately do with a thunderstorm!

You might just catch them as they form and become active to your North East .... just kidding. Radar watching from hereon in until the 18z.

[Coast]

That baby is heading for Eastbourne, you'll be as out of luck as we are here in Poole :lol:

:o

[Neilsouth]

The sky is full of altocumulus , good sign yes?

[staplehurst]

The sky is full of altocumulus , good sign yes?

Same here - signs of increasing instability aloft. Though I'm not particularly hopeful that it will storm here tonight,but am very much looking forward to the rain and less pollen/heat

[VillagePlank]

The sky is full of altocumulus , good sign yes?

Yup

Edited July 11, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Coast]

The sky is full of altocumulus , good sign yes?

Possibly, it may just be an indication of the front moving through but I like your optimism Neil!!!!

A few sferics showing on the French / Belgian border at the moment, I'm nt going to look again until after the fooite and after dark!

[Neilsouth]

Possibly, it may just be an indication of the front moving through but I like your optimism Neil!!!!

lol i currently have a 10% otpimism risk :lol:

[SteveElbows]

Well I have little idea what I am talking about but I think I see stuff just starting to appear in the channel on the precipitation radar.

Im in the midlands and was dreaming of thunder yesterday, so I read all the regional met office forecasts carefully, and I sadly notice that today they mention thunder much less than they did yesterday (both for thunder tonight/tomorrow in the East and for the West on Wednesday).

[ZONE 51]

the first interesting night for ages... at least we have something to track..i wont even mind if i have distance display..(AS long as it coming my way) 0-: really tho a distant light show would be great

[SteveElbows]

Just looked at the met forecasts again and the thunder word is still mentioned for the South East tonight/tomorrow, though they are hedging their bets. No mention of thunder for the East and East Midlands anymore.

The possibility of thunder has also made it back into their forecasts for Wednesday/Thursday for the South West, Wales & West Midlands.

I know I should take the met forecasts with a large pinch of salt, but as Im not knowledgeable enough to spot thunderstorm potential on charts etc I am reliant on these forecasts and the posts of people here.

And Im certainly hungry for a thunderstorm, especially this week as Im on holiday from work and can stay up late. Ive seen one pretty small thunderstorm going by just to my east so far this year.

I dont suppose there is anywhere on the net that I can see some data from thunderstorms I remember from quite a number of years ago are there? I have a few memories of storms from the mid nineties that Id love to learn more about whilst waiting impatiently for some real action this year.

[Harry]

Slightly less exciting from MetO invent IMO, but still something looking like developing.

[staplehurst]

12z GFS indicating things not really developing across the Channel until 11pm at the earliest, potential for storms to move over Kent/Sussex between 11pm - 5am, before the risk of thunder vanishes.

[ZONE 51]

couple of cells south of IOW r they thundery?

[wchris_uk]

seems very quite in here. any one know anything or have u all given it legs to the coast hahaha