The 3 Counties And East Anglia Spring Weather Discussion

[jennyjane]

I have just come back form the sale.When I left the house at about 11.30 it was clear blue skies damp on the ground cold but not bitterly so and I thought the forecast had to be wrong.

Having just come back the return journey was with that luminous white/yellow cloud a biting wind and the temperature must have dropped quite a bit.

I wasn't confident this morning that the forecast was right but if it continues as it is and there is liquid falling from the sky tonight I now think it might well snow.

Just shows how the weather changes suddenly

[chilly milly]

Currently 3c here and hasn't changed much since midday. as the clouds come over, wouldn't this keep the temperatures up? I'm not sure what is going to happen, but at 3c it isn't going to be snow and I can't see the temp lowering with increased cloud cover.

[Timmytour]

Sky were showing midday temps of 10C over London yesterday and even the BBC were showing 7C

Sky also taked about there being snow which could cause havoc in the "rush hour"? Struck me as being a strange way to talk about a bank holiday!

But the fact is if they give the possibility of snow and there is rain instead, they will not get media criticism. If they went for rain and it snowed, then the Daily Mail would be up in arms!

So for me they are playing safe. I would expect the snow to be limited to the Midlands north, and any snow we get to be of a very wet variety that does not stick around.

[PurpleButterfly]

I'm not to sure about a snow event here too. The temp has been 3c all day. With dew point -0c. I popped to the shops this afternoon and could here the melted snow gushing down the drains! Its thawing very quick out there.

current temp: 3c

Dew point: -0c

Wind chill: -1c

[weatherwise]

Experience has told members that this will be rain. The latest TV forecasts which run off the NAE will also confirm this later. A lot more rain on the +18 (was +24) chart than earlier http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/12/27/basis12/ukuk/prty/10122806_2712.gif

Also temps too high (for accumulations) http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/12/27/basis12/ukuk/tmp2/10122806_2712.gif - coupled with the fact that NAE forecast temps have also been about 2c too low - i.e 1C predicted today but has been 3C.

the 48 hr precip totals indicates a lot of rain (10mm+ for some) http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/12/27/basis12/ukuk/rsum/10122912_2712.gif

So those who still have snow get your last few looks at it before it gets washed away. :smiliz46:

Currently 3c here and hasn't changed much since midday. as the clouds come over, wouldn't this keep the temperatures up? I'm not sure what is going to happen, but at 3c it isn't going to be snow and I can't see the temp lowering with increased cloud cover.

Agree 100% - the only way the temp would fall is if the precipitation is very heavy.

[geminitracie]

Currently 3c here and hasn't changed much since midday. as the clouds come over, wouldn't this keep the temperatures up? I'm not sure what is going to happen, but at 3c it isn't going to be snow and I can't see the temp lowering with increased cloud cover.

Hi milly i too have had readings of 3 max today but over the last 45 mins my reading has dropped to 2.2, are you reading about the same now ???

[Country Boy]

you can all take a break now the next big event will be around the 7th of January...are we ready for it this time ????

[WheresTheSnow]

you can all take a break now the next big event will be around the 7th of January...are we ready for it this time ????

If you mean is everybody ready for it in general then, NO, im sure lots of people will be stuck on motorways, lots of roads will be unpassable and the gritters will start trying to grit after its snowed...I think its too warm for snow tonight, im still optimistic though, lets see.

[saint]

Dew points etc... Are more important than air temps in the kind of situation we'll see tonight. As snow can fall with air temps over +2c/+3c. Also, the ground is still very cold. But, I don't think we should expect snow. Just keep an eye on the radar.

[Weather Boy]

Hmmm, the Met seem extremely confident in putting out severe weather warnings etc but we all know that snow is very difficult to forecast.

There's only a certain amount that you can gain from monitoring surface temps, but it is 1.6C here and falling gradually so overnight snow is not that difficult to imagine.

People make comments about the Met being very media focus and warning if there is a chance of snow (even if they don't think there will be snow) but in my experience they tend to say "risk of" if they think that it probably won't be snow but want to cover themselves. Therefore, I think that they are making a sincere prediction and they have been excellent during the cold spell generally. On the other hand I can see the argument that they do seem to be overdoing it.

Perhaps the reality is a couple of hours of snow with no or very limited disruption i.e somewhere between the two extremes!

[Mrsf16]

Beeb are forecasting Sleet for Peterborough, that worst kind of weather I think!! Pretends to be snow but is really just mush! lol xxx

[Jason T]

Evening everyone,hope you all had a good xmas. Well not quite sure about this snow business later, One thing certain wont be much for awhile after tonight tomorrow anyway bit of radar watching i guess.

[bluearmy]

nnm looks pretty good for north norfolk. not a bad model when it comes to picking out where it will snow as opposed to rain which is what the rest of us can expect.

[Tom D]

2.2c here currently with a maximum today of 3.8c which is about the warmest it's been since 17th December. Not expecting any snow tonight, it will likely be wet snow or sleet at best or rain otherwise and it'll be a treat to not have to slide around on the pavements any more. Still hoping we come in with a sub-zero CET and I'm also sure that winter is not over, January and February will probably bring more cold.

[Bolton67]

Hmmm, the Met seem extremely confident in putting out severe weather warnings etc but we all know that snow is very difficult to forecast.

Sorry, but i'm going to give the MetO a bash tonight, they have been utterly clueless today, Northamptonshire has gone from Orange to Green to Yellow in the space of 12 hours

thats says to me they have not got a clue whats going to happen overnight.

they have gone from 12cm of snow to ziltch, then showing a warning for 4cm of snow, then going to nothing again.

make your own mind up.

[Dan_Quest]

2.4 0c here in MK and.............RAINING, as expected

[Timmytour]

Hmmm, the Met seem extremely confident in putting out severe weather warnings etc but we all know that snow is very difficult to forecast.

There's only a certain amount that you can gain from monitoring surface temps, but it is 1.6C here and falling gradually so overnight snow is not that difficult to imagine.

People make comments about the Met being very media focus and warning if there is a chance of snow (even if they don't think there will be snow) but in my experience they tend to say "risk of" if they think that it probably won't be snow but want to cover themselves. Therefore, I think that they are making a sincere prediction and they have been excellent during the cold spell generally. On the other hand I can see the argument that they do seem to be overdoing it.

Perhaps the reality is a couple of hours of snow with no or very limited disruption i.e somewhere between the two extremes!

Hi Weather boy....nice to see another Royston resident on here, though I'm currently with the kids and so in Broxbourne.

I think we could wake up in the morning not knowing whether it's snowed or not....I can't see it being disruptive south of the Midlands....just wet snow if any.

I think the temps will pick up when it comes....and I've certainly noticed the BBC are not as intent about surrounding London with snow as they were on their graphics....the rain graphics are definitely marching north!

[Iceni]

I am totally fed up with where I live. We seem to get precipitation but only when it's rain, never if it's snow… I just don't understand it as we're on some of the highest ground in EA.

Light rain which will get rid of the remains of the 2 cm of snow we had a few weeks ago with nothing since.

[80sWeather]

same here mate it was like a desert during the november easterly, and the snow that came up from the south 2 weeks ago on the saturday stopped 5 miles south of here ,of all the places ive lived this is the worst for snow lol

[Dan_Quest]

I am totally fed up with where I live. We seem to get precipitation but only when it's rain, never if it's snow… I just don't understand it as we're on some of the highest ground in EA.

Light rain which will get rid of the remains of the 2 cm of snow we had a few weeks ago with nothing since.

Rain and Snow are very different beasts............

Essentially, it is very easy for it to rain here in the UK, i.e. jet stream, Atlantic flow, upper air temp, dew points, etc. etc. etc

but

For it to Snow a lot of specific atmospheric conditions need to be perfect, not just related to elevation.

As you can see on the current radar http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ there is a huge mass of precip moving across the UK with huge amounts of energy coming off the Atlantic, the DP's, Cold Block, Upper air temps would need to be a lot colder for this to be an ALL snow event.

If you remember, over the last few weeks, most of our snow has come from showers from the east/ north east/ north or from low pressure systems moving across through the 'cold pool'

In all instances, the area of precipitation was relatively small compared with 'Rain' fronts which blast in from the Atlantic

Forecasting rain is fairly easy and a fairly safe bet from the models but doing the same for snow is very 'Hit and Miss' with smaller areas of decaying showers or frontal precipitation

Still, with the layman's science out of the way, whether or not it snow in your back yard is always frustrating.......since a kid I've cursed so many in surrounding areas to my location who always seem to get 'MORE SNOW'

Edited December 27, 2010 by Dan Aldridge

[Timmytour]

well...here in Broxbourne I have no need to seek out a lamp-post. I can hear that it's rain falling and quite heavily!

[Dan_Quest]

Temp has stayed static at 2.4c, dewpoint is close -2c. for last hour, started raining 45 mins ago.

So it look like the issue is with the 850s (only -1c) and thickness - 540 I believe.

The ground temp will still be close to freezing, as much of it is still snow/ice covered, so treacherous!!

[PurpleButterfly]

Well ive just had a look at my lamp post and its raining with little tiny bits of snow thrown in there!

Current temp: 2c

Dew point: -1c

Wind chill: -3c

[Vince]

sad end to a superb cold spell ,as the heavy rain (24 hours ago was suppose to be disruptive snow) belts down

[Iceni]

For it to Snow a lot of specific atmospheric conditions need to be perfect, not just related to elevation.

As you can see on the current radar http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ there is a huge mass of precip moving across the UK with huge amounts of energy coming off the Atlantic, the DP's, Cold Block, Upper air temps would need to be a lot colder for this to be an ALL snow event.

If you remember, over the last few weeks, most of our snow has come from showers from the east/ north east/ north or from low pressure systems moving across through the 'cold pool'

In all instances, the area of precipitation was relatively small compared with 'Rain' fronts which blast in from the Atlantic

Yes but currently the dewpoints here are 0C, the temperature's 1.1C and it snowed perfectly easily in 2005 — last year we got 4 cm from the 17th December and nothing else - during all January this year when everyone was enjoying several inches of the stuff.

This year we had about 2 cm weeks ago, we managed to hang on to it until now because it was so cold, in fact today was the fist day above freezing for the past two weeks. There's just been no precipitation around, unless it starts raining of course — we always get that.