North West England - Slightly Less Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

[damianslaw]

As I anticipated thankfully we have been spared any troublesome flooding. The heavy rain over SW Scotland last night petered out somewhat as it reached these parts, but meant rivers peaked last night.

Today the River Kent was already lower this morning than last night and is now dropping quite markedly.

Still it has been a very wet 30 hours. What we need now is a good dry spell, oh look mother nature is going to do just that...

[HotCuppa]

Sorry but the models are flipping all over the place at T100 hours. So please don't post crap about February and March, you're not going to be right, nor is anyone else.

Clearly you haven't understood one thing I wrote have you, coz if you had you won't be talking about the models as you think you understand them...GFS. ECM, Fax etc. I am talking about the NAO and AMO.

As for FI its just that, but to say the models are flipping out is just plain ridiculous. They have been rather accurate as far as I am concerned over the past week or two at 3 and 4 day ranges. I usually never look beyond that. If your looking to FI and trying to draw conclusions from it, your going to be of the opinion the models don't know what they are doing. Thats the nature of long range forecasts..nothing you can do about it.

For some one who proclaimed rather loudly they had a deep understanding of meteorology you have shown precious little of it.

I am not having a go at you, just repeating back at you the silly posts you make at times.

Edited January 16, 2011 by HotCuppa

[Backtrack]

Clearly you haven't understood one thing I wrote have you, coz if you had you won't be talking about the models as you think you understand them...GFS. ECM, Fax etc. I am talking about the NAO and AMO.

As for FI its just that, but to say the models are flipping out is just plain ridiculous. They have been rather accurate as far as I am concerned over the past week or two at 3 and 4 day ranges. I usually never look beyond that. If your looking to FI and trying to draw conclusions from it, your going to be of the opinion the models don't know what they are doing. Thats the nature of long range forecasts..nothing you can do about it.

For some one who proclaimed rather loudly they had a deep understanding of meteorology you have shown precious little of it.

I am not having a go at you, just repeating back at you the silly posts you make at times.

I know enough, but I have never said I was an expert.

I'm enough to know that if you have even been following them the last week, they have been up and down, varying between cold, deep cold, mild and Atlantic domination....

A model is a model, the weather will do what it wants to do.

When have I ever proclaimed 'loudly' that I am an expert at this? I also don't see how it was a silly post... during these 'modern winters' it's VERY hard to forecast a week ahead never mind a month!

[johnwirral]

I would bet that those who had 1C and below during December will keep the same trend of mildness, broken only by

a few minor cold spells...

Joe laminate floor on accuweather originally wrote.

"For ALL the areas that had temps more than 1C below normal in December, the possible exception Scandinavia, YES. Sometimes patterns like what we went through are like slingshots, you pull the slingshot back then it lets go and flies the other way"

He's now Backtracked quote "HOORAY.. I DO SEE SOME COLD AIR COMING BACK" and is going for cold. so may be all is not lost....

Edited January 17, 2011 by johnwirral

[swainclubber]

I know enough, but I have never said I was an expert.

I'm enough to know that if you have even been following them the last week, they have been up and down, varying between cold, deep cold, mild and Atlantic domination....

A model is a model, the weather will do what it wants to do.

When have I ever proclaimed 'loudly' that I am an expert at this? I also don't see how it was a silly post... during these 'modern winters' it's VERY hard to forecast a week ahead never mind a month!

When you initially had a rant and the forum got closed and you resigned forever you said how "vast" your meteorlogical knowledge was. i do recall having a good old chortle at that one.Back the weather, looks like being cool and calm under high pressure for a fair bit, im glad to see the back of the rain now

Edited January 17, 2011 by swainclubber

[AderynCoch]

Clear blue skies and not as mild today. Maxima today should be about average.

[waz20000]

Let the snow roll in please

[chris78]

what a beautiful day.....lovely blue skies.....even felt some heat in the sun early afternoon...wonderful!

Edited January 17, 2011 by chris78

[Backtrack]

When you initially had a rant and the forum got closed and you resigned forever you said how "vast" your meteorlogical knowledge was. i do recall having a good old chortle at that one.Back the weather, looks like being cool and calm under high pressure for a fair bit, im glad to see the back of the rain now

Vast has many different meanings.

I am an amateur but even I know that no one can accurately predict 1-2 months ahead. It's common sense.

[Lancashire Lass]

Really foggy tonight. visibility is very poor, I could barely see infront of me whilst out with the dogs and I could see it swirling around the torch.

[Interitus]

But I anticipate this is going to be a brief blip and next week we will be talking frosts and snow potential again..

NOT!

[poison1]

Weather Underground actually reporting that there is snow grains falling at SHAP as I type.Well actually Mealds,Mauburn is the given location.Even still.

And I know theyre only snow grains so wont ammount to anything before anyone says anything.Just thought I'd point it out.

[SP1986]

I do doubt snow grains, if is an automated weather station it might be fog.

I find the title of this thread a little bizarre, I'd say the 12-13C, 5-6C above average and the minimas of 10C, again around 6C above average were a bit more than slightly less cold!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Well that was a shock to the system. Just been the shop and all the cars are white from a hard frost. Dunno what the temps are but must be at least -2 out there. Been a bit foggy last night aswell. A few strange things goin on aswell. Our garden path was bone dry last night and now half is wet presumably from the fog and half is bone dry. That 528 DAM line came over us last night but it really is amazing how the temps drop like a stone when they do. 13 degrees night before last down to -2 last night. :cc_confused:

Edited January 18, 2011 by saintpeter

[Chris.R]

No frost here, temp only 3c. Un surprising, we're usually the warmest place in the NW. After the warmer temps lately I'm now looking forward to spring. I know it's only January but I think I had my fair shair of snow in december. Some nice sunny days this week to look forward to at least.

[Backtrack]

2.7C with a patchy frost.

Only one decent snow event here. I want more snow before Winter is out.

Weather Underground actually reporting that there is snow grains falling at SHAP as I type.Well actually Mealds,Mauburn is the given location.Even still.

And I know theyre only snow grains so wont ammount to anything before anyone says anything.Just thought I'd point it out.

Its been reporting that since about 9pm last night.

Obviously an error.

[HotCuppa]

It's nice to see things cooling down somewhat back to normal values. And the rains have gone from those affected by it.

BT, I wasn't having a go at you and you need to understand that..nor did I proclaim your a weather expert. I was a little flippant

only because you made light of what I was trying to tell you as crap.

What we are looking for is trends, and no matter what the models say, if there is too much warm air around us, the only thing

we are going to experience during any marginal cold spots is likely the kind of rain we saw late last week. The key is looking at

things that do influence the temperatures such as the NAO and possibly to a lesser extent the AMO.

Not saying the NAO cannot go back into negative territory before this winter is out., heck the last time I looked at it, it was just into

low positive numbers.

I'd certainly like to see blocking over n and c Canada breaking..and much colder temps returning to our shores with a similar

vengeance that December had...now I don't know if thats possible or not, but there is some rumblings that Feb and possibly

March are going to be firmly in positive NAO territory which won't help us one bit. Mild much and rain..more akin to horrible

autumnal weather.

We will have cold spells again, just how cold tho is another thing and whether we can get the kind we had back last December,

require other mechanisms to fall into place..one of them is for canada to loose its blocking. If it doesn't happen all those

LP's are just going to fire right across the Atlantic aimed right at us. Haven't seen the Canadian charts in around 3 to 4 days..but

it looked to me like that blocking is going nowhere soon..the weather will do what it will I guess.

Fingers crossed for much colder / snowier weather to return to our shores in the coming weeks.

[SP1986]

No frost here, was never likely to be, 3.5C the minimum with minimum dewpoint of 1.8C so naturally frost free.. sunny now though at 5.4C

[poison1]

Temp here dropped to -1.6c overnight.Everything back to a nice crisp white this morning.Grass,cars.roofs etc.Even the road was glistening white this morning.Probably due to the large ammount of moisture about last night.patches of mist/fog on and off through the night/early this morning.Definitely prefer Cold/White to Mild/Green

[Thunder Snow]

Hot/Back you really need to settle this once and for all, and could i suggest you do it via pm or email and not the forum, Cheers

I prefer action weather snow or rain lol. I can't stand it being cold and dry lol, however its nice to see a return to frosts .

Edited January 18, 2011 by Thunder Snow

[Lancashire Lass]

A low of -0.2C at 7am this morning. The thick fog stayed with us all night and slowly lifted this morning.

Current temp 6.3C

[Backtrack]

It's nice to see things cooling down somewhat back to normal values. And the rains have gone from those affected by it.

BT, I wasn't having a go at you and you need to understand that..nor did I proclaim your a weather expert. I was a little flippant

only because you made light of what I was trying to tell you as crap.

What we are looking for is trends, and no matter what the models say, if there is too much warm air around us, the only thing

we are going to experience during any marginal cold spots is likely the kind of rain we saw late last week. The key is looking at

things that do influence the temperatures such as the NAO and possibly to a lesser extent the AMO.

Not saying the NAO cannot go back into negative territory before this winter is out., heck the last time I looked at it, it was just into

low positive numbers.

I'd certainly like to see blocking over n and c Canada breaking..and much colder temps returning to our shores with a similar

vengeance that December had...now I don't know if thats possible or not, but there is some rumblings that Feb and possibly

March are going to be firmly in positive NAO territory which won't help us one bit. Mild much and rain..more akin to horrible

autumnal weather.

We will have cold spells again, just how cold tho is another thing and whether we can get the kind we had back last December,

require other mechanisms to fall into place..one of them is for canada to loose its blocking. If it doesn't happen all those

LP's are just going to fire right across the Atlantic aimed right at us. Haven't seen the Canadian charts in around 3 to 4 days..but

it looked to me like that blocking is going nowhere soon..the weather will do what it will I guess.

Fingers crossed for much colder / snowier weather to return to our shores in the coming weeks.

I don't look at the models for Canada.

One thing I did notice though, was how close a call this upcoming cooler spell was.

If that high pressure would shift Westwards another 100 miles, it would be game on for the UK to have a decent Northerly.

As to my understanding... January is going to be a write off. All eyes forward to February. I'm sure we will see a return to colder conditions at some point. But as you say we need some sort of blocking to keep these Atlantic fronts and lows at bay.

At the minute though, let's just enjoy the sunshine. Looks like we will have a week or so of that... So hopefully a fresher feel to things with a return of overnight frosts.......for now.

[HotCuppa]

Surprisingly mild for periods this afternoon, hit 10C for a couple of hours before sinking down to an average of 7C. Had a few light showers off and on before the clouds departed and ended the daylight hours with clear skies.

Temp currently 4.2C DP 2.5C

Suspect a low of -1C tonight similar to last night, Right now can certainly feel the nip in the air

It's pretty much very important that we need to see Canadian blocking removed..because if it's not, all thats going to happen

is front after front is going to spin off the east coast of Canada and slap us with mild murk and rain rain (like we've just had)

High pressure to the west likely won't last long as further LP's will shove it further east and we are back to cyclonic gloom.

Lets see what happens during the next couple of days over Canada.

Edited January 18, 2011 by HotCuppa

[damianslaw]

Mmmm the upcoming days hardly spell mild weather looming, quite the contrary we are entering a cold spell of weather. BBC predicting widespread maxes of 2-3 degrees at best on Thurs and Fri and with widespread mins below 0 degrees and I can see some spots clost to -5 degrees in the countryside, who needs a deep seated northerly or easterly. High pressure sat over the country at this time of year can easily deliver some decent cold, yes nothing exceptional but cold all the same. We may not have any snow on the horizon or ice days, but the upcoming synoptics I would happily take over the atlantic conveyor belt anyday as last week proved how dire it is when the atlantic does take a hold.

I am rejoicing at the cold, frosty, dry and bright/sunny outlook with little wind. Here in the NW we look best positioned to see the clearest conditions in the coming days.

[Backtrack]

Mmmm the upcoming days hardly spell mild weather looming, quite the contrary we are entering a cold spell of weather. BBC predicting widespread maxes of 2-3 degrees at best on Thurs and Fri and with widespread mins below 0 degrees and I can see some spots clost to -5 degrees in the countryside, who needs a deep seated northerly or easterly. High pressure sat over the country at this time of year can easily deliver some decent cold, yes nothing exceptional but cold all the same. We may not have any snow on the horizon or ice days, but the upcoming synoptics I would happily take over the atlantic conveyor belt anyday as last week proved how dire it is when the atlantic does take a hold.

I am rejoicing at the cold, frosty, dry and bright/sunny outlook with little wind. Here in the NW we look best positioned to see the clearest conditions in the coming days.

Dianne on the local forecast said tomorrow would be the last sunny day. I was like 'say whaaaaaattt?' lies.

Anyway, mad around here. Rained in the last hour, that has frozen solid on 3 or 4 cars, while the rest just remain wet.

The air temperature is only 3.3C.

Cloud coming in from the West too, some possible sleet or hail showers no doubt.