North West England - Slightly Less Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

[damianslaw]

If your looking for "deep cold" like we had in late Nov and into Dec it is now looking less likely looking at the models, it's a shame BUT we have to think how good it were back in those months, the longer this goes on as it is at the moment it's letting the sun grow stronger by the day and by Feb it's actually getting quite high in the sky so anything that falls will melt much quicker than in Dec.

Have a look at this it tells you the height of the Sun during each day of the year by looking at "Altitude" under Solar Noon on the right of the page: Sun strength, sunrise and sunset times UK cities

By mid Feb as you can see it's as high as 24 degrees, compare that with just 13 in Dec, about 6 degrees is a huge difference in the Sun's ability to warm the Earth's surface. So we are slowly running out of time for any sustained cold and lasting snow cover.

Many seem to worry about snow lasting through the day when we reach February. I don't know why, the sun is not that strong in Feb, and provided there is a 1 inch cover it will stay on the ground, the rate of thaw depends on levels of humidity, snow doesn't tend to melt in dry air unless temps are above 4 degrees, but it will melt rapidly under saturated air with temps of 2 degrees- even in Dec and Jan, doesn't matter what the sun is doing. In this respect snow can sustain on the ground right through till the end of Feb.

Granted a cm or two will likely melt by the middle of Feb in strong sunshine compared to Dec.

As recently as April 2008 we experienced a day with snow cover lasting the whole day.

Back to current conditions, well another magnificently sunny blue sky freezing day here. I think it was an ice day, yesterday nearly was. Last night I suspect temps got down to -6 degrees, we had a very thick white frost coating everything this morning, rime hoar frost and it looked like it had snowed. We didn't manage such conditions in the freeze of December, so in some respects current conditions are even better than then in terms of magical wintry touch.

Tonight will see some cloud spill in which will prevent equivalently low temps, and we don't have any fog. However, we will see an air frost still by dawn, just might be a bit cloudier and murkier and tomorrow doesn't look like being half as sunny and bright as today.

After a lengthy dull dark period, the last few days have been brilliant, and the past two extra special - I love this kind of weather its just a pity we have no snow on the ground or even on the fells.

[SNOW GO]

Does anybody know why the Met Office/BBC have on there graphics Cheshire down for snow early tommorow??

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_weather.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/4274?area=CW11

[Backtrack]

Does anybody know why the Met Office/BBC have on there graphics Cheshire down for snow early tommorow??

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

http://news.bbc.co.u.../4274?area=CW11

Unsure.

Might do, who knows?

[abbaman]

Does anybody know why the Met Office/BBC have on there graphics Cheshire down for snow early tommorow??

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

http://news.bbc.co.u.../4274?area=CW11

Same ast derbyshire in the east midlands.

******** to them it was 3am at frist for derbyshire now it's 6am so there must be grimelens in there computers.

Edited January 21, 2011 by abbaman

[Jay Lad]

Many seem to worry about snow lasting through the day when we reach February. I don't know why, the sun is not that strong in Feb, and provided there is a 1 inch cover it will stay on the ground, the rate of thaw depends on levels of humidity, snow doesn't tend to melt in dry air unless temps are above 4 degrees, but it will melt rapidly under saturated air with temps of 2 degrees- even in Dec and Jan, doesn't matter what the sun is doing. In this respect snow can sustain on the ground right through till the end of Feb.

Granted a cm or two will likely melt by the middle of Feb in strong sunshine compared to Dec.

As recently as April 2008 we experienced a day with snow cover lasting the whole day.

Back to current conditions, well another magnificently sunny blue sky freezing day here. I think it was an ice day, yesterday nearly was. Last night I suspect temps got down to -6 degrees, we had a very thick white frost coating everything this morning, rime hoar frost and it looked like it had snowed. We didn't manage such conditions in the freeze of December, so in some respects current conditions are even better than then in terms of magical wintry touch.

Tonight will see some cloud spill in which will prevent equivalently low temps, and we don't have any fog. However, we will see an air frost still by dawn, just might be a bit cloudier and murkier and tomorrow doesn't look like being half as sunny and bright as today.

After a lengthy dull dark period, the last few days have been brilliant, and the past two extra special - I love this kind of weather its just a pity we have no snow on the ground or even on the fells.

Snow would last a day in April yes, you can also get slight sun burn in April from direct sunlight, but if it were Dec it'll be more likely last up to 2 weeks dependent on tempertaure as we've seen during this winter. The sun has literally no affect in Dec, same with early and mid Jan and all of Nov.

Snow would last a few days in Feb but only dependant on temperature, in 1963 the only reason it lasted longer on the ground in Feb was it snowed on nearly every day in that month so it was bound to stick around after a cm or 2 a day even if the sun was gaining alot of strength compared to in early winter.

There is also more areas in later winter and into spring where the sun can get to as it is higher in the sky, already it's getting into the corners of my garden where it didn't in Dec, infact I felt a bit of warmth from it today which I haven't felt since about late October.

Edited January 21, 2011 by Jay Lad

[damianslaw]

Snow would last a day in April yes, you can also get slight sun burn in April from direct sunlight, but if it were Dec it'll be more likely last up to 2 weeks dependent on tempertaure as we've seen during this winter. The sun has literally no affect in Dec, same with early and mid Jan and all of Nov.

Snow would last a few days in Feb but only dependant on temperature, in 1963 the only reason it lasted longer on the ground in Feb was it snowed on nearly every day in that month so it was bound to stick around after a cm or 2 a day even if the sun was gaining alot of strength compared to in early winter.

There is also more areas in later winter and into spring where the sun can get to as it is higher in the sky, already it's getting into the corners of my garden where it didn't in Dec, infact I felt a bit of warmth from it today which I haven't felt since about late October.

Snow melting in sunshine is called sublimation and the rate it melts depends on the depth of snow. With no top ups in the depths of winter provided the air is dry and temps below 4 degrees, you are only likely to loose about 2cms a day, this rate increases markedly under saturated air, indeed this is when rapid thaws occur. In Feb the stronger sun will dissapate the snow at a quicker rate than in Dec and Jan, but only if the temps are above 4 degrees and the air is not saturated, the rate otherwise won't be that much greater than in Dec and Jan. Hence a 5-6 inch cover would probably take a week to shift in feb under dry air with temps remaining below 4 degrees, obviously if temps struggle to get much above freezing ice on top will prevent the snow from melting at all. Many places in mid feb 1991 saw up to 2 week snow cover under these type of conditions.

A snowfall in Feb followed by dull cloudy skies and again dry air with temps below 4 degrees would take just as long a time to shift indeed as an equivalent type of spell in Nov, Dec , Jan and even March.

As for the sun feeling as strong now as it does in late October - mmm not sure on that one, it isn't usually until the middle of feb I begin to feel any heat from the sun. Right now it is firmly in weak winter mode, today for instance the sun to me felt just as cold in the middle of the afternoon as it did first thing this morning. In late October temps average around the 10-14 degree mark so a day with sunshine and those sorts of temps would feel alot warmer than the sun at this time of year.

[Jay Lad]

Snow melting in sunshine is called sublimation and the rate it melts depends on the depth of snow. With no top ups in the depths of winter provided the air is dry and temps below 4 degrees, you are only likely to loose about 2cms a day, this rate increases markedly under saturated air, indeed this is when rapid thaws occur. In Feb the stronger sun will dissapate the snow at a quicker rate than in Dec and Jan, but only if the temps are above 4 degrees and the air is not saturated, the rate otherwise won't be that much greater than in Dec and Jan. Hence a 5-6 inch cover would probably take a week to shift in feb under dry air with temps remaining below 4 degrees, obviously if temps struggle to get much above freezing ice on top will prevent the snow from melting at all. Many places in mid feb 1991 saw up to 2 week snow cover under these type of conditions.

A snowfall in Feb followed by dull cloudy skies and again dry air with temps below 4 degrees would take just as long a time to shift indeed as an equivalent type of spell in Nov, Dec , Jan and even March.

As for the sun feeling as strong now as it does in late October - mmm not sure on that one, it isn't usually until the middle of feb I begin to feel any heat from the sun. Right now it is firmly in weak winter mode, today for instance the sun to me felt just as cold in the middle of the afternoon as it did first thing this morning. In late October temps average around the 10-14 degree mark so a day with sunshine and those sorts of temps would feel alot warmer than the sun at this time of year.

Your quite a bit further North which makes the sun less strong at all times of the year than here.

[Liam J]

Another bitterly cold morning here temp is currently -4.7c the temp yet again will struggle to get above 0c in the still weak sun, 0.4c the high yesterday 0.0c the day before back to having thr heating through the day.

Edited January 22, 2011 by james12

[les1234]

very thick freezing fog all the way along the m58 on my way to work max temp 0 lowest temp -4 .

[Lancashire Lass]

Dense freezing fog here also. Temp -1.6C I'd be amazed if this shifts today.

[SNOW GO]

Another cold start here in South Cheshire with some very thick mist and fog overnight and early this morning only just gradually clearing with according to my weather station a light sleet shower at around 6am currently temps are around 0-2c so feeling chilly out and about.

[Rainy]

We've a lot of winter ahead yet. Up here in the NW hills, farming tradition is that Candlemas Day, Feb 2nd ,is the halfway point and you should have half the winter fodder left in store.

That particular day now seems to have been taken over by the American tradition of Groundhog Day, whereby the groundhog peeps out of his burrow and goes back down to sleep if the weather is uninviting.

Anyway back to the UK.

We've always had good falls of snow in March. Reliably so. Often the more memorable falls.

The harshest and snowiest March I can recall since living up here was March 1969. Very cold and with very strong east winds drifting the snow in the early part of the month before the 16th, when we had a baby born at home Couldn't tell whether it was snowing or drifting. White outs for some days and huge drifts filled the roads. Snow ploughs and snow blowers were out and kept a track open. Helicopter on stand by, but Doc and midwife got up here by car.

The intermittent thaw brought a heavy load of ice to the overhead electric cables and made them sag. Tree branches broke.

Snow patches lingered on the fells till the month end when there was a lovely sunny warmth by Easter.

[itsnowjoke]

chilly day today frost covered ground again but none on the roof current temp 2c

birds water dish outside is also frozen solid.

no wind

cloudy.

boring.

weather.

bring

on

the

snow

lol

Edited January 22, 2011 by wheresmysnow

[itsnowjoke]

would be nice if this happens

[HotCuppa]

Been very cloudy in the west this morning and same this afternoon..even had light dizzle for a period of time this morning. Dry and very cloudy now tho. Temps 5.2C normal for time of year.

No wind tho.

Id rather see something better than that chart above..if that panned out it would be extremely light and lots of places would miss it.

Edited January 22, 2011 by HotCuppa

[HotCuppa]

Many seem to worry about snow lasting through the day when we reach February. I don't know why, the sun is not that strong in Feb, and provided there is a 1 inch cover it will stay on the ground, the rate of thaw depends on levels of humidity, snow doesn't tend to melt in dry air unless temps are above 4 degrees, but it will melt rapidly under saturated air with temps of 2 degrees- even in Dec and Jan, doesn't matter what the sun is doing. In this respect snow can sustain on the ground right through till the end of Feb.

Granted a cm or two will likely melt by the middle of Feb in strong sunshine compared to Dec.

As recently as April 2008 we experienced a day with snow cover lasting the whole day.

Back to current conditions, well another magnificently sunny blue sky freezing day here. I think it was an ice day, yesterday nearly was. Last night I suspect temps got down to -6 degrees, we had a very thick white frost coating everything this morning, rime hoar frost and it looked like it had snowed. We didn't manage such conditions in the freeze of December, so in some respects current conditions are even better than then in terms of magical wintry touch.

Tonight will see some cloud spill in which will prevent equivalently low temps, and we don't have any fog. However, we will see an air frost still by dawn, just might be a bit cloudier and murkier and tomorrow doesn't look like being half as sunny and bright as today.

After a lengthy dull dark period, the last few days have been brilliant, and the past two extra special - I love this kind of weather its just a pity we have no snow on the ground or even on the fells.

Damian if your talking IMBY then fair enough.

Its very cloudy now, as been since early this morning IMBY. Even with some drizzle. Max temp 5.2C hardly cold by any definition here. Remained very much above freezing last night, and tonight I expect more in the way of light drizzle rain.

Lol you can keep this Bartlet high, its as bad as the monster warm temps through Jan

[itsnowjoke]

Been very cloudy in the west this morning and same this afternoon..even had light dizzle for a period of time this morning. Dry and very cloudy now tho. Temps 5.2C normal for time of year.

No wind tho.

Id rather see something better than that chart above..if that panned out it would be extremely light and lots of places would miss it.

greedy

[SP1986]

Many people are disappointed that we're not cold enough, after the December cold spell you'd think some people would be happy, I guess not..

Right now I would welcome a long spell of mild weather, mainly because for personal reasons, prolonged cold is detrimental.

[abbaman]

Many people are disappointed that we're not cold enough, after the December cold spell you'd think some people would be happy, I guess not..

Right now I would welcome a long spell of mild weather, mainly because for personal reasons, prolonged cold is detrimental.

I agree with you thats what I want forseeable futre. And for the next 30 years.

[Chris.R]

Agree SP I had my fair sheir of snow in december, a foot of snow will probably not be equaled here for a long time. I'm now hoping for an early warm spring with clear days and thundery showers. Now When was the last time we saw that?

[abbaman]

Agree SP I had my fair sheir of snow in december, a foot of snow will probably not be equaled here for a long time. I'm now hoping for an early warm spring with clear days and thundery showers. Now When was the last time we saw that?

I'm all up for a warm spring with april showers with the snow gone all feb and march. Never to return for 50 years with any snow.

[HotCuppa]

Agree SP I had my fair sheir of snow in december, a foot of snow will probably not be equaled here for a long time. I'm now hoping for an early warm spring with clear days and thundery showers. Now When was the last time we saw that?

Thing is, if the scandi high happens will it produce enough deep cold air to produce anything to the west of the country? At the moment unless we see really cold temps in the north atlantic , it does look as if rain could be a very big feature again either next week or the week after.

I'm all up for a warm spring with april showers with the snow gone all feb and march. Never to return for 50 years with any snow.

why are you posting in the NW thread you don't want snow, when you should be saying that in the midlands thread? lol

greedy

Not so much as greedy as realistic. The problem is that chart is showing very very light snow affecting a lot of the region. Typically in that kind of setup, low levels tend to get very little if anything of the white stuff, while those on higher ground get a pasting.

If it was 2/3mm an hour then it would be very interesting to say the least. There is now some sort of agreement on GFS going for scandi high and snow..but we'll see.

Edited January 22, 2011 by HotCuppa

[Weather-history]

it does look as if rain could be a very big feature again either next week or the week after.

Little evidence of this

[abbaman]

Thing is, if the scandi high happens will it produce enough deep cold air to produce anything to the west of the country? At the moment unless we see really cold temps in the north atlantic , it does look as if rain could be a very big feature again either next week or the week after.

why are you posting in the NW thread you don't want snow, when you should be saying that in the midlands thread? lol

Not so much as greedy as realistic. The problem is that chart is showing very very light snow affecting a lot of the region. Typically in that kind of setup, low levels tend to get very little if anything of the white stuff, while those on higher ground get a pasting.

If it was 2/3mm an hour then it would be very interesting to say the least. There is now some sort of agreement on GFS going for scandi high and snow..but we'll see.

I have a business in the north west that relies on clear roads. As we need to get to places of the beaten track as sometimes one of bands in my bussines needed last dec to get to a place of the beaten track in the lake Discrit for a concert and the road was blocked.

[damianslaw]

Another cold day but unlike yesterday much more cloud about. It dawned frosty again, temps at freezing at 10am still. I wnet walking in the fells near Mardale and it was a lovely scene on the way up with trees coated in rime frost. However, when I arrived temps had climed to 2 degrees. On return all frost had gone when I got back here with temp maxing at just below 4 degrees. Right now we don't have a frost yet unlike the last four nights where by 7pm we had an air frost.

Tomorrow looks a very similiar day to today but with more cloud and tonight will probably only get as low as freezing perhaps -1 degrees. Still this is a cold spell we are in, and apart from a slight warm up early next week, by middle of the week frosts will be back. It is also a very dry spell, 6 days now with no rain, and I don't see much more than very light drizzle in the coming days.