North West England - Slightly Less Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

[lukemc]

Hi,

I have noticed on the model thread that some people think that the weather that we are having at the moment - HP dominated in winter is boring or a "borefest" or "snoozefest" - I for one disagree as HP in winter can bring freezing fog like it did last night and the night before and I seem to like freezing fog almost as much as snow in the winter - it can keep tempeatures very cold especially during the daytime and icedays are possible where freezing fog persists. Not to mention the rime frost and hoar frost that can be spectacular under freezing fog conditions. And it can be almost as distruptive as snow especially to air travel - noticed that Liverpool Airport had a few flights diverted elsewhere last night with a Runway Visual Range (RVR) visability of 100m for a lot of last night. The main thing that fustrates me about the model thread is that if severe cold and snow is not on the models, some posters, probably only a minority but enough to make my blood boil, seem to think that it is going to be either mild, boring or poor for the forseeable future.

Anyway onto the possibilty of snow in the next few weeks, does anyone think we could see some snow in the next few weeks? Yes I here from a lot of posters that the models show low pressure both to the north and south of us keeping the High Pressure over us but I do remember looking at the charts for late January 1996 which seemed to show HP over us - was that similar to what we have now? but then a few weeks later we had the battleground situation between the very cold air to the east and the mild Atlantic air that brought that big snowstorm on the 5th and 6th February 1996 - does anyone think we could see a similar evolution into this February - a "battleground" scenario that could deliver big time for our region? I would like to get a similar snowstorm this February because I think it is nice to have snowfall spread thoughout the winter and not concentrated in a single month and it would be nice for me to get lying snow in all 3 winter months - December, January and February - even though January this month for me so far has only had 1 day of lying snow.

What I don't seem to understand however is how the synoptics that are conductive to snow and cold in December can suddenly just disappear as we move later in the winter - yes I knew it happened in winter such as 1981-82 and 1996-97 but we just has the coldest December for over 100 years so I can't see how synoptics conductive to snow can just vanish without trace - I do think we will see some more snowfall from February into March - can anyone explain?

Luke

[damianslaw]

Hi,

I have noticed on the model thread that some people think that the weather that we are having at the moment - HP dominated in winter is boring or a "borefest" or "snoozefest" - I for one disagree as HP in winter can bring freezing fog like it did last night and the night before and I seem to like freezing fog almost as much as snow in the winter - it can keep tempeatures very cold especially during the daytime and icedays are possible where freezing fog persists. Not to mention the rime frost and hoar frost that can be spectacular under freezing fog conditions. And it can be almost as distruptive as snow especially to air travel - noticed that Liverpool Airport had a few flights diverted elsewhere last night with a Runway Visual Range (RVR) visability of 100m for a lot of last night. The main thing that fustrates me about the model thread is that if severe cold and snow is not on the models, some posters, probably only a minority but enough to make my blood boil, seem to think that it is going to be either mild, boring or poor for the forseeable future.

Anyway onto the possibilty of snow in the next few weeks, does anyone think we could see some snow in the next few weeks? Yes I here from a lot of posters that the models show low pressure both to the north and south of us keeping the High Pressure over us but I do remember looking at the charts for late January 1996 which seemed to show HP over us - was that similar to what we have now? but then a few weeks later we had the battleground situation between the very cold air to the east and the mild Atlantic air that brought that big snowstorm on the 5th and 6th February 1996 - does anyone think we could see a similar evolution into this February - a "battleground" scenario that could deliver big time for our region? I would like to get a similar snowstorm this February because I think it is nice to have snowfall spread thoughout the winter and not concentrated in a single month and it would be nice for me to get lying snow in all 3 winter months - December, January and February - even though January this month for me so far has only had 1 day of lying snow.

What I don't seem to understand however is how the synoptics that are conductive to snow and cold in December can suddenly just disappear as we move later in the winter - yes I knew it happened in winter such as 1981-82 and 1996-97 but we just has the coldest December for over 100 years so I can't see how synoptics conductive to snow can just vanish without trace - I do think we will see some more snowfall from February into March - can anyone explain?

Luke

I suggest you read some of the posts in the la nina thread explaining how in strong la nina years as we are having now we tend to see the coldest conditions earlier in the winter with the polar vortex then setting up shop in a position less favourable to northern blocking, this has happened this year.

It doesn't look like we are likely to see any snow for the remainder of the month - blocking highs by there nature produce very dry weather with little instability.

Longer term - we will need a significant change in upstream pattern if we are to see some further snowy weather. The polar vortex needs to split and anchor into scandinavia. Some are saying a possible stratospheric warming event may occur which could disrupt the PV in February and bring in much colder weather from the east increasing chances of snow.

It is difficult to call at this stage what the remainder of winter may bring. I have a feeling we will some further wintry weather before the end of Feb, hopefully earlier in feb than later.I also think March and April will provide many surprised with some very cold air descending over the country.

As for comparisons with Jan 96, that was a very different set up, we had high pressure extending westwards from west russia and bringing in much colder uppers to the country. At the same time the atlantic was very weak, with neutral ENSO conditions and a very negative AO and NAO, when the front arrived on the 5/6 Feb it was forced to undercut the high pressure and became very sluggish as a result stalling in situ and producing the very long lasting snow. I remember Feb 96 very well, it was a predominantly cold month, though it did become milder and wetter for a short time in the middle, this was replaced with very cold north easterlies and further snow with the end of the month finishing on a dry cold settled theme, this lasted through much of March with further snow around 11-13th and very cold weather later in the month with raw easterlies. I would love to have another Feb 96, but the start to this Feb will be a far cry synoptically speaking from what we saw at the start of Feb 96 - not to say the end may be very similiar though!..

[Weather-history]

A lot clearer here, moon is visible and as a consequence a frost has developed.

[lukemc]

I suggest you read some of the posts in the la nina thread explaining how in strong la nina years as we are having now we tend to see the coldest conditions earlier in the winter with the polar vortex then setting up shop in a position less favourable to northern blocking, this has happened this year.

It doesn't look like we are likely to see any snow for the remainder of the month - blocking highs by there nature produce very dry weather with little instability.

Longer term - we will need a significant change in upstream pattern if we are to see some further snowy weather. The polar vortex needs to split and anchor into scandinavia. Some are saying a possible stratospheric warming event may occur which could disrupt the PV in February and bring in much colder weather from the east increasing chances of snow.

It is difficult to call at this stage what the remainder of winter may bring. I have a feeling we will some further wintry weather before the end of Feb, hopefully earlier in feb than later.I also think March and April will provide many surprised with some very cold air descending over the country.

As for comparisons with Jan 96, that was a very different set up, we had high pressure extending westwards from west russia and bringing in much colder uppers to the country. At the same time the atlantic was very weak, with neutral ENSO conditions and a very negative AO and NAO, when the front arrived on the 5/6 Feb it was forced to undercut the high pressure and became very sluggish as a result stalling in situ and producing the very long lasting snow. I remember Feb 96 very well, it was a predominantly cold month, though it did become milder and wetter for a short time in the middle, this was replaced with very cold north easterlies and further snow with the end of the month finishing on a dry cold settled theme, this lasted through much of March with further snow around 11-13th and very cold weather later in the month with raw easterlies. I would love to have another Feb 96, but the start to this Feb will be a far cry synoptically speaking from what we saw at the start of Feb 96 - not to say the end may be very similiar though!..

Interesting to here your mention of La Nina and the fact that if often results in the coldest conditions in December and then getting less cold later on in the winter. This has got me thinking about the conditions across North America at the moment as opposed to Western Europe - does the normal rule the La Nina = colder than average early winter - milder than average late winter apply to North America also as North America (the eastern half at least) is going through a severe spell at the moment with some very cold temperatures forecast e.g. -20C and below in Chicago etc. so very cold even by thier standards. I have also seen some posts saying that the deep cold over NA is not helping in us getting a sustained cold pattern over this side of the Atlantic but I thought that is more favourable for cold here further down the line with winter storms coming of the US eastern seaboard resulting in Warm Air Avection over Greenland - can you explain how the severe cold over NA at the moment could be unfavourable for cold (or at least upper cold conductive to snow) over UK/Western Europe.

Luke

[Weather-history]

Interesting to here your mention of La Nina and the fact that if often results in the coldest conditions in December and then getting less cold later on in the winter. Luke

If you look at this thread and see the results, you can see there is not a lot going for this idea.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/68019-la-nina/

It seems this winter fits the pattern but how many strong La Ninas had such a cold start? None. Even La Nina 1916-17 had a December that was 2.8C warmer than December 2010.

[itsnowjoke]

chilly day today but no frost this morning been cloudy most of the day. a high of 6c today but still felt colder even though there was no wind..

sun peeked through the clouds the odd time. boring weather at the moment and from reading the model thread nothing much likely to change

also just noticed that they have moved the reputation thingy, probably for the best it just seemed to cause trouble.

Edited January 23, 2011 by wheresmysnow

[itsnowjoke]

this feels really odd to me for winter....but that maybe because i was spoiled in end/2009/ beggining/2010 the end of 2010 was great but not as great as the year before in my opinion. and as iwrite this you can tell that theres nothing going on with the weather as im the only person on here sad hey. no friends no life no snow and im talking to myself.

oh well off to bash my head against a wall least its more fun than the weather at the mo.

Edited January 23, 2011 by wheresmysnow

[Verglas]

overcast all day, still 7.4c, little crack of cloud to see a sliver of sunset this afternoon

[Liam J]

Quite sad to see mid winter slip by so quietly... BORING

4.1c here and cloudy and calm, wonderful....

[Weather-history]

Cloud has broken up somewhat. It broke up last night.

[dodge]

It's all a bit meh at the moment. Temps were up a few degrees on yesterday. Mostly cloudy and not much going on. Had a very light brief shower this afternoon but January has been a pretty forgettable month, unlike December of course.

[HotCuppa]

It's going to be a rather interesting fortnight ahead. I said 3 or 4 days ago Sunday (today) would see temps rise to around 8C, and for the most part I was right.

It hasn't even remotely been cold, let alone the claims about the cold spell being interesting. The last 4 or 5 days have seen average January temperatures.

Course away from hilltops 5/7C as generally been the temperature. So nothing to even remotely suggest a cold spell..everything has been rather normal.

I wish I could say we'll get snow in a week or two, but I just can't. If anything it looks to me like we'll be stuck under the same type of weather pattern for the

foreseeable future. January as been as remarkable as December and I wouldn't be surprised if this Month went down on record for being the polar

opposite of what December was as one of the warmest if not the warmest CET on record.

Lets hope for a scandi high, coz thats about all we can hope for in the immediate future.

Another cold day but unlike yesterday much more cloud about. It dawned frosty again, temps at freezing at 10am still. I wnet walking in the fells near Mardale and it was a lovely scene on the way up with trees coated in rime frost. However, when I arrived temps had climed to 2 degrees. On return all frost had gone when I got back here with temp maxing at just below 4 degrees. Right now we don't have a frost yet unlike the last four nights where by 7pm we had an air frost.

Tomorrow looks a very similiar day to today but with more cloud and tonight will probably only get as low as freezing perhaps -1 degrees. Still this is a cold spell we are in, and apart from a slight warm up early next week, by middle of the week frosts will be back. It is also a very dry spell, 6 days now with no rain, and I don't see much more than very light drizzle in the coming days.

But its not a cold spell at all. The current temperatures are normal January averages 0.o

Little evidence of this

Tomorrow rain / drizzle onwards for the NW, probably closer to the coasts.

[HotCuppa]

If you look at this thread and see the results, you can see there is not a lot going for this idea.

http://forum.netweat.../68019-la-nina/

It seems this winter fits the pattern but how many strong La Ninas had such a cold start? None. Even La Nina 1916-17 had a December that was 2.8C warmer than December 2010.

How many have had to deal with the gulf stream being weaker?

[Weather-history]

January as been as remarkable as December and I wouldn't be surprised if this Month went down on record for being the polar

opposite of what December was as one of the warmest if not the warmest CET on record.

Its going to be close to average, it ain't going to be the close to warmest on record. Its going to be nearer to 3C colder than January 2007.

Tomorrow rain / drizzle onwards for the NW, probably closer to the coasts.

What you said

"it does look as if rain could be a very big feature again either next week or the week after."

Rain is hardly going to be a very big feature this week or by the looks of it into next week either.

Edited January 24, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Liam J]

The boring prolonged period of weather continues, the cold/snow of early winter seem a distant memory away... the models make straw clutching and depressing viewing to the point where i just have a quick glance at the model thread to see if any new trends have been spotted.

I would be happy with gales and rain atm, cold/snow even better.

Edited January 24, 2011 by james12

[itsnowjoke]

4c here today but feels a lot lot colder with a slight wind

not much seems to be happening with the models seems like we are gonna be stuck with this boring weather, what a dissapointment it was a great start to winter, new it woudnt last to good to be true.after all THIS IS BRITAIN.

[AderynCoch]

It's just a shame the overcast blanket infiltrated the high so quickly. I was rather expecting that we'd hold onto sunny/foggy/frosty weather for a bit longer.

But at least it's not mild!

January as been as remarkable as December and I wouldn't be surprised if this Month went down on record for being the polar

opposite of what December was as one of the warmest if not the warmest CET on record.

Say what?

Looks very likely that we're heading for a pretty average January CET-wise.

[itsnowjoke]

could have a wintery shower on thursday according to met office and the bbc weather this lunchtime......................I KNOW snow at this time of year ridiculous. lol

also found this chart

even if it came off it misses me lol

Edited January 24, 2011 by snowwhere?

[HotCuppa]

It's just a shame the overcast blanket infiltrated the high so quickly. I was rather expecting that we'd hold onto sunny/foggy/frosty weather for a bit longer.

But at least it's not mild!

Say what?

Looks very likely that we're heading for a pretty average January CET-wise.

Looks like i have been on the sherry when I made that post, and about rain lols. Your right CET will be about average for this month...the only thing is those monster high temps for the first couple of weeks (13,14,15C) when the average temp is 5/7C

Its going to be close to average, it ain't going to be the close to warmest on record. Its going to be nearer to 3C colder than January 2007.

What you said

"it does look as if rain could be a very big feature again either next week or the week after."

Rain is hardly going to be a very big feature this week or by the looks of it into next week either.

Today we've had rain and light dizzle through this afternoon, which petered out. I agree on a hasty comment about rain, your right. It does look dry and it looks like high pressure is going to remain with us right through until the first week in February. It just shifts to the north then the east then shifts back again.

Overnight frosts will likely be a feature, but the problem is there is still lots of cloud mixed in. NE / E kicks in and by Thurs temps down to 3C, maybe overnight frost if there is no cloud.

It looks absolutely drab for another few weeks, as we can't loose this high pressure. Just hope a scandi high forms later.

Edited January 24, 2011 by HotCuppa

[AderynCoch]

Those temperatures were only attained from the 12th to the 16th, and even then not always that widely. The month up to that point had been rather cool (remember it snowing on the 7th?), and the last few days have been fairly cold.

Check this thread out:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67319-january-cet/page__pid__2035869__st__204#entry2035869

The CET so far is 4.5C, which is close to the 1981-2010 average (4.4C). We look likely to finish below the 71-00 average (4.2C) and possibly the 61-90 average too (3.8C).

The warmest January on record (1916) had a CET of 7.5C. January 2007 came in at 7.0C, and was 8.3C up to the 20th!

[itsnowjoke]

not looking great is it for a return of winter?

temp 5c.

humidity 87%.

wind-w

dew point 4F

rather have stormy weather than this type........coldish it maybe but blooming boring.

Edited January 24, 2011 by snowwhere?

[Weather-history]

The CET so far is 4.5C, which is close to the 1981-2010 average (4.4C). We look likely to finish below the 71-00 average (4.2C) and possibly the 61-90 average too (3.8C).

More telling is that Philip Eden has the region as being 0.3C below the average by the 20th and that is after the very mild interlude. So regionally and with colder uppers looking a possibility we could be a bit below the average, more so than the CET.

Edited January 24, 2011 by Mr_Data

[damianslaw]

A non-descript sort of a day. The days ahead look dry and becoming cold again with low maxima and return of air frosts and possible freezing fog. There isn't going to be much wind about and we will be sheltered from any cloud drifting in from the N Sea.

Compared to December, this month has been very unexciting but apart from the short mild spell between 12-16th, it has been a rather cold month in the main and the days ahead will help tally up the number of mornings with air frost.

Snow wise it has been very poor indeed, we have not had one morning with snow cover, and I can't see this changing by the months end - compared to the 18 mornings with snow cover in December.

Wed, Thurs, Fri and Sat last week here in the Lake District constituted a cold spell, with maxima below 3 degrees and minima below -3 degrees - average mean of 0 degrees - we managed an ice day on Friday.

[AderynCoch]

A poor morning with quite a lot of rain around. Dullsville.

[itsnowjoke]

rain here borrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring.

Edited January 25, 2011 by snowwhere?