Convective Weather Discussion UK

[Static Prevails]

see post 76

Thanks, every reply has made me feel confident.

Bring it on... or something.

EDIT: Thanks Ari.

Edited April 23, 2011 by IAmJohnnyDisco

[Guest]

Can anyone tell me which direction that Pennine storm is heading and whether it's likely to hit me? Rain Today isn't really helpful in that regard. :winky:

Seems to be heading north, northeastwards.

Plenty of big towers around, I'd keep your hopes up for something better coming up from the south or southwest right now.

The raintoday radar shows that the Barnsley cell has grown/backbuilt a little, perhaps giving the impression that it's heading south.

Edited April 23, 2011 by Ari

[Mesoscale]

This would have everything you need.

http://www.metoffice...te/uk/anomacts/

Thanks! I was pretty confused at first but it shows the south during the summer months being down a couple of days on thunder activity for the last couple of years now compared to 1971 - 2000.

looking at the actual days of thunder last year the midlands didn't do to badly...

Edited April 23, 2011 by Mesoscale

[johnholmes]

further to post 76

the upper winds are all from a touch west of south, that is the movement to expect on any storms as they develop.

However, as in almost every case in meteorology - a complication!

In my post I commented on the upper trough. This is driving the whole weather system east, so the best plan is to follow NW radar, get buying it if you have not already got it, and play the radar through over 1-2 hour periods to see where the individual cells are moving and how they have moved over the past 3-6 hours.

Check the surface observations, metars or whatever else you find on the web.

All very interesting but do TRY some of you to walk before you can run, but don't let old grumpy here spoil the fun for you!

[Adi F]

The atmosphere is too capped, it will take quite a change to break it but as others have said the Midlands is the place if anything happens. I think it is one of those days that if anything happens it will happen very fast and dramatic or nothing will happen.

[A.J]

This would have everything you need.

http://www.metoffice...te/uk/anomacts/

cheers for the link Dave, looks like the SW quarter, Wales and parts of West Midlands came off worst last year, East Anglia and the Wash up to Humber (which IMO isn't the Midlands) came up trumps.......Anyhoos, interesting stats indeed, but for now, back to the weather, that clumpl over the penines looks static, the old updrafts decay, and new updrafts form, at least thats a positive sign in so much as there's a bit more vertical shear around today....Further to the west, there are hints of a few showers starting to break out over mid wales, from an IMBY perspective, these are the one's I'm most interested in

[Paul Sherman]

Classic Backbuilding of the cell near Barnsley, I would expect people SE Of Leeds to be hearing Thunder pretty soon.

[camiscool]

Thanks for being positive adi

[Carl]

So folks, what are we making of the risk for Tyneside today?

The Met Office warning seems to just omit this area but everything i've seen in this thread seems to suggest we're front and centre for any potential risk.

Additionally, we've had our first rain pass over Newcastle in the last hour.

[weatherobsuk]

Nice photogenic CB has been building to the East of me which no doubt everyone is also seeing around the Peak District regions. Looked to have been triggered by Kinder Scout/Bleaklow and is showing a classic overshooting anvil some 10 mins ago, with inflow evident as cells backbuilding around it pushing continual moisture into the main storm. Got some pics of it's development i'll sort through later when the day is over.

[Mesoscale]

http://www.sat24.com/gzoom.aspx?ir=false&region=gb&x=426&y=356

[johnholmes]

the cells over the Peak District that various posters are referring to is a classic case of various things being right at the right time-well if its a storm you want.

Uplift over the Peak District, low level convergence, winds are west-nw west of the Pennines and variable east of there, temps are about right as are dewpoints, the overall movement will be a touch north of east but it is likely to expand, build back as has been suggested.

The area remains much the same at risk overall as post 76 suggested.

[Guest]

Can see the Barnsley cell, although it's more obscured by lower level cloud now. Small, but pretty tall cumulus/cunimb right over the house now, with towers behind. Looking southeastwards I can see cumulus beginning to develop, with skies still clear to the east

[Adi F]

Thanks for being positive adi

Just being realistic, there is no point being positive for my area unless something strange happens I wont see anything. I have not even seen a single cloud for over a week.

[MP-R]

I take my pessimism back. Nearly 25C out there with a dew point just short of 12C and clear skies, bar a distant cb to the northwest.

[johnholmes]

Nice plug for NW radar old grumpy. I take it your on commission?

IF only mate

re the storm/Cb over the Peak.

Even through the haze, its appeared on a bearing of about 300 degrees from me, nothing there 30 mins ago; ignore that last bit the old fool had S11 on not DN!

Edited April 23, 2011 by johnholmes

[tomp456]

Just being realistic, there is no point being positive for my area unless something strange happens I wont see anything. I have not even seen a single cloud for over a week.

Yeah I'll second that. Im in Worthing. There was talk of maybe something tomorrow but I think thats out the window, too.

[Craigers]

Can see the cb from that storm in doncaster!

[Evening thunder]

Some more general larger cumulus bubbling up here, clear to the south and directly overhead due to a sea breeze, but the cumulus start probably about 1 mile to my north, so nearly overhead. There appears to be what looks like a small anvil far to my WSW, with a tower or 2 visible. This would support the Net Weather radar showing a localised shower over Dartmoor due to the help of the high ground.

[Guest]

Some more general larger cumulus bubbling up here, clear to the south and directly overhead due to a sea breeze, but the cumulus start probably about 1 mile to my north, so nearly overhead. There appears to be what looks like a small anvil far to my WSW, with a tower or 2 visible. This would support the Net Weather radar showing a localised shower over Dartmoor due to the help of the high ground.

Met office Radar shows some heavy ppn around the Leeds area and the visible Sat image is now showing Cb's starting to show up in the Midlands

LO

[pinball wizard]

I am thinking that East Anglia upwards would be the best place to be currently.

Convection is definitely beginning to get going, first tentative signs of what may be to come this afternoon are evident by the 'turrets' beginning to go up to my north (see pic).

Currently 26c with a dp of 9c

Edited April 23, 2011 by pinball wizard

[janetmh71]

Somewhere like Wisbech could be in the sweet spot come 4pm

Im only 5 miles from wisbech so hope you are right ;-)

[Supacell]

Is it possible the peak district cell could come here or am i better trying to catch the leeds cell. Advice please

I can't check myself as i have only got internet on my mobile.

Edited April 23, 2011 by Supacell

[Gray-Wolf]

I've been watching those clouds go up over the past hour , they seem to be building in the wake of the first one that went up (and developed an anvil?). If you look at the meto rainfall plot you can see that the ppn doesn't move much but the clouds are certainly tracking towards the Leeds area (end of a sunny day for them there!).

Edited April 23, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[pinball wizard]

Im only 5 miles from wisbech so hope you are right ;-)

Doesn't happen too often but i've been known to be right once or twice before lol

Edited April 23, 2011 by pinball wizard