Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[The PIT]

Well forecasts of Armageddon were well over the top. Just a band of light to moderate rain. North western areas saw some storms. I suspect the killer was the cloud that killed any temperature rises in this area.

Anyway top the ponds up time. 15.6mm helped at bit though.

Edited May 8, 2011 by The PIT

[Stuart]

There was no show last night here maybe today or Monday

[grab my graupel]

Such a silly comment to make when you, like another member yesterday, obviously hadn't understood the factors that were in place across a large part of the country to lead various forecasters to forecast the risk of severe convective weather including the potential for tornadoes. No-one was forecasting meteorological "armageddon". The forecasts were not "well over the top", they were neccessary.

Yes, no severe convective weather occured (as far as I know) within the main risk box yesterday, but was still a severe convective risk day. Forecasters don't guarantee that severe convective weather will occur- they outline the risks of severe convective weather that could occur, and the reasoning behind their forecast.

Yeah, Also I think it's the uncertainty that makes the radar watching more fun. I think if we all knew exactly when we were going to get a storm, it would take away gloss. Apart from showers/rain, I didn't have any activity either, but I thoroughly enjoyed myself yesterday. Given that we're still in Spring, there will be plenty more opportunities.

[nanu]

well i suppose you can understand the anger from some ppl across the country regarding the forcast. But to be honest theres no-one to blame.. Friday night we had some fantastic storms moving up across the country, yesterday morning we had the warnings for something even bigger that could hit us.. but alas was nothing but a wet squib with everybodys hopes up. So please do not blame anybody on here regarding the forcast that never was, they go by what the charts are possibly saying.

A Long summer to go yet guys for more rounds of action.. mind you i think i said that last december for the winter snow... and er, nothing else happened

[Coast]

Saying this as a pilot, but i think the best things to follow can be METARS and TAFS, stands for terminal area reports terminal aerodrome forecasts. The Metars are great for for nowcasts though, and unfortunately no where is reporting thunderstoms, Leeds Bradform (EGNM) was at about 10 o clock but thats it since. N to the privous message, nothing good here since about 2007 to be honest

If you want to check the METAR's, TAF's and NOTAM's for the nearest airport to you, here is where you can do that with a decoder built in so you can see what is actually being reported:

http://www.skystef.be/metar-taf.htm

On this page you can find the short code for the airport you are interested in (UK is half way down the page, my local is SHOREHAM-BY-SEA = EGKA):

http://www.skystef.be/stations.txt

This is what the decoder information is currently for Shoreham:

METAR text: EGKA 080750Z 20006KT 9999 FEW008 SCT025 14/13 Q1013

Which means:

Conditions at: EGKA (SHOREHAM-BY-SEA , GB) observed 0750 UTC 08 May 2011

Temperature: 14.0°C (57°F)

Dewpoint: 13.0°C (55°F) [RH = 94%]

Pressure (altimeter): 29.91 inches Hg (1013.0 mb)

Winds: from the SSW (200 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 knots; 3.1 m/s)

Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)

Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL

Clouds: few clouds at 800 feet AGL

scattered clouds at 2500 feet AGL

Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

Forecast for: EGKA (SHOREHAM-BY-SEA , GB)

Text: EGKA 080802Z 0809/0818 21014KT 9999 SCT025

Forecast period: 0900 to 1800 UTC 08 May 2011

Forecast type: FROM: standard forecast or significant change

Winds: from the SSW (210 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 knots; 7.3 m/s)

Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)

Clouds: scattered clouds at 2500 feet AGL

scattered clouds at 2500 feet AGL

Weather: no significant weather forecast for this period

NOTAM ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOTAM ) info is here, again just enter the short form airport code:

http://notam.caa.ro/notam/main.php

[IanR]

latest bbc weather forcast had the presenter still harping on about thundery showers everywhere...oh shut up

[NO LONGER POSTING]

latest bbc weather forcast had the presenter still harping on about thundery showers everywhere...oh shut up

well going by the clouds here I would say you could be in for some...some high level clouds here after the rain has moved through and still the odd pulse of light rain here

[IanR]

well i suppose i should not be too angry at yesterdays damp squib as we got a small storm here during the evening, but the frequency of the thunder and lightning went less as it came overhead, to just one flash every five minutes after sounding like it was going to be a bit of a corker as it was approaching , but it was better than nothing, Feel sorry for thunder lovers who have seen nothing again, I used to be jealous of the south easterners for the amount of storms there, but it seem we are having more in the last couple of years,

seems a chance again today for this area, lets see

[Alex95]

There should be some heavy showers this afternoon, and there is a slight risk of thunder especially over Northern England. Tomorrow there is a greater chance of thundery showers, developing in the west and becoming thundery by the time they reach the East / North East, though the SE and East Anglia look dry.

[Coast]

I've just put a load of charts and other people's forecasts in the detailed thread but effectively, without promising anything, it looks like North Wales and Mersey might get some convective gusts or even a remote chance of a tornado late afternoon - but don't shoot me if it doesn't happen!!! :lol:

[NO LONGER POSTING]

looks like any storms might be coming the bay of Biscay? some precipitation starting there now ? ?

[Coast]

well i suppose i should not be too angry at yesterdays damp squib

No, we can only guess at the weather - not create it!!!!

[TEITS]

Well what a disappointment. We not only didn't have any storms but missed most of the rainfall which is most needed in these parts.

Have to say though im not that surprised. Despite all the models/forecasts available to us I feared the worst yesterday morning just by simply glancing out of the window. The overall cloud amount and general lack of sunshine didn't fill me with much confidence. Just goes to show that sometimes your instincts can be a more accurate forecasting tool than the models.

[Phelpsy]

Well i only got rain last night bu was greatful for that. Im not going to come back on here till later now as got things to do. IF there is any developments then i wish you all luck. But dont be downhearted if you dont get anything. This is only the begining. And good things come to those who wait. I think we will have a realy hot summer this year so you never know, we may have many days/nights of storms. Have fun and play nice

[Kain]

Yeah they got it wrong yesterday, but I still enjoyed myself on here radar watching. Part of the fun with british storms is the tombola draw to see if you get one. Too ment were stressed yesterday because nothing happened - Why? If your getting stressed over not seeing a storm in May then I think theres something really wrong.

Have fun, watch radars and chat with other like minded people. Thats what its all about to for me.

[TonyH]

Not sure 'they got it wrong'.

I had the overall impression from the models and forecasts for the few days leading up to yesterday of a wet night for many, i.e. 'thundery rain' but few actual thunderstorms. Perhaps my interpretation was wrong , but I could not really understand the hype in here yesterday (entertaining though it certainly was).

Edited May 8, 2011 by Tonyh

[Lynxus]

Wow Glad I decided nothing was going to happen @ 11pm hehe Seems like some people had a sleepless night

Hmm, Doesn't look like much will happen today apart from maybe a few convective showers..

Until next time aye

[TEITS]

Wow Glad I decided nothing was going to happen @ 11pm hehe Seems like some people had a sleepless night

Hmm, Doesn't look like much will happen today apart from maybe a few convective showers..

Until next time aye

I stopped checking the radar at 2pm such was my lack of confidence.

Looking outside and using my instincts I reckon I have a better chance of seeing a storm today than recent days and I haven't viewed one single model. Shall be interesting to see what happens.

[Jane Louise]

No storms for me last night (how unusual :lol:) Plenty of rain though which I'm grateful for.

A very stormy sky here right now after a couple of hours of sunshine.

I believe something may happen today Lol

Good luck once again all.:winky:

[Lynxus]

I stopped checking the radar at 2pm such was my lack of confidence.

Looking outside and using my instincts I reckon I have a better chance of seeing a storm today than recent days and I haven't viewed one single model. Shall be interesting to see what happens.

Tbh i think your right ( I only based my convective showers on my feeling this morning and what i can remember from chars last night.. )

However.. Looking over a few charts it does appear like an occluded front is due to cross over today. so that may shift a few things about.

I personally think theres a good chance of some larger showers about later if we can get some heating going. Thunder? maybe.. Quite possible inland.

Im thinking:

Edited May 8, 2011 by Lynxus

[weatherobsuk]

Well at least today there'll be more clear skies for surface heating to get underway, the occluded front is now passing through Wales with nothing but clear sky and your typical rotational low convection sparking up behind. At least what the cells lack in strength they make up for photographic wise. Plenty of them coming in too from the southwest so later this afternoon shall be a CB treat i'm hoping.

A shame last night never came to fruition, woke up at 3am and took a quick look on the Radar only to find everything had fizzled out. Can't win everytime I guess.

Edited May 8, 2011 by SNOW_JOKE

[The PIT]

Such a silly comment to make when you, like another member yesterday, obviously hadn't understood the factors that were in place across a large part of the country to lead various forecasters to forecast the risk of severe convective weather including the potential for tornadoes. No-one was forecasting meteorological "armageddon". The forecasts were not "well over the top", they were neccessary.

Yes, no severe convective weather occured (as far as I know) within the main risk box yesterday, but was still a severe convective risk day. Forecasters don't guarantee that severe convective weather will occur- they outline the risks of severe convective weather that could occur, and the reasoning behind their forecast.

Not a silly comment to make some of the forecasts forecast were well over the top. Sadly these forecasts again make Joe public discard any future warnings as it "Never happens" If you go back through the threads on this you'll find super cells mentioned tornado's etc large hail etc. The day time forecasts made it clear it was going to be horrendous night which again wasn't even close.

Ever heard of the phrase cry wolf you need to study it.

Strangely I agree with the EYE I suspect more beefy showers around today. Yesterday the killer was the lack of warmth. JohnH posted soundings that temps between 22c and 26c were needed here for local convection. Never got close. If we had clear skies and the warmth that would have triggered storms more widely.

Hopefully the over hype lessons will be learnt but so far they haven't been so. Anyone remember the great storm that never was.

Last nights forecast wasn't technically wrong they were storms around and some heavy rain it's just that the hype factor led everyone to believe a far more interesting night was to be in store.

Edited May 8, 2011 by The PIT

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Few pictures of the clouds here yesterday morning and this morning around the same time

yesterday morning looking east the passing thundery shower

looking west some dark clouds about 10 mins ago

Some very dark clouds around this morning, not due any rain but going by the forecasts over the last few weeks I wouldn't be surprised if it snowed later XD (I joke )

Few pictures of the clouds here yesterday morning and this morning around the same time

yesterday morning looking east the passing thundery shower

looking west some dark clouds about 10 mins ago

Some very dark clouds around this morning, not due any rain but going by the forecasts over the last few weeks I wouldn't be surprised if it snowed later XD (I joke )

Sorry about the size :/ HD camera phone

[Costa Del Fal]

I think its time to forget yesterday now because whatever we say isnt going to change the outcome it was!

Today and tomorrow is a classic Thundery shower situation with Wales, West Midlands and Northern England (Esp NW England) in the firing line today and the same plus some other Eastern areas tomorrow.

Edited May 8, 2011 by Blizzards

[Coast]

Didn't get the breakdown on yesterdays/last nights soundings but they would probably tell the tale. Even the RAF Valley sounding for late afternoon is not inspiring despite me sticking my neck out earlier: