El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 3

[Alex95]

Seriously? I don't see it as any 'gaff up'. Nobody guaranteed a storm anywhere...All the forecasts/warnings were for a 'risk' of severe weather. Nobody can know precisely what the atmosphere will do or when it will do it. But, I think if the potential is there then it should be discussed. There was quite a model disagreement on the outcome but all the signs were there for something 'potentially' big to happen - hence why we had a weather risk mentioned for today.

And there were storms, only they were in NE England rather than in Eastern England. If the MCS from France shows up overnight in the SE its been quite accurate. And the storms in NE England exploded into pretty intense downpours within half an hour - at 14:00 I was starting to give up as I'd have expected some light showers to pop up, but by 14:30-15:00 it became apparent that an enormous deluge was on its way. The same could happen everywhere else - it reached 26°C here (more like 23°C where the storms bubbled up first), and its much hotter than that down south.

Edited June 27, 2011 by alza

[UKSupercell]

This is just taking the mickey now.

Sat here by my PC playing a bit of red dead redemption on the xbox 360, and the clouds just got greyer, it started raining and lightning started flashing in the distance!

Don't believe I'm actually witnessing a storm here in Bucks, outta nowhere!

Yeah that's right, on bloody red dead redemption not in real life!

Come on, gimme a break for crying out loud!

OR, is red dead redemption a sign of things to come in real life over the next few hours?!?! Fingers pessimistically crossed!

[Wales123098]

EXTREMELY dark clouds coming over Cardiff. Intensifying rapidly over Bristol Channel. Just heard thunder.

[Neilsouth]

We still could go bang

Edited June 27, 2011 by Victor Meldrew

[Mike Storm]

radio 5 live have just announced that thunderstorm on its way towards wimbledon!!!!

what popycock.... nothing on the radar at all

[Snowstorm1]

Hope I get something!

My luck is much worse than many of you'se as i missed the wonderful storms this afternoon by a what 20 -30miles?

[Phil UK]

How unbelievably annoying

It's like I've won a life supply of doughnuts but I've got my mouth sewn up.

I like that analogy, Lauren. But I share your pain.

My last entry in the NSC went...

"If recent Spanish plumes, (Circa 2007) are anything to go by then I shall, I shall not be moved! It's that dang Solihull shield. But we'll see."

Now... Woke up (at stoopid O'clock because it was too warm to sleep) and out I went as had something to do. 28.1ºc at 11:30am and with plenty of Alt Cas moving in from the diurnal storms over Biscay overnight.

But apart from the thundery looking skies which was akin to June 2005 when the Spanish plume did pay off back then with evening thunderstorms, all Solihull has had are short periods of moderate rain.

Even travelled down as far south as Stratford-upon-Avon, (so wasn't that far from Cheltenham, Jayne. ) same threatening skies but again, just rain in sporadic dribs and drabs. Got back here at 5:30pm and now sunny again but, with a fair amount of Altocumulus passing by.

Current temp : 24ºc

DP : 16ºc

So my NSC thesis was right it seems about me being yet still storm starved, yet this is the best opportunity we've had for many a Summer to date. I do wonder if the MeTO do overplay such weather issues, more so in Winter when snow seems imminent, but comes to no avail.

But good luck anyway, the evening is young. B)

Phil.

[Backtrack]

Actually this may be an indication that activity is developing or will do soon as cooler air from somewhere has cut under the warmer air in the region, and there is only one direction that warm moist air can go.

Upwards.

Possibly, but it has been dropping at a dramatic rate since around 3pm.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Distinctly grey here now - Look East dollybird said showers, some thundery, banding together late in the night.

[Dave Clarke]

Well unless there are thunderstorms without any rain, nothing is on radar yet.:lol:

Or thunderstorms without thunder as well

[Lt. Dan]

a Risk of SEVERE

Anyway lets see how this pans out over night eh?

Of course, still a while to go yet. I'm not defending anybody but I do think they can't win either way at times.

[StormChaseUK]

This is just taking the mickey now.

Sat here by my PC playing a bit of red dead redemption on the xbox 360, and the clouds just got greyer, it started raining and lightning started flashing in the distance!

Don't believe I'm actually witnessing a storm here in Bucks, outta nowhere!

Yeah that's right, on bloody red dead redemption not in real life!

Come on, gimme a break for crying out loud!

OR, is red dead redemption a sign of things to come in real life over the next few hours?!?! Fingers pessimistically crossed!

Where in Bucks??

[Kiwi]

25c and the sun has come out. Lovely evening here...time for a beer on the patio I think.

Looking forward to seeing lots of lightning strikes starting to show up in an hour or two.

[A.J]

Well cover me with flour and bake me for 20 mins, I spy with my little eye something beginning with 'Anvil' ! (to my SW) ...Nice Cb appearing amongst the breaks in the clouds, in fact it's showing up quite nicely to the SW of brum embedded in some mid-level stuff on SAT24

[The PIT]

Actually this may be an indication that activity is developing or will do soon as cooler air from somewhere has cut under the warmer air in the region, and there is only one direction that warm moist air can go.

Upwards.

Even more interesting if the 18:15 forecast was correct the difference in temps. You would have thought that would provide the forcing.

[Lt. Dan]

And there were storms, only they were in NE England rather than in Eastern England. If the MCS from France shows up overnight in the SE its been quite accurate. And the storms in NE England exploded into pretty intense downpours within half an hour - at 14:00 I was starting to give up as I'd have expected some light showers to pop up, but by 14:30-15:00 it became apparent that an enormous deluge was on its way. The same could happen everywhere else - it reached 26°C here (more like 23°C where the storms bubbled up first), and its much hotter than that down south.

That's true, I think he meant the warning for the south east though.

[Tim B]

EXTREMELY dark clouds coming over Cardiff. Intensifying rapidly over Bristol Channel. Just heard thunder.

It is the line of showers I have been watching for the last few hours, it intensified rapidly as it hit land and it is now approaching your area at around 40 mph.

[Kain]

Dropped could and the wind has picked up suddenyl. cold front comming through?

[Cloud 10]

I'm almost afraid to talk about it on here in case I get lynched by everyone else! The North East looked like it could miss out on storms today, but now we could end up being the only place with a storm!

Took a video of that storm on my phone so pretty poor quality but the thunder ain't bad!

I'm a bit suprised there isn't more storms around in other areas yet.although there are some fresh strikes in the southwest.

keep the faith!

[paul m]

Thats not completley fair. The problem is if you intend to put out forecasts based on output alone, it pays to actually look out of the window so to speak as well. As the models can call it 90%, however a sheild of high cloud, can kill of any chances of development. It became quite obvious early on today when the cloud sheild was advancing over the South West,

that little if any activity would be the outcome, even though the beeb are still putting out warnings for storms over southern england.

Shows where there is any likely hood of activity from now till say 23.00 Hrs.

Now you have posted that have a look at its projected track.. kent clipper????

[essex coast matt]

Nasty looking storm on euro radar north of paris, but sadly moving NE away from us

[Lancashire Lass]

Starting to rain lightly here, Temp 17.2c, dewpoint 13.1c, humidity 78%

[Dave Clarke]

Copied across from UKww

PJB

Location: Southbourne, Bournemouth, Dorset

First signs of destabilisation of the plume in Central Biscay, some growing AcCast visible on Rapid Scan HRV imagery. Trajectories suggest this is the growth Region for any storms in the far SE later tonight.

-----

Paul Blight

UKww Manager - Education/Warnings

Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society

Southbourne, Dorset, 1M ASL.

[Neilsouth]

Nasty looking storm on euro radar north of paris, but sadly moving NE away from us

Yep, France get's the big guns again

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well cover me with flour and bake me for 20 mins, I spy with my little eye something beginning with 'Anvil' ! (to my SW) ...Nice Cb appearing amongst the breaks in the clouds, in fact it's showing up quite nicely to the SW of brum embedded in some mid-level stuff on SAT24

Yes, as I said earlier, looks like it has taken the advance of the cold front to start kicking things off. To be honest, I couldn't really find a plausible explanation as to how the models/various forecasts could not foresee that it would at least bring some precipitation