22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[Supercell 89]

Here she is!

Thar she blows! It looks as though its sparking off some smaller showers in a line westwards which may also drift northwards.

Can hear some rumbles and bangs now ....... unfortunately they are fireworks

[thunderhead 2005]

98 miles and intensifing

[PubliusEnigma]

Ok so my money is on the two arrows showing the track of the most intense activity with the devlopeing cells taking this track with the shear taking the less intense rain to its NW as the whole show moves NNE. I expect the low to develop and a rotation to become in evidence as the low crosses into Southern England. So whilst the most intense rain and thunder will be on the eastern flank, any rotation will 'feed' potentially some heavier thundery rain around the northern flank quite possibly in the area shown by the red line with this similar pattern remaining as the low trundels NNE.

[Dean E]

Can confirm distant flashes have started in the last 5 minutes...

Keep hearing loud rumbles, but these are from low flying jumbos... must be getting diverted around the Storm.

Good sign

[Coast]

If you look at the last 2 frames on the met radar you can see the big pink blob at the bottom, just starting to come out of France into the picture and heading this way :-)

Bring it on bad boy!

[weatherobsuk]

http://www.sat24.com/en/fr

[camiscool]

so this is supposed to go on all night? where is all the stuff for the morning? :s

[A.J]

Hmm...that mesoscale system is starting to weaken on its western flank, but maintaining strength on its east and north east quadrant, some very bright echoes on radar and frequent strike detections...Bare in mind that this cluster almost certainly started as SB storms over France, I would expect the MCS to weaken as it crosses the water, but quite possibly reinvigorate once over land again as more warm moist air is advected in the mid-levels in the form of elevated thunderstorms...As a rough guide a line from say Portsmouth to Hythe streaming north east should expect the greatest probability of being affected by these storms overnight

[95 Degrees]

Who wants to bet that the French storms will look at the channel and go NO THANKS! and taper the rain as well to make sure that we get light/moderate rain and nothing interesting, channel is approaching it's warmest for the time of year though, around 15-17C in the channel currently

[Buckster]

Flightradar interesting tonight - spot where all the planes are avoiding !

http://www.flightradar24.com/

[PubliusEnigma]

Met Office 9.30pm radar looks menacing with the yellow and pinks and reds on the leading edge ! :o

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

[Fitzwis]

Hi all

Impressive lightning displays here in the island for the last hour or so, not particularly frequent but exceptionally bright and it has just started to rain heavily

Good luck along the South Coast overnight

[Coast]

so this is supposed to go on all night? where is all the stuff for the morning? :s

As I posted earlier, the potentially most potent time is still around 0300 hrs in the morning, with most of it dying out by 0600 hrs.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bring it on bad boy!

cheeky..

[coldfingers]

Can confirm distant flashes have started in the last 5 minutes...

Keep hearing loud rumbles, but these are from low flying jumbos... must be getting diverted around the Storm.

Good sign

Sounding good! Please keep us posted SnowMania.

[Mapantz]

98 miles and intensifing

I wouldn't say intensifying, it's losing intensity, but it's growing in size. 12Z 700hPa shows a nice PVA lobe at vortmax across parts of Dorset and one across parts of Kent at 03Z. So Kent/Sussex/Essex are likely to see some flash flooding from this.

[Coast]

Hi all

Impressive lightning displays here in the island for the last hour or so, not particularly frequent but exceptionally bright and it has just started to rain heavily

Good luck along the South Coast overnight

Looking forward to some high level stuff in the early hours, fingers crossed!

[snow raven]

As I posted earlier, the potentially most potent time is still around 0300 hrs in the morning, with most of it dying out by 0600 hrs.

prays to God I don't sleep through any activity! On the plus side, even if I do, or the thunder fizzles out by the time it reaches me, I don't need to water the plants and garden!!

[MP-R]

Plenty of sferics around in the Channel but I am slightly confused by the conentration of strikes around Liverpool on the N-W Strikestar.

[Fitzwis]

WOOOOAAAA...HUGE prolonged flashing followed by exceptionally loud thunder! Amazing

[PubliusEnigma]

Activity on NW and W flank of this disturbance has dropped off markedly in last 15 mins, although

the NE flank heading for Sussex and Kent looks to be maintaining its own.,.

http://meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=215&y=300

[Damp and dreary]

Bring it on bad boy!

Aaah there you are, thought you would be lurking here somewhere! Callie and Mr CB too! I think im gonna take a look in the back garden and see if i can see any distant flashes yet, its getting ever closer.

[Wet'n'Dry]

Flightradar interesting tonight - spot where all the planes are avoiding !

http://www.flightradar24.com/

You might want to try http://www.radarvirtuel.com/ Use Firefox as IE whatever is too slow!

[ZONE 51]

250 users reading!!...at ten pm on monday night.. must be something on its way

[tinybill]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

some very heavy looking rain now leaving the french coast