22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[Harry]

To be honest I can't see much happening. The French storms have been going all day and haven't crossed the channel, the local westerly flow might indicate the low pressure areas to our south west are sucking us dry. Although I live in hope I fear it may be another false alarm .... I beg to be proven wrong!

The reason the French storms thus far haven't reached us because of the proximity of the LP system that was then leaving Spain/Portugal and entering the BoB.

Best part of 10 hours later the LP centre has moved much further North and is continuing to fire immense storms on it's track. Given it's current location it seems inevitable to hit the South coast somewhere - if the easterly swerve kicks in then I think Stormyking (who's been awfully quiet) and Coast amongst others will be very happy indeed (and me hopefully yay)

The best thing is, as has been said, is that the western MCS has defintely got more of a northerly track...notice that there is a new cluster of powerful storms erupting towards the more NE of France which are rather unlikely to come near our shores but should, I'd suspect, start giving some decent lightning displays subject to how much cloud there is in between.

I am increasingly excited for two reasons....one the system is still very much convective rather than frontal....I currently cannot detect distinct fronts which the MetO had plotted from early this morning. Two, the LP is still off the W Coast of France rather than cutting inland...the FAX chart from today had two LP centres over N France, moving progressively further east. At present I can only see one, which is further West.....

Fingers crossed one and all....

PS I'm certainly no expert....I bow down to the brilliance of Nick F who is a storm forecasting God!!

[Guest Quantumsnow]

No breeze here, very quiet and still outside. Could've heard a mouse drop

Think I might be in a reasonably good place for once!

Can anyone on the coast see anything out at sea yet?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Wish I had passed my test -.- as I would be on the coast now!

[Dean E]

Sounds like you are up on the hill at Havant then.

Lucky you! Every time I have been along that hill I have always envied people their view. Hoping you see something special tonight SnowMania.

Ahh yes I am very lucky to have such a view! I think we may see some form of show, but we shall see!

Still no sign of anything, just orange sky from the city lights of Portsmouth!

[Wet'n'Dry]

PS I'm certainly no expert....I bow down to the brilliance of Nick F who is a storm forecasting God!!

You're doing a great Job Harry and thanks for the insight. I still think that due to local observations in my area that this will be a non-event, however I do wish I am wrong!

[thunderhead 2005]

sefrics has weakened damn you channel

[Robbie Garrett]

Someone post there Netweather radar screenshot pleaseeey, wanna see what this beast is doing?

[ITSY]

Anyone picked up on the Tornado potential for tonight - it sounds an exaggeration but surely it has to be a possibility, particularly given some of the 70+mph wind speeds recorded in France during today...

[coldfingers]

sefrics has weakened damn you channel

Aaargh! Still as long as I get plenty of rain I will be (relatively) happy but if it starts to dissipate I will be very unhappy indeed.

[TheToastPeople]

I wish it would hurry up i have been watching the radar since yesterday

[Dean E]

Here she is!

[Supercell 89]

A few strikes have been detected out of that band approaching S Devon/Torbay....A lovely sferic grab from the NWx radar, shows up an MCS over northern France beautifully...It moving slowly northwards currently, with new storms firing on both western & eastern flanks of the system....Could be a VERY interesting night for southern parts

Ah cool the other sites i've looked at have showed nothing but this gives me a little hope, can't remember the last time i did radar watching for storms over here lol. That MCS certainly looks tasty could well be a noisy night for some!

If you follow that band down to the west of France it starts to fizzle out. I guess this is the 'back edge' of the low as it heads NE. I fear this is all we're going to get the further west we are.

Although it won't be as intense as what is forecasted for the SE tonight, we are forecasted slow moving thundery showers on thurs/fri according to bbc weather. Thats what im looking forward to next, as I cant see much reason to expect much tonight except some persistent heavy rain where I live. Better potential for lightning in Dorset/Wiltshire apparently.

However if lightning does reach here tonight I wouldn't complain

Yeah it would be brilliant to get a nice little storm tonight it would make it the second this year lol but i think your right we may just get some heavy rain, could possibly have some thundery showers follow in the early hours though?

Edited August 22, 2011 by Supercell 89

[A.J]

Someone post there Netweather radar screenshot pleaseeey, wanna see what this beast is doing?

I did....check the post from 30 mins ago

[wchris_uk]

hoping for a good light show tonight, would be nice to have some very load thunder!

wish i still had a car would sit at Dover cliffs watching only have a moped now and realy don't feel the urge to get wet tonight,

off topic super quick im fully gutted my nephew smashed my screen on my weather station totally unusable now

if anyone has this station http://www.maplin.co.uk/professional-wireless-weather-centre-220865

i have the outdoor bits if anyone is intrested,

[GadgetWeatherFreak]

The distant flashing of lightning in the channel, and get this, i have access the lifeboat station so am about to go up the observation tower, result although if gets bad im coming down

[thunderhead 2005]

sefrics has reduced somewhat,

Edited August 22, 2011 by thunderhead 2005

[flysurfer]

where are you diesel ??

[Chris K]

Ah cool the other sites i've looked at have showed nothing but this gives me a little hope, can't remember the last time i did radar watching for storms over here lol. That MCS certainly looks tasty could well be a noisy night for some!

Yeah it would be brilliant to get a nice little storm tonight it would make it the second this year lol but i think your right we may just get some heavy rain, could possibly have some thundery showers follow in the early hours though?

Its all possible! Im currently keeping an eye on the storms on the NW tip of France. At the moment it has a more northerly path! But whether it hits us is dependant on when the westerly force kicks in and pushes it gradually east.

[Wet'n'Dry]

Actually, after studying rain today and the IOW detector it looks like the French storm moving north from Cherbourg may hit the mid Southern UK coast to meet the localised Westerly low level flow we have in the south, thus sending the already energised potential upwards to develop some impressive storms. It's a complex situation and I'm no expert but it's certainly worth watching.

[Robbie Garrett]

Here she is!

I did....check the post from 30 mins ago

Thanks, keep posting when it gets closer. Looking big, lets hope the English channel strengthens this beast.

[thunderhead 2005]

Storm location bearing 166.9 dgr distance 103 mi Last recorded activity 21:38 Intensity class Weak Intensity trend Intensifying Current strikerate 8/minute Peak strikerate 29/minute Total recorded strikes 2173 Cloud-Ground strikes 1224 - 56.33% Intracloud strikes 949 - 43.67% -- Strike type distribution -- Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 295 - 13.58% Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 929 - 42.75% Positive Intracloud [+IC] 502 - 23.10% Negative Intracloud [-IC] 447 - 20.57%

[Lauren]

I have a nasty feeling my area will be left so close yet so far.

[MR CB]

Tonight is exciting indeed...still a while till I can venture out and look to the sea. I have a feeling this will fan out and lose a little energy over the Channel, but will give us some much needed rain.

I do like the intenisty of its arcing front on the radar - must be quite a sight to see torrential rain right at the front...needs to move a little more east for my liking but further development is possible.

[lottiekent]

The distant flashing of lightning in the channel, and get this, i have access the lifeboat station so am about to go up the observation tower, result although if gets bad im coming down

Where are you Diesel Snow Plow? I'm in Folkestone. Just been outside and had a look but nothing to be seen as yet from my vantage point at the moment (I'm a quarter of a mile from the cliffs)

[Damp and dreary]

If you look at the last 2 frames on the met radar you can see the big pink blob at the bottom, just starting to come out of France into the picture and heading this way :-)