22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[Coast]

Oh to be in Le Havre or Boredeaux right about now. Potent cells with lightning charts showing sferics spitting out of them at a consistent rate.

Well here's the next best thing:

http://webcam.ville-lehavre.fr/

or:

http://www.wimereux.biz/bigwebcam.htm#

Or even the now infamous, Brest webcam!!!

http://www.port-aberwrach.com/index.php?LiveCam

And for those unable to get here for anything overnight:

http://www.bexwatch.co.uk/

http://www.itsfine.org/weather/wx_webcam_mjpeg.php

http://www.bbc.co.uk/kent/content/webcams/dover_webcam1.shtml

[lewis028]

Evening all,

So it sounds like it's going to be an interesting night with loads of coffee and radar watching, good luck to everyone in the S/SE bring on the beast..

[staplehurst]

Those west of IoW, I really wouldn't make it an "all nighter", it will only be sporadic embedded activity, main proper storms (if any) will be east of here. I'm in Norwich and am doubtful I will get anything either...

[Mapantz]

Hi!

Looking quite interesting tonight for some Southerners. This isn't complete thunderstorm potential, although the SE will fair a better chance of seeing some than anywhere else. That's not to say you won't see any thunder & lightning mixed in with the torrential downpours in the small hours of tomorrow morning. I think you'll be seeing updated forecasts later, as this is a very complexed setup.

Looking at the current ELT .. it has diminished since earlier, but still shows the slight potential for the SE in terms of elevated lightning and embedded storms.

Basically, just keep an eye on the radars, and look out for sferics if you're up late tonight.

I'm in the Purbeck's area of Dorset, i'm expecting some heavy rain, but nothing substantial.

Edited August 22, 2011 by Mapantz

[weatherobsuk]

Cells heading North

http://www.sat24.com/en/fr

[AWD]

Those west of IoW, I really wouldn't make it an "all nighter", it will only be sporadic embedded activity, main proper storms (if any) will be east of here. I'm in Norwich and am doubtful I will get anything either...

With the summer were having over here, I'll happily take sporadic embedded activity!! I'm hoping to get up to 3 claps of thunder tonight!! Lol!!

Good luck all anyway!! Aside from tonight, Thursday/Friday currently looking good for some widespread thundery showers!!

[P-M]

I think it's mainly down to the thermal gradient. Convective instability amongst other things, is largely down to how quickly you can get a parcel of moist air from near ground level to high up in the atmosphere forming lovely big CB clouds....providing you have moisture and a favourable atmospheric profile of course (i.e no excessive CIN, dry layers and so on)

Therefore, if near the ground in summer, the temperature is 25C and upper air temperatures are -15, you have a temperature gradient of 40C (higher the gradient, the quicker the air will rise). If in winter however you have 0C at the ground and -40C uppers, CBs will rise in the same fashion providing you have the same atmospheric profile. In winter, you have a lot more cold air around, which generally contains a lot less moisture than warmer air and so on and so forth, so storms are less common.

Temperatures of circa 23C is certainly nothing to cry about with warmer air advancing all the time.

We had plenty of thundersnow last November here, forked lightning the works through the night was great, so yes it is most definately possible!! lol

[coldfingers]

Had a small amount of much needed rain here in the last 20 mins. I would be happy just to have some very heavy rain tonight as the ground is rock hard again at the moment.

[EML Network]

YET ANOTHER chart with Brighton slap bang in the middle, I think I might stay up late tonight as well.... the big orange blobs of lovelyness in NW France on the radar look to be making more of a Northerly movement now than earlier, I could well end up eating my words tonight, this is going to be a close call for us along the South Coast

[Raidan]

I was thinking of doing a allnighter even got a bottle of energy drink to help keep me awake,but as more and more is said about the east and nothing said about the west im not going to now,Looking at the sky now theres abit of bubbly cumulus about but nothing else going on,Shall watch the united game check radars and if things still look the same shall call it anight.

[P-M]

Those storms on the continent are enough to make me want to move over there

[Eskimo]

Popcorn cells now erupting over Northwest-France!

[Harry]

Had a small amount of much needed rain here in the last 20 mins. I would be happy just to have some very heavy rain tonight as the ground is rock hard again at the moment.

I'm sure I don't need to point out torrential rain + rock hard ground = high risk of flooding

[Eskimo]

Gust of 73mph just reported from Nantes which is in the middle of that storm in north-west France.

[ITSY]

i may retract my statement that cambrdge could get a hammering - we'll get rain without doubt, but i think it'll be simply fairly heavy with occassional thunder and the odd bit of lightning - nothing THAT unusual. classic cambridge!

[Staffordshire]

What webbie you guys using to view the storms in france?

[Supacell]

Despite my girlfriend thinking I am mad I am seriously considering making the 200 mile trip to the south coast. One last attempt at getting to see a good storm before I retire until next year. I have been waiting for the chance all summer and just feel this could be the one.

[Harry]

The sky line to my S looks gorgeous!! Looks like the sky you have the morning after a whopping MCS - Very dark silky looking Ac

[staplehurst]

Despite my girlfriend thinking I am mad I am seriously considering making the 200 mile trip to the south coast. One last attempt at getting to see a good storm before I retire until next year. I have been waiting for the chance all summer and just feel this could be the one.

I wouldn't do it personally, but it's up to you

[Jane Louise]

What webbie you guys using to view the storms in france?

Try these

Coast posted them up for us on the last page.

http://webcam.ville-lehavre.fr/

http://www.wimereux.biz/bigwebcam.htm#

http://www.port-aber...dex.php?LiveCam

http://www.bexwatch.co.uk/

http://www.itsfine.o...ebcam_mjpeg.php

http://www.bbc.co.uk...r_webcam1.shtml

[AWD]

Don't storms usually become quite common in Sept and Oct too? What with the warm summer air being shunted away by polar air etc!!

I remember many storms in the last 10 years during Autumn months!!

Still all too play for, for large parts of the country this week, so if like me, tonight is a no show, there are still chances, especially Friday for more thundery activity!

Back to tonight, lot of forecasters warning of flash flooding, travel distruption etc in the London/SE area during tomorrows rush hour so be warned you lot down there!! Enjoy though anyway!

[Chris K]

Things look to be developing nicely for the SE tonight. Doesn't look that good for me though. Not yet anyway. Interesting watching it all develop in NW France!

[GadgetWeatherFreak]

Despite my girlfriend thinking I am mad I am seriously considering making the 200 mile trip to the south coast. One last attempt at getting to see a good storm before I retire until next year. I have been waiting for the chance all summer and just feel this could be the one.

[Nick F]

12z GFS still not keen on painting any MLCAPE across the SE tonight, though has the heavy rain. UKMO seem much keener to break out storms across the SE tonight/Tuesday morning - the TAFs for some airports in the SE of England forecast thunderstorms and this was reflected in the BBC weather bulletins this evening. So all's not lost yet.

[GadgetWeatherFreak]

Sorry this iphone and signal made my last post go wrong, i have nothing to lose as have been kicked out today, whats the worse that can happen if you go storm chasing ! Your girlfriends/wives will understand !