22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[vortex_liam]

well, if you want a storm, here is the best place for them to form over france

[Staffordshire]

well, if you want a storm, here is the best place for them to form over france

I shall be a VERY angry man if they affect West Sussex area! Just got back and 'was' going to book another night but didn't think it was worth it.

[Eskimo]

A lot of convection happening over North-Western France, keep your chins up!

[cobbettp]

Well its 20.8c out, surely thats not hot anough for storms? or any convective elements

[Coast]

TORRO and ESTOFEX still not going with any forecast at all. They must be short staffed or holding on until late evening to be certain

Well its 20.8c out, surely thats not hot anough for storms? or any convective elements

Marginal, but DP's are still up:

[Eskimo]

Well its 20.8c out, surely thats not hot anough for storms? or any convective elements

Storms can happen at them temperatures. I've witnessed storms at a temperature of 14C, heat aids convention yes, but it isn't always necessary

[cmimrie]

It's currently 22.0c here w/57% RH.

It's in the shade at the rear of the house, it's gone up ever so slightly in the past hour by +0.7c.

Hopefully things track slightly more West, it's been a while since we've had a good storm and I've gone out and bought a new DSLR so it'd be a fantastic christening for the camera to get some storm footage tonight (Full-HD @ 30fps).

[Harry]

A lot of convection happening over North-Western France, keep your chins up!

Indeed

Got to say as well, I'm really struggling to find any pronounced frontal boundaries! To the east we have advecting warm and humid air, interspersed with dry air intrusions around the Low. Along these dry air intrusions we have the thunderstorms erupting....could this remain a more convective thundery disturbance rather than adopt the frontal features (which would increase the thunderstorm risk in lieu of frontal precip)...

Edited August 22, 2011 by Harry

[Jane Louise]

Looks like I'm going to be up all night now UKASF have upgraded their forecast... it's going to be exciting folowing this.

[Harry]

Well its 20.8c out, surely thats not hot anough for storms? or any convective elements

You can get thunderstorms when it's well below zero so I wouldn't worry too much about the temperature

[Coast]

KO index still looking good as part of the mix:

Crosses the Channel at around 0100 - 0200 hrs:

Got some light spit spots of rain here in Mid Sussex

[Eskimo]

You can get thunderstorms when it's well below zero so I wouldn't worry too much about the temperature

That's a good point, eg. Thundersnow. Although isn't that mainly down to frictional disturbances?

[EML Network]

There does seem to be an increasing amount of activity and unstability across NW France right now, potential for storms to break out almost anywhere in that region over the next 4-5 hours, however, they all seem to be following the same path, and are at best tracking the southern most tip of the English channel, Eastbourne, Bexhill, Hastings, Folkstone are likely to be the favoured spots for anything this side of midnight, thereafter It's a lottery, not even the experts can make any firm decision, it looks increasingly likely that somewhere by tomorrow lunch time will have seen an extraordinary amount of rain, this is the most exciting day of the summer thus far for me ...I love that no one really knows whats going to happen.

[AWD]

Looks like I'm going to be up all night now UKASF have upgraded their forecast... it's going to be exciting folowing this.

We should be so lucky to get anything in our part of the world Jane!! Not much support for thundery activity this far west!! Nevertheless I shall be staying up just in case a miracle does happen!!!

[Adi F]

I shall be a VERY angry man if they affect West Sussex area! Just got back and 'was' going to book another night but didn't think it was worth it.

Personally I think you should have stayed the extra night. Things look a bit more promising now than they did earlier today.

[Jane Louise]

We should be so lucky to get anything in our part of the world Jane!! Not much support for thundery activity this far west!! Nevertheless I shall be staying up just in case a miracle does happen!!!

That miracle may well happen yet lol .Let's hope they make it up this far to us lol fingers crossed an all that .

[Coast]

Well, when is this lot going to start moving NE then?

Here is where it should be heading:

[anvilhead]

seems to be some development south of lyme bay, and south of the iow - probably nothing, but you never know -

[Eskimo]

Quick note.

If you are unfortunate enough to miss the possible thunderstorms then you can catch some foreign ones tonight on this webcam.

http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/

[Neilsouth]

The chance of storms in kent is 0.1%

[A.J]

Just mulling over an idea of starting a new thread....."The Midlands non-convection Forecast - Non- Discussion & Reports" ........seems rather apt!

Oh well, time to radar watch tonight, hopefully it will show a nice collection of red sferic detections for those sarf-eastern folks tonight/tomorrow

[Jane Louise]

Quick note.

If you are unfortunate enough to miss the possible thunderstorms then you can catch some foreign ones tonight on this webcam.

http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/

That'll be me then lol. Thanks for sharing.

[weatherobsuk]

Oh to be in Le Havre or Boredeaux right about now. Potent cells with lightning charts showing sferics spitting out of them at a consistent rate.

[Harry]

That's a good point, eg. Thundersnow. Although isn't that mainly down to frictional disturbances?

I think it's mainly down to the thermal gradient. Convective instability amongst other things, is largely down to how quickly you can get a parcel of moist air from near ground level to high up in the atmosphere forming lovely big CB clouds....providing you have moisture and a favourable atmospheric profile of course (i.e no excessive CIN, dry layers and so on)

Therefore, if near the ground in summer, the temperature is 25C and upper air temperatures are -15, you have a temperature gradient of 40C (higher the gradient, the quicker the air will rise). If in winter however you have 0C at the ground and -40C uppers, CBs will rise in the same fashion providing you have the same atmospheric profile. In winter, you have a lot more cold air around, which generally contains a lot less moisture than warmer air and so on and so forth, so storms are less common.

Temperatures of circa 23C is certainly nothing to cry about with warmer air advancing all the time.

[Staffordshire]

The only problem was I didn't have any Internet acsess in my b&b, I had to book judiging on the conditions Friday night which were obviously a lot different. But hey it just my luck Im guessing the west middlands got something satarday by the look if things?

Personally I think you should have stayed the extra night. Things look a bit more promising now than they did earlier today.