Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Robbie Garrett]

UK Metoffice also shows the same thing, 60mph sustained winds inland, 80mph on coastal regions, gusting up to 100mph??

[bobbydog]

personally, i think the highlanders should batten down the hatches, whereas us southerners should just close the patio umbrella and put some extra pegs on the washing!

[Staffordshire]

I still think it wil track further south.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

All fun and games a side..This could turn out to be rather nasty for you guys up North...I hope you all are safe and ready Us southerners I think are glad this one isn't on it's way to us

[knightrider]

personally, i think the highlanders should batten down the hatches, whereas us southerners should just close the patio umbrella and put some extra pegs on the washing!

Some graphics are showing it'll track to the north of Ireland and across Scotland like initially thought but others are now saying the centre will pass over the Lancashire area with the strongest winds south of that over the Midlands and southern England so it all depends on what you believe I suppose, I guess we'll know more accurately it's exact track over the next couple of days!

[lorenzo]

Using the gadget Coast found - here are all the models and tracking.

Anyone seen Northern Britain under there??

[Robbie Garrett]

I still think it wil track further south.

I think the low that comes before it keeps it south, along with the Jetstream - we'll see. I was reading somewhere, that Katia will have some very moist air in the upper atmosphere with it, whatever that does for us - I have no idea.

[knightrider]

All fun and games a side..This could turn out to be rather nasty for you guys up North...I hope you all are safe and ready Us southerners I think are glad this one isn't on it's way to us

That isn't confirmed that it's not heading for us, local London forecasts today suggested things could get pretty wild on Monday and alot of the computer graphics are suggesting the track of this storm could swing south bringing us southerners the strongest winds, it's all up for debate aswell as updates that'll give us a better idea of just how strong it's going to be and where abouts! And you live near Thorpe Park I see, that's cool my favourite place in the whole world lmao I luv rollercoasters.

[bobbydog]

my gut feeling is that the models' predicted track will be correct. low pressure systems generally follow this path, so why should this one be any different? personally i think those who want to experience some extreme weather should plan a daytrip to north-west scotland or ireland. that said, its not beyond the realms of possibility!

anyone who experienced the storm of '87 can vouch for that!

[Shadow]

There is not a lot anyone can do about this ex Katia storm wherever it hits. The weather will do what it likes. I am just going to be prepared when and if it does come this way.

[knightrider]

Looking at some of the lastest updates I would say the bulk of the UK is going to feel the effects of this, looks as if it's going sweep across the south 1st probably on Sunday night into Monday morning then by afternoon/evening on Monday it will have shifted round so that the winds push north up the country into Scotland before it pulls away into the north-sea and up towards Norway and Sweden.

There is not a lot anyone can do about this ex Katia storm wherever it hits. The weather will do what it likes. I am just going to be prepared when and if it does come this way.

Luvly dog by the way lol Is he yours?

[Neilsouth]

Wanting "exciting" weather is one thing.....hoping that this thing has a direct impact on the UK as I have seen a few people posting such on other forums is quite another. Were this storm to directly hit us, there would undoubtedly be significant loss of life...so no thank you on this one.

Significant... in this country?

You're affin a laf

[knightrider]

John Hammond's latest tropical storm report on the BBC weather website mentions Katia heading our way and says it's a storm thats going to effect the UK and north western Europe so sounds like quite a widespread thing!

[Shadow]

Luvly dog by the way lol Is he yours?

Thankyou, Yes she is my dog and her name is Faelan aged three and a half.

[knightrider]

Sorry it's a girl lol, aww she's cute. Black labrador isn't it?

[Paul]

None of the major, or(from what I've seen) minor modes have bought any significant winds to the south of the UK with Ex Katia - so although nothing can be ruled out when it comes to this type of system as they're very difficult to predict with absolute accuracy, it's most likely to affect the northern half of the UK - with Scotland and Northern Ireland the likeliest direct hits.

That said - a look at the GFS shows one thing - Sunday is actually going to be pretty windy in the south so although not directly related to this system there are 2 batches of windy weather to be keeping an eye on....

Current GFS gust forecasts:

Monday:

Sunday:

[Richie V]

This was the 2000 storm I was mentioning earlier, although I'm not so sure Barnsley had 90mph winds from this sounds abit too far north to me cause I specifically remember this being a south/south-east event and we had 90mph winds here or wasn't you living in Barnsley back then Richie?

Barnsley Indeed. It was an incredible night. Around 8 PM on the 29th I drove to a freinds In Doncaster (Carcroft) It was raining fairly heavily and quite breezy from the SE. I left at about midnight and it was hard to controll the car heading north on the M18. Very heavy rain and poor visibility.

On getting home around 00:45 there was a near gale ESE'ly pressure was around 985Mb. I'd not seen any weather on TV so did'nt think so much of it. Anyway I cot something to eat, watched some tv then had a long soak in the bath. Went outside for a smoke at around 04:10 and was not as windy but really intense rain. The main thing that struck me was just how low and fast moving the cloud base was. It was almost like a speeded up time lapse video. At ths point I realised something was badly amiss, looked at the weather station to see a pressure of 964Mb with a drop of 9 Mb in the last hour. At sub 950 mb everything fell flat calm..... not a breath of wind. Oddly enough the clouds were still racing in a westward direction at an increadible speed. At 04:50 Immediate hell broke out. Picture this, I was stood on the doorstep smoking, flat calm winds and very quickly I noticed a distant bassy sounding roar. It got louder and louder very quickly then my ears popped and my head went light, at this point I literly crapped myself. Over came a gust of 86 mph from the west from been flat calm, It was totally deafening. At this point the clouds were STILL streaming east to west!

Edited September 8, 2011 by Richie V

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That isn't confirmed that it's not heading for us, local London forecasts today suggested things could get pretty wild on Monday and alot of the computer graphics are suggesting the track of this storm could swing south bringing us southerners the strongest winds, it's all up for debate aswell as updates that'll give us a better idea of just how strong it's going to be and where abouts! And you live near Thorpe Park I see, that's cool my favourite place in the whole world lmao I luv rollercoasters.

Ahh Well all the best to everyone then And yes I can hear it when the wind is in the right direction..I don't like rollacosters I hate that funny feeling in your stomach :S

[knightrider]

None of the major, or(from what I've seen) minor modes have bought any significant winds to the south of the UK with Ex Katia - so although nothing can be ruled out when it comes to this type of system as they're very difficult to predict with absolute accuracy, it's most likely to affect the northern half of the UK - with Scotland and Northern Ireland the likeliest direct hits.

That said - a look at the GFS shows one thing - Sunday is actually going to be pretty windy in the south so although not directly related to this system there are 2 batches of windy weather to be keeping an eye on....

Current GFS gust forecasts:

Monday:

Sunday:

Seems like the southern event for Sunday though is very localised down the channel, dosn't look so strong inland. There's alot of fluctuation on Katia actually there has definately been alot of suggestion that it could come south but the likelyhood is it wont, but if Scotland has 80-100mph winds then the south would still feel the outer effects of it so 50mph or so still a probability, I remember we had that when Scotland had that big storm back in Jan '05.

[Paul]

Seems like the southern event for Sunday though is very localised down the channel, dosn't look so strong inland. There's alot of fluctuation on Katia actually there has definately been alot of suggestion that it could come south but the likelyhood is it wont, but if Scotland has 80-100mph winds then the south would still feel the outer effects of it so 50mph or so still a probability, I remember we had that when Scotland had that big storm back in Jan '05.

There's fluctuation but as yet no models have shown it to significantly affect the south of the country, although yes - 50mph or so is possible just about anywhere..

[Shadow]

Sorry it's a girl lol, aww she's cute. Black labrador isn't it?

Yes Black Labrador the photo was taken when she was a puppy, we also have a female chocolate labrador Cala who is eleven and Reilly (male) Yellow Labrador who is nineteen weeks old today.

Sorry mods very off topic.

[peterf]

whatever occurs i'll be ready come sunday.poultry and tunnels closed down and a swift tidy up to save from any flying debris damage.

roll on tuesday it'll be windfall apple picking day lol.

[knightrider]

Yes Black Labrador the photo was taken when she was a puppy, we also have a female chocolate labrador Cala who is eleven and Reilly (male) Yellow Labrador who is nineteen weeks old today.

Sorry mods very off topic.

Lol yes off topic but lets have an arrrrh moment hehe I luv labrador's, very gentle dogs!

[chionomaniac]

None of the major, or(from what I've seen) minor modes have bought any significant winds to the south of the UK with Ex Katia - so although nothing can be ruled out when it comes to this type of system as they're very difficult to predict with absolute accuracy, it's most likely to affect the northern half of the UK - with Scotland and Northern Ireland the likeliest direct hits.

That said - a look at the GFS shows one thing - Sunday is actually going to be pretty windy in the south so although not directly related to this system there are 2 batches of windy weather to be keeping an eye on....

Current GFS gust forecasts:

Monday:

Sunday:

Interesting to note Paul, that the last 3 fax charts for 12Z Sunday have downgraded the shortwave affecting the south coast, maintained the longwave trough position and pressure, whilst increasing the strength of ex Katia. Will this continue?

[knightrider]

whatever occurs i'll be ready come sunday.poultry and tunnels closed down and a swift tidy up to save from any flying debris damage.

roll on tuesday it'll be windfall apple picking day lol.

The predictions suggest the strong winds could still effect the far north of Scotland into Tuesday aswell.