Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards

[scotty_boy_winter]

Yep! But this year isn't set up for the snow we had last year. Mild old winter I feel

@ch It's annoying isn't it?

[Aaron]

78/79 wasn't either.. if November 1978 was occurring right now there'd be so many winter is over posts this forum would fail to function.

[nick sussex]

Given some of the posts you'd think it was mid winter and there was a strong PV over Greenland.

It's too early to say what will happen and there seems to be alot of impatience to see some great synoptics.

Snow in November rarely comes before the end of the month anyway and there are very few instances I can remember where theres been decent snow before the last week of the month so considering we're just about to head into the month then people just need to chill a little.

The synoptics at the moment may not be exciting but i've seen alot worse heading into November.

[OldMetMan]

I've been sitting back a bit from commenting on the recent models as we are in a very commonplace type of flow but something caught my attention on the 120H UKMet last night. I think what happens a few days from now will determine the course of synoptic development for some time.

Large upper trough and associated LP looks likely to disrupt in a few days and there is some considerable uncertainty over what happens after that. The UKMet chart I mentioned is showing HP building N of Scandinavia, looking as if it would replace the persistent HP over much of Europe. We have already had this upper low disruption once this month, after which the westerlies simply resumed. The question is, will it do the same again this time? The GFS seems to think so but not the UKMet.

It is tempting to think that the remarkably early snowstorm over the eastern US is a flavour of things to come for the UK. Certainly, for this to happen we would need an upper trough over the E US with a mid-Atlantic ridge allowing a deepening upper trough to develop over W Europe, something that could develop from chart the UKMet showed at 120H..

It will be interesting to see if the UKMet continues with the HP buildup idea over the next few days or indeed if the GFS/ECM pick up on it. Anyway, for the time being at least, unseasonably mild air for the whole UK; don't be surprised if temperature maxima set new records!

[weathe20]

Given some of the posts you'd think it was mid winter and there was a strong PV over Greenland.

It's too early to say what will happen and there seems to be alot of impatience to see some great synoptics.

Snow in November rarely comes before the end of the month anyway and there are very few instances I can remember where theres been decent snow before the last week of the month so considering we're just about to head into the month then people just need to chill a little.

The synoptics at the moment may not be exciting but i've seen alot worse heading into November.

People tend to forget that last year in November some locations recorded record breaking high temperatures before the end of the month when the cold arrived.

[Methuselah]

Can we please go back to discusssing the models, and not merely expressing wishes for cold weather; especially when considering that the models are not showing any?

[Frosty.]

According to the latest models, this week will be unsettled apart from tomorrow which looks dry and sunny for most areas apart from a few showers in the far north west. Rain spreads east midweek onwards but around sunday it looks like pressure will rise from the south and next week looks much more settled but with increasing fog risk with slight frosts but with pleasantly mild sunny days where the fog clears, apart from the far northwest which looks windy and more unsettled. The Gfs 06z has a lot of high pressure towards the south and east but later in the run there are signs of a change to a much more mobile atlantic pattern but it's too early to have any faith in a mid nov pattern change.

[Glacier Point]

I've been sitting back a bit from commenting on the recent models as we are in a very commonplace type of flow but something caught my attention on the 120H UKMet last night. I think what happens a few days from now will determine the course of synoptic development for some time.

Large upper trough and associated LP looks likely to disrupt in a few days and there is some considerable uncertainty over what happens after that. The UKMet chart I mentioned is showing HP building N of Scandinavia, looking as if it would replace the persistent HP over much of Europe. We have already had this upper low disruption once this month, after which the westerlies simply resumed. The question is, will it do the same again this time? The GFS seems to think so but not the UKMet.

It is tempting to think that the remarkably early snowstorm over the eastern US is a flavour of things to come for the UK. Certainly, for this to happen we would need an upper trough over the E US with a mid-Atlantic ridge allowing a deepening upper trough to develop over W Europe, something that could develop from chart the UKMet showed at 120H..

It will be interesting to see if the UKMet continues with the HP buildup idea over the next few days or indeed if the GFS/ECM pick up on it. Anyway, for the time being at least, unseasonably mild air for the whole UK; don't be surprised if temperature maxima set new records!

Indeed the models have been here before, remember the Greenland block that the GFS was advertising at one stage until the models got to grips with the situation. Current modelling is I suspect being influenced by quite a strong mountain torque over Asia although the background context - low heights over the Arctic being driven on by stiffening polar westerlies and the notable tendency for mean trough to our west - remain.

Both GFS, NAEFS and ECM ensemble mean products suggest a continuation of the south-westerly theme with the block stationary to our east and trough to our west.

[glasgow-guy]

usually what the east coast of USA get we tend to get the tail end does anyone think this could be our first possible chance of snow this autumn ?

Edited October 31, 2011 by glasgow-guy

[Radiating Dendrite]

usually what the east coast of USA get we tend to get the tail end does anyone think this could be our first possible chance of snow this autumn ?

No.

We will see this low pressure system come across the Atlantic and influence the weather here, but it will bring warm SW winds and certainly no snow!

[Dale Leigh_6487]

The models continue with the mild outlook for the moment. i really carn;t believe how mild it is. ive just poped out only wearing my t shirt and boy does it feel mild. i wonder if any records could be brocken. yesterday i saw a butterfly and ladybird in the garden this sums up the mildness. please feel free to delete . Dale Hyde Cheshire.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

I can beat that just before that brief colder spell I saw 2 House Martins, still loads of ladybirds and butterflies down here. 18.3c recorded yesterday!

[Dale Leigh_6487]

i think this could turn out to be a very mild autumn Timmy. record breaking infact. but i think the second half of winter could well be record breakingly cold.

[Jeckers]

Quite a different run from the GFS this afternoon, winds mainly from an Easterly direction from the weekend right through to the end of the run. Under different circumstances with more cold pooling or later in the year this could be quite an interesting run!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Amazing, the 12z is a completely different run to the 6z! Very easterly dominated from just beyond the reliable.

If FI on the 12z was showing at +48 in January my eyes may have popped out!! Talk about weather porn!

[AWD]

GFS is still a mild run throughout though, regardless of the wind direction being easterly in FI. It even drags the 10c isotherm onto East Anglia before cooling down to just above average temps!

However in FI on the GFS, europe and more especially eastern Europe does get some cold air dragged down and if FI verified ( which is unlikely admittedly ) and the GFS went a little further out towards the last third of November then that cold air could get dragged towards us on the easterly!

All will change by tomorrow anyway, that's the best I can find for any sort of cold weather!

[Strider]

The right run at the wrong time for coldies, although that said it does help to move the cold air mass into Scandi which could be crucial later on.

Also good to see Metociel have the runs coming out at the proper times now

[feb1991blizzard]

Key thing to look out for here will be the pressure ensembles for Scandinavia which will give us some indication of whether a pattern change is likely or its just the GFS throwing up a rogue run again, the latter i would suggest.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Key thing to look out for here will be the pressure ensembles for Scandinavia which will give us some indication of whether a pattern change is likely or its just the GFS throwing up a rogue run again, the latter i would suggest.

I'm not so sure if it will be a rogue run. The UKMO and GFS at 144hrs are almost identical.

Plus today's 500mb height anomolies show a change in high pressure movement to the North/North East.

Edited October 31, 2011 by Jimblob

[wolvesfan]

Hello all,GFS has been rocking back and forth with the idea for a pressure rise to our north east for a while but today its braught it a lot closer to the reliable timeframe,also ECMWF,UK met showing some support on this.eastern europe also showing on todays runs to cool significantly from around thursday onwards,wonder if that will have any bearing on our weather donstream?.

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm not so sure if it will be a rogue run. The UKMO and GFS at 144hrs are almost identical.

Plus today's 500mb height anomolies show a change in high pressure movement to the North/North East.

The GFS has gone down this road a few times lately though only for the Atlantic trough to dominate again on the next run, admittedly the UKMO is interesting and it is in the more reliable now but i think that the Northern extent of the high is being exaggerated and that is just the signal for what the UKMO have been hinting at in their 6-15 dayer lately, namely a brief HP situated over the south and a very brief dryer spell for the North before the Jet fires up again although that ECM 8-10 day mean heights anomalies chart is interesting so a strong scandi high not without support admittedly, even then though looking at the uppers profile it would have to stick around a very long time to advect anything downward of -7 into us which it would have to do, at least there are signs there though.

Edited October 31, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Backtrack]

At what time of year would one expect the models to start showing cold pooling over Europe, making Easterlies effective?

[Stormyking]

At what time of year would one expect the models to start showing cold pooling over Europe, making Easterlies effective?

Going by last year, End of November on wards

Models do show sort of change, with a more easterly looking picture but would guess it will still feel quite mild.

Plenty of time yet guys, hurry up December!

[feb1991blizzard]

At what time of year would one expect the models to start showing cold pooling over Europe, making Easterlies effective?

There is no definative timeframe but from my experience the last third of Nov is the earliest ive ever seen an easterly deliver potent cold, by that i mean daytime temps struggling just above freezing at best with snow showers but to be honest i dont remember many easterlies in early November anyway because the Atlantic has usually been dominant, im sure the experts will say its certainly not impossible to get one to deliver the goods in early Nov.

Edited October 31, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Backtrack]

Thanks guys.