Northern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 2

[I Cumbria Marra I]

If we dont get snow from this setup then we may aswell just give up :lol:

[Liam J]

How bad is the storm likely to be. Any examples of past storms.

Each one is unique, this one has the added bonus of delivering potential blizzard conditions on the back edge! In terms of wind strength over Scotland then the Boxing day storm 1998 springs to mind. The track may alter slightly on future runs, the GFS 12z would produce 70-80mph gust over N parts of N England and around 60mph further south.

[Isolated Frost]

Wow 955mb in Nw scotland at 1500 thursday according to 18z gfs... wind gusts in western isles passing 90mph... strong cold front aswell (1500 uppers london 3c, manchester -3c). Interesting, very fun!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Each one is unique, this one has the added bonus of delivering potential blizzard conditions on the back edge! In terms of wind strength over Scotland then the Boxing day storm 1998 springs to mind. The track may alter slightly on future runs, the GFS 12z would produce 70-80mph gust over N parts of N England and around 60mph further south.

cool

[Backtrack]

BBC sticking their necks out by putting up an advisory warning for late thursday into friday - this could be a significant snow event. Uppers will be less marginal than yesterday and any trough feature should easily deliver snow down to very low levels and with very strong winds - ooh it could be a wild winters day.. last winter was devoid of any such days and its been ages since we've had a proper blizzard.

Still we are 48 hours from any event, so await to see what happend. Thursday night could be well and truly alive and the mods may well need to start a NW thread not just NE England.

How despondent many of us were this time last week - what a difference a few days make.

I'm looking forward to the prospects of a wonderful crisp cold winters day on Saturday , with light winds and hopefully some sunshine it could be a real beauty here in the Lakes - fingers crossed!

Back to the here and now we have heavy rain - suspect it is snowing above 300m but expecting alot of damage to the snow cover below 500m, hoping thursdays milder wet spell doesn't strip too much snow from the fells, ground above 750m should maintain a good cover..

Excellent

*stan smith voice* I knew it!

Ramp ramp ramp ramp!

[Snowstorm1]

BBC sticking their necks out by putting up an advisory warning for late thursday into friday - this could be a significant snow event. Uppers will be less marginal than yesterday and any trough feature should easily deliver snow down to very low levels and with very strong winds - ooh it could be a wild winters day.. last winter was devoid of any such days and its been ages since we've had a proper blizzard.

Still we are 48 hours from any event, so await to see what happend. Thursday night could be well and truly alive and the mods may well need to start a NW thread not just NE England.

How despondent many of us were this time last week - what a difference a few days make.

I'm looking forward to the prospects of a wonderful crisp cold winters day on Saturday , with light winds and hopefully some sunshine it could be a real beauty here in the Lakes - fingers crossed!

Back to the here and now we have heavy rain - suspect it is snowing above 300m but expecting alot of damage to the snow cover below 500m, hoping thursdays milder wet spell doesn't strip too much snow from the fells, ground above 750m should maintain a good cover..

This is ALL the NORTH of England thread mate including Northeast and Northwest - Showers for Northwest Guarenteed Pretty Much Now a Trough needed for the Northeast then everybody is happy!

[Andy_]

Should i bother asking if the North East will get any snow? I'll be ready to start excavating them Pennines if its going to be like this all month

[feb1991blizzard]

Anyone in the Oldham, Saddleworth. Ashton, Stalybridge area ready for radar watching, short range model watching, lamposting and ultimately ending up disappointed as band after band of PPN misses us and as soon as the wind veers WNW and it hits us, its rain round 2 this Thursday night? looks like it will miss us to the east this time though,

[Liam J]

cool

GFS 18z rolling out, much the same as the 12z a minor adjustment north. Exceptionally strong winds from N England northwards and 90-100mph over Scotland.

Track is pretty much set I imagine with good consistancy run to run.

[Aaron]

Should i bother asking if the North East will get any snow? I'll be ready to start excavating them Pennines if its going to be like this all month

The Pennines usually work in our favour, give the unlucky buggers west of the Pennines a chance!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

I'll be ready to start excavating them Pennines if its going to be like this all month

thats how we felt last year. bloody pennines.

[Andy_]

The Pennines usually work in our favour, give the unlucky buggers west of the Pennines a chance!

Well if there was no Pennines then we would get snow in a westerly, and they would get snow in an easterly This is of course never going to happen though LOL

[Backtrack]

Slightest of downgrades on the 18z regarding 850's.

Snow fest still on though.

Nvm, it's upgraded now. Lol.

[k19]

Meto warnings now showing snow for the west coast? Can't really see it snowing at high temperature on the coast though

[feb1991blizzard]

BBC sticking their necks out by putting up an advisory warning for late thursday into friday - this could be a significant snow event. Uppers will be less marginal than yesterday and any trough feature should easily deliver snow down to very low levels and with very strong winds - ooh it could be a wild winters day.. last winter was devoid of any such days and its been ages since we've had a proper blizzard.

Still we are 48 hours from any event, so await to see what happend. Thursday night could be well and truly alive and the mods may well need to start a NW thread not just NE England.

How despondent many of us were this time last week - what a difference a few days make.

I'm looking forward to the prospects of a wonderful crisp cold winters day on Saturday , with light winds and hopefully some sunshine it could be a real beauty here in the Lakes - fingers crossed!

Back to the here and now we have heavy rain - suspect it is snowing above 300m but expecting alot of damage to the snow cover below 500m, hoping thursdays milder wet spell doesn't strip too much snow from the fells, ground above 750m should maintain a good cover..

Just wondered what your take on who will get what this thursday and friday, ECM seems to push LP east quickly, UKMO / GFSlooks good though, it hangs on longer and its deeper plus there looks more of a Northerly component, its usual for me to favour the UKMO for likely verification but for once it actually looks the best evolution as well, if your looking for a pasting.

[Aaron]

Liverpool isn't even forecast to have an air frost on Thursday, Friday or Saturday. :lol:

[Liam J]

I wouldn't be surprised if The far north of England exceeded gusts of 80mph from this beast, those lines are insanely close together

Severe land gales over Cumbria on this chart.

Edited December 6, 2011 by Liam J

[Andy_]

Slightest of downgrades on the 18z regarding 850's.

Snow fest still on though.

Nvm, it's upgraded now. Lol.

This is all irrelevant if we all get destroyed by the storm though :winky: it seems to be getting worse on every run!

[NickyB]

Liverpool isn't even forecast to have an air frost on Thursday, Friday or Saturday. :lol:

Noooooo !!!! :-((((

[Backtrack]

This is all irrelevant if we all get destroyed by the storm though :winky: it seems to be getting worse on every run!

Keep upgrading it! I love the wind.

Noooooo !!!! :-((((

Don't pay attention to the computer generated met office forecasts, the only thing I follow are the warnings. We're forecast an airfrost on Friday

Edited December 6, 2011 by Backtrack

[Aaron]

So you follow the one you want to. Tsk tsk :winky:

[Andy_]

Keep upgrading it! I love the wind.

Yeah i actually don't mind the wind My roof tiles are very prone to flying off though hahah

[damianslaw]

Lots of action after weeks and weeks of nothing - almost too much to discuss. All eyes should be on the low pressure on Thursday - this is a developing storm and winds could very easily touch storm force in places- high ground definately not the place to be.

Friday it will all be about the snow. Too early to give details.

[Backtrack]

Yeah i actually don't mind the wind My roof tiles are very prone to flying off though hahah

Can just see your roof flying through your neighbours front window!!!

Lots of action after weeks and weeks of nothing - almost too much to discuss. All eyes should be on the low pressure on Thursday - this is a developing storm and winds could very easily touch storm force in places- high ground definately not the place to be.

Friday it will all be about the snow. Too early to give details.

Yep, most exciting week weather wise in a good while! Cannot wait to experience the winds and the snow.

[Snowstorm1]

Lots of action after weeks and weeks of nothing - almost too much to discuss. All eyes should be on the low pressure on Thursday - this is a developing storm and winds could very easily touch storm force in places- high ground definately not the place to be.

Friday it will all be about the snow. Too early to give details.

Aye yes Im hoping this can get downgraded this wind like! And Friday I agree there could be troughs anything amongst them winds and they could mean showers much more widespread we will see...