Northern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 2

[Backtrack]

60mph gusts + uppers of -7C + sub 525 DAM + heavy precipitation = Happy Backtrack = Happy NW England = Raging Snowstorm1.

Awesome!!

READY FOR SOME SNOW GUYS IN THE NW?

Bt what you reckon about the cold uppers due in a few hours, and on thursday onwards and the potentials?

Blizzards Thurs/Fri/

[cfallon]

Do you think us in manchester will get in on this snowstorm backtrack? The met office has us right on the edge!

Edited December 6, 2011 by cfallon

[Snowstorm1]

60mph gusts + uppers of -7C + sub 525 DAM + heavy precipitation = Happy Backtrack = Happy NW England = Raging Snowstorm1.

Awesome!!

READY FOR SOME SNOW GUYS IN THE NW?

Blizzards Thurs/Fri/

Ive still got half a chance a trough or something pops up and besides later in winter when I get an easterly and getting plastered in inches of snow ill be laughing then!

[Backtrack]

Do you think us in manchester will get in on this snowstorm backtrack? The met office has right on the edge!

Depends how far the precip can get inland, but Manchester always does well from this type of set up, so I'd say yes.

Ive still got half a chance a trough or something pops up and besides later in winter when I get an easterly and getting plastered in inches of snow ill be laughing then!

I hope you do get some on Thursday too. Mainly because it will stop you moaning to me on facebook. :lol:

[carl1980]

60mph gusts + uppers of -7C + sub 525 DAM + heavy precipitation = Happy Backtrack = Happy NW England = Raging Snowstorm1.

Awesome!!

READY FOR SOME SNOW GUYS IN THE NW?

Blizzards Thurs/Fri/

sounds good to me!:-)

[jpwild]

60mph gusts + uppers of -7C + sub 525 DAM + heavy precipitation = Happy Backtrack = Happy NW England = Raging Snowstorm1.

Awesome!!

READY FOR SOME SNOW GUYS IN THE NW?

Blizzards Thurs/Fri/

Now I am hyped!!!

As the Rock would say...

BRING IT!

[Liam J]

60mph gusts + uppers of -7C + sub 525 DAM + heavy precipitation = Happy Backtrack = Happy NW England = Raging Snowstorm1.

Awesome!!

READY FOR SOME SNOW GUYS IN THE NW?

Blizzards Thurs/Fri/

-7c 850's might be marginal for low lying areas near the west coast BT, don't start the party to soon!

-6c uppers last night didn't manage to produce snow here.

Edited December 6, 2011 by Liam J

[Snowstorm1]

Depends how far the precip can get inland, but Manchester always does well from this type of set up, so I'd say yes.

I hope you do get some on Thursday too. Mainly because it will stop you moaning to me on facebook. :lol:

LOL made me laugh that a nice covering for friday morning would be lovely ahhhh

[Isolated Frost]

60mph gusts + uppers of -7C + sub 525 DAM + heavy precipitation = Happy Backtrack = Happy NW England = Raging Snowstorm1.

Awesome!!

READY FOR SOME SNOW GUYS IN THE NW?

Blizzards Thurs/Fri/

Lol- RAMP RAMP RAMP

I'm happy with the current synoptics, I don't expect much snow-wise and don't really mind to be honest, plenty more potential.

With the stratospheric profile and the strong jet we could have been in permanent warm sector air, raging jet, pv strong around greenland(granted that is happening), the subtropical ridge aligning towards the continental landmass and the mild zonal express in charge, but we have managed cool zonality and topplers, interspersed with brief tropical maritime incursions. BRAVO, is how i'd analyse the situation... not too bothered about snow here, but good luck for all who want it...

-11c during the toppler for much of northern Scotland, even -9c/-10c at times in northern england so I would say it has a bit more oomph, probably fueled by that temp gradient with the jet moving air northwards.

[Backtrack]

-7c 850's might be marginal for low lying areas near the west coast BT, don't start the party to soon!

-6c uppers last night didn't manage to produce snow here.

Don't rain on my parade, Liam!

Nah, NNW flow will ensure the Irish Sea's influence doesn't have a say in my temperature. -7C isn't marginal for the coasts, especially with sub 525 DAM. I'm not worried.

Now I am hyped!!!

As the Rock would say...

BRING IT!

A nice streamer would leave Buxton cut off as usual :lol:

Your height guarantees snow for you.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Depends how far the precip can get inland, but Manchester always does well from this type of set up, so I'd say yes.

What do you think about convection and evaporative cooling.

[Liam J]

Don't rain on my parade, Liam!

Nah, NNW flow will ensure the Irish Sea's influence doesn't have a say in my temperature. -7C isn't marginal for the coasts, especially with sub 525 DAM. I'm not worried.

-7c is marginal for coastal areas, look what happened on the east coast last year or 09/10 when the uppers got to -6/-7c sleet and rain was reported and they were tearing their hair out!

I think TWS said while in the NE thread when the uppers get back below -8/-9c it will turn to snow again and settle to sea level.

Edited December 6, 2011 by Liam J

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

especially with sub 525 DAM. I'm not worried.

dont forget sub 516 Dam. More or less nailed on snow with that. Due points are due to go to -5 aswell.

[Backtrack]

-7c is marginal for coastal areas, look what happened on the east coast last year or 09/10 when the uppers got to -6/-7c sleet and rain was reported and they were tearing their hair out!

I don't sweat it. I'm not classed as coastal

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

-7c is marginal for coastal areas, look what happened on the east coast last year or 09/10 when the uppers got to -6/-7c sleet and rain was reported and they were tearing their hair out!

Technically were not costal. Well im not anyway

[Backtrack]

What do you think about convection and evaporative cooling.

This time they WILL be snow. The uppers are very supportive of that. And yes, as usual. Evaporative cooling will be evident, significant at times.

[Liam J]

dont forget sub 516 Dam. More or less nailed on snow with that. Due points are due to go to -5 aswell.

Sub 515 dam doesn't make it south of about Cumbria.

Edited December 6, 2011 by Liam J

[Aaron]

It's looking cold here, a maximum temperature of 2C on Saturday. Snow is looking unlikely though, darn North West winds..

[jpwild]

Don't rain on my parade, Liam!

Nah, NNW flow will ensure the Irish Sea's influence doesn't have a say in my temperature. -7C isn't marginal for the coasts, especially with sub 525 DAM. I'm not worried.

A nice streamer would leave Buxton cut off as usual :lol:

Your height guarantees snow for you.

I've had more hail than snow where I live Though, seeing the even higher tops they look like they've had a good coating.

I just hope whatever happens it gives us as few inches of real snow.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Sub 515 dam doesn't make it south of about Cumbria.

[jpwild]

Backtrack, when do you expect the snow event to start. Thursday evening or early hours Friday?

[Isolated Frost]

This time they WILL be snow. The uppers are very supportive of that. And yes, as usual. Evaporative cooling will be evident, significant at times.

You are using the scenario that -7c uppers will be likely, but this is based on one run... for example the 6z had -8c uppers as the coldest for ne england, but the 12z had -10c uppers as the coldest... I'd say under such an airflow, -7c uppers at sea level, -6c uppers at 100m, -5c at 300m, -4c at 500m, -3c at 700m and so on is most likely for snowfall.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

sorry thats 522 dam isnt it?

[Backtrack]

And for the same time. The GFS has a streamer/trough moving through (cba to check)

Dewpoints of 0C, air temps or 0/1C 515 DAM 60mph winds. That's a blizzard.

[Isolated Frost]

Backtrack, when do you expect the snow event to start. Thursday evening or early hours Friday?

I'm nae backtrack but -5c uppers hit around thursday 9pm/midnight for you and so is most likely conductive to snow... Friday and Saturday would also be quite snowy with some very powdery snow possible at times due to very cold dewpoints and upper air temps.