Atlantic Storms - 7th December 2011 Onwards

[ZONE 51]

Just to say that for the Southern areas its going to be a gale, along the coast expect a quite severe battering, not like the North with the full impact up there, but 50-60mph is likely to cause some problems for the South, the sea rough with massive waves i would imagine.

Im very concerned for those Northern areas.

[weatherobsuk]

Yikes..I just saw the GFS 12Z run had the low down to 945mb earlier aswell.

[ZONE 51]

1200hrs Thursday GFS-18z

Tighter/closer together the isobars the stronger the wind(for those that dont know)

Edited December 8, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Bluebreezer54]

Just to say that for the Southern areas its going to be a gale, along the coast expect a quite severe battering, not like the North with the full impact up there, but 50-60mph is likely to cause some problems for the South, the sea rough with massive waves i would imagine.

Im very concerned for those Northern areas.

Thanks for your very informative posts as always ESS. As you say, just gales here down south, and I echo your concerns for folk up north but this storm does seem to have received some decent coverage, and forewarned is forearmed.

Given my close affinity with Hastings ( wish I was down there for this ) Ive been checking on potential sea states etc for that area. A lot depends on timing of course but the high tides at 21:55 on Thursday and 10:05 on Friday could be interesting. Ive seen some projections of wave heights reaching 3 metres in the eastern English Channel as well during this time.

I would not be too suprised if gusts reached 60-65mph along exposed southern coasts during this spell, any thoughts on that ?

[syed2878]

morning every1. I know we love our storms and all types of wintery weather u guys up north and maybe the west be safe this is quite an stormy event.

[ZONE 51]

Here is a Storm Warning chart i have created

As always keep check of Netweather and the Met Office warnings/posts.. through Thursday and Friday as this Damaging Storm moves through.

My chart should be accurate enough to show where the strongest winds would be.

Edited December 8, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[The PIT]

Well this is a new one schools advised to close in Scotland. Unfortunately the advice came much to late for most schools to carry out. Schools on the eastern side of Scotland advised to close at lunch which could mean parents and kids stuck in traffic when the storm hits. I wonder if they've instructed lorry drivers to stay at base.

Ironically for us today so far is the quietest start to the week so far.

[weatherobsuk]

Convection firing off ahead of the warm front as a result of forcing from uppers, the NorthEast being the lucky ones this morning in getting the heavy rainfalls as a result.

Traffic Scotland cams showing heavy snow falling this morning http://trafficscotland.org/lev/#

[weatherobsuk]

Malin Shipping Forecast 0505UT:

West severe gale 9 to violent storm 11, occasionally hurricane force 12, veering north 6 to gale 8 later.

[Jayces]

Malin Shipping Forecast 0505UT:

West severe gale 9 to violent storm 11, occasionally hurricane force 12, veering north 6 to gale 8 later.

Eep, everyone be very careful.

We don't need pointless casualties where people think they can handle anything that mother nature can throw at them.

Being out in strong winds may seem like a good idea but it isn't the wind that causes the casualties it's the debris flying through the air at the same speed that do!

[Liam J]

A slight downgrade of wind speeds on the 00z GFS run by around 5mph or so, it may just be a fluctuation as the models get a real handle on this system during its onslaught over Northern Britain, wait for the 6z.

This will still be a noteable event with exceptionally severe gales over Scotland, N Ireland and the North of Northern England. Gusts of 80mph+ over parts of Scotland and the tip of N Ireland and gusts of 70-80mph perhaps more over N parts of England over Cumbria eastwards.

Meto have gusts of 75-82mph forecast for my town.

Edited December 8, 2011 by Liam J

[Guest]

If anything the 00z NMM takes the low slightly further north than other forecasts, worst of the winds on this look to be slightly north of the central belt:

Looks as if it could still be as bad as the 98 storm, which would be epic.

Edited December 8, 2011 by CatchMyDrift

[Isolated Frost]

Yep not much above 70mph and thats at 7pm here, so perhaps not as violent as expected- but they are still as bad for pretty much all of Scotland. Sustained gusts of 80-90mph at times even for lowland.

[Coast]

Maybe something convective mixed in with today's low?

ESTOFEX:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 08 Dec 2011 06:00 to Fri 09 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 07 Dec 2011 20:54

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the UK and North Sea region mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Two strong mid-level jet streaks will affect the forecast region. One will be present at the southern tip of a deepening trough that expands from the Balkans to western Turkey during the period. The second will cross the UK and is expected to extend across northern Germany and Poland at the end of the period. Both jet streaks are expected to be the main foci of severe convection.

DISCUSSION

UK and North Sea region

A intense low will move across the northern British Isles and the North Sea. Ahead of the cold front that is expected over the central UK at noon and over the eastern North Sea in the evening, a rather moist low-level air mass is predicted by latest numerical models. Low-level mixing ratios of 6-7 g/kg may be advected into most of the UK and the North Sea region. The cold front will move south-eastwards rather quickly and will mostly stay ahead of the strong jet streak axis. Nevertheless, lift will likely enable weak/shallow CAPE in the moist air mass. The strong lift along the cold front will likely lead to a narrow cold-frontal rain band. Thunderstorms seem to be rather unlikely, but are not ruled out, especially along the northern portions of the cold front, where the overlap of strong lift near the jet axis and low-level moisture will be most likely.

Given the very strong vertical wind shear and favourably veering profiles ahead of the cold front, tornadoes are not ruled out. Additionally, severe wind gusts are likely with 35 m/s winds at 850 hPa.

In the wake of the cold front, a strong sting jet is indicated by latest models. Although showers and thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of this jet, their contribution to severe wind gusts near the surface is not expected to be significant. Wind gusts in excess of 40 m/s will be well possible even when deep moist convection is absent.

SkyWarn update:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING - PDS #067

**PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION**

ISSUED: 1200UTC WEDNESDAY 7TH DECEMBER 2011 (GJ/SM/RB)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING - PDS FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

WESTERN ISLES ORKNEY & SHETLAND HIGHLANDS MORAYSHIRE ABERDEENSHIRE ANGUS & DUNDEE STIRLINGSHIRE

ARGYLL & BUTE CENTRAL BELT COUNTIES OF SCOTLAND FIFE DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY BORDERS CUMBRIA

NORTHUMBERLAND TYNE & WEAR COUNTY DURHAM COUNTY LONDONDERRY COUNTY ANTRIM

IN EFFECT FROM 1200UTC THURSDAY 8TH UNTIL 0600UTC FRIDAY 9TH DECEMBER 2011

RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW SYSTEM CROSSING SCOTLAND, WITH POTENTIAL STING JET AND SEVERE GALES

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION; EXTREMELY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGIONS INDICATED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WARNING INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

SEVERE GALES...STRONGER GUSTS...DAMAGING GUSTS...BLIZZARDS

DISCUSSION:

PLEASE REFER TO SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #66 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW CROSSES SCOTLAND, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP WINDFIELD IN EXCESS OF 100MPH TO BE BROUGHT TO SURFACE WITHIN A MEAN WIND FLOW OF 70MPH. GUSTS WILL BE LONG-PERIOD AND POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 90MPH, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGH GROUND AND EXPOSED AREAS FURTHER EAST. THESE WINDS POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF DAMAGE TO PROPERTY, DISRUPTION TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND A RISK OF INJURY. FROM 6PM PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW GENERATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, REDUCING VISIBILITY AND DISRUPTING TRAVEL. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

First pressure chart is at 12am and the second is at 3PM...Stay safe everybody!!!

[Snow and storms]

Looks as though the very north east of Scotland is going to get hit hardest after the storm passes over the UK with Met office predicting 97mph gusts for Kirckwall at 21:00

[Coast]

I'm looking at Tornado possibilities that may be confused with 'standard' high wind events:

Helicity seems to be centred on East Anglia up through the Humber:

No doubt about the gusts though:

Or the rain!

Low chances really, but keep an eye out

[Liam J]

Very strong winds battering NW/W Ireland now gusting 70-80mph.

XC weather uses GFS data for the site forecasts and the wind speeds have already exceeded some of the predicted speeds made by the GFS, I did mention yesterday that speeds do normally get underestimated in such situations as the one that is developing currently.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Latest forecast update on the Meto looks like I can expect gusts of 70-80mph from midday to 9pm, so rather a prolonged spell of severe gales.

Edited December 8, 2011 by Liam J

[Jane Louise]

Torro have just issued their warning!

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 08:50GMT on Thursday 8th December 2011

Valid from/until: 08:50GMT - 21:00GMT on Thursday 8th December 2011 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Great Britain

N Ireland

Much of Eire

THREATS

Tornadoes; convective wind gusts 50-70mph, up to 90mph in Scotland (100mph possible but not necessarily associated with convection); isolated CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Intense low pressure area will pass just to the north of Scotland today, with an active cold front surging south-eastwards. The storm has undergone explosive cyclogenesis, and there is evidence of a sting jet on satellite imagery. This may move into portions of Scotland today.

Intense lifting where the dry slot is intersecting the front over western Scotland has allowed a few thunderstorms to develop.

A few tornadoes and strong wind gusts are expected to accompany the front as it moves south-eastwards. In addition, across Scotland, very high wind gusts are expected in association with both the front and the intense wind field associated with the low. Gusts may reach 100mph in association with the sting jet.

Forecaster: RPK

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

[Coast]

Whilst the Scotland and Northern England look to get the full force of it, I wouldn't rule out some events for lower down the country and as shown in the helicity chart above, East Anglia seems to be highlighted. The following from the Press Association picks that area out for 60mph gusts too:

Schools are expected to shut across Scotland as Britain braces itself for winds of up to 100mph. Ministers have urged councils in west, central and southern Scotland to close schools after advice from police and the Met Office. Key travel routes are likely to be closed and severe gales could lead police to advise against all travel, the Scottish Government said.

The Met Office issued its highest - red alert - warning for winds of at least 75mph in Scotland between 3pm and 6pm today, while strong gales could hit the extreme west of the country from 7am. Although Scotland will bear the brunt of the bad weather, other parts of the UK could also be affected by strong winds.

Lindsay Dovey, a forecaster with MeteoGroup, the weather division of the Press Association, said: "There will be gusts of 100mph in north-west Scotland and over high ground. Gusts of up to 70mph are expected in northern England and north-west Wales. "Across central England and East Anglia, we'll have gusts of 55 to 60mph, and up to 55mph in the south of the UK."

She said temperatures would range between 7C, in Scotland, and 13C, in the south of Britain, but added: "It will feel much colder because of the wind." After a meeting of its resilience committee on Wednesday night, the Scottish Government said police may raise their warning to advise against travel altogether. The government said the level of travel warning was "unprecedented for high wind situations".

Assistant Chief Constable Allan Moffatt from the Association of Chief Police Officers (Scotland) said it was likely that some or all of the major bridges would be closed. The Highways Agency advised drivers in the north of England to check the weather forecast and road conditions before they travel today.

[Liam J]

Gusts in excess of 70mph now affecting the Western Isles.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited December 8, 2011 by Liam J

[shedhead]

Gusts in excess of 70mph now affecting the Western Isles.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Not sure Tiree counts Liam... No arguing with Aberdaron and Capil Curig at 72 and 68mph respectively tho... N Wales is a long way south to be getting gusts of these velocities already.

Edited December 8, 2011 by shedhead

[Coast]

With all the atrocious conditons on the ground, spare a thought for people trying to fly today:

http://aviationweath.../iffdp/6443.txt

SEV TURB = Severe Turbulance

[BornFromTheVoid]

Gust of 89.8mph at Malin Head a short while ago. http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

[Liam J]

Not sure Tiree counts Liam... No arguing with Aberdaron and Capil Curig at 72 and 68mph respectively tho... N Wales is a long way south to be getting gusts of these velocities already.

Aberdaron and Capil Curig are noteable areas that see wind funnelling creating very strong winds, much higer than surrounding areas and quite common.

Edited December 8, 2011 by Liam J