Atlantic Storms - 7th December 2011 Onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Im kinda glad that we are out of the way of this in the South..Near Christmas and all and in a recession, it's the last thing we need is to pay for damage to our houses and maybe even loose some of our major things we take for granted in life..Stay safe everybody and don't wish for stuff and regret it....

Edited December 7, 2011 by Surrey

[Marie]

Just heard on the news that a council in scotland has decided to close all its schools at lunch time tomorrow so the kids can get home safe.

[Maitland]

Stirlingshire have closed their schools at 12.30pm as have Renfrewshire. Our local primary is 300 yards away so that isn't really an issue but my eldest is at Secondary 10 miles away and the Perthshire schools are still shown open all day. She has been told to get the bus back at 1.05pm if the schools are to be kept open until 4pm.

Looking at the weather charts we are to expect gusts in excess of 70mph with gusts 80 + just south of here. We still have a couple of inches of compacted snow outside that has now iced over and I am hoping that these winds aren't in conjunction with heavy snow. We are forecast some snow this evening but it looks as though the winds may bring rain later on Thursday afternoon.

We are not unused to storms here in Scotland but this certainly has the potential to cause some damage and living on the edge of some woods here I am sure we will have some significant tree damage. I may not have to buy anymore wood for the stove if things turn out as the weather man predicts !!

M...

[ANYWEATHER]

Its gonna be nasty over ground tommorow, would not want to be out at sea, with wave heights between 10ft and potentially more than 30ft over the worst hit areas.... :smilz38:

[Liam J]

Latest satellite image, Classic hammer head cloud formation signifying a rapidly deepening depression undergoing bombogenesis or a 'bombing low'

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

Inshore waters forecast, storm 10 to perhaps violent storm force 11!! over the North Irish sea, Coastal areas of SW Scotland and N Ireland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/inshore_forecast.html#GreatOrmeHeadtotheMullofGalloway

Edited December 7, 2011 by Liam J

[tinybill]

Latest satellite image, Classic hammer head cloud formation signifying a rapidly deepening depression undergoing bombogenesis or a 'bombing low'

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

this could be as worse when the east coast got hit by the great storm

[Liam J]

this could be as worse when the east coast got hit by the great storm

Doesn't sound to good! I do think the wind speeds are being played down, gusts of 100mph+ will be felt somewhere tomorrow I'm sure, but it may be a location with no weather station for obvservations. Serious situation developing.

[knocker]

The 1800 Atlantic chart and midday 300mb wind speeds.

[NickyB]

Would anyone be able to hazard a guess as to what time (ish) the North Wales area may experience their worst of the wind tomorrow?

[aggy]

I wonder if this is going to be on the same scale as the boxing day storm in 98, or worse?

i was thinking that 105mph is i recall, very scary night that was

[Mesosphere]

never have i seen such conditions in the Forth shipping area :o

"Severe gale force 9 now decreased gale force 8, backing southerly and increasing violent storm force 11 later"

[rossco89]

i was thinking that 105mph is i recall, very scary night that was

I think its most certainly possible. I think the 105mph was recorded at Prestwick where there were some planes flipped over, but there were higher gusts farther inland and higher up.

From the met office the highest gusts around Prestwick is 86mph, which seems to be the highest they give for Ayrshire, but as prestwick is right on the coast Id say the gust will be higher still than that.

[Chris D]

Would anyone be able to hazard a guess as to what time (ish) the North Wales area may experience their worst of the wind tomorrow?

About 6pm ish. Your probably talking gusts to around 55-65mph with 70-75mph on the hills across N Wales.

Edited December 7, 2011 by chris93

[NickyB]

About 6pm ish. Your probably talking gusts to around 55-65mph with 70-75mph on the hills across N Wales.

Thanks Chris

[ANYWEATHER]

Would anyone be able to hazard a guess as to what time (ish) the North Wales area may experience their worst of the wind tomorrow?

Well Black Pool Tower might have some high wind readings later tomorrow! As North Wales is Not that far from There!

[aggy]

I think its most certainly possible. I think the 105mph was recorded at Prestwick where there were some planes flipped over, but there were higher gusts farther inland and higher up.

From the met office the highest gusts around Prestwick is 86mph, which seems to be the highest they give for Ayrshire, but as prestwick is right on the coast Id say the gust will be higher still than that.

yeah it was a mess. wait and see i guess. a bit diffrent as people, kids etc are still going to be out and about!!!!

[wimblettben]

It looks like even us down the Southwest will see gusts of around 50mph to 60mph tomorrow which is pretty strong for us!

But of course Scotland and more Northern areas will be getting the real deal with inland gusts of 70mph to 80mph! I would imagine that this storm will be worse then the May storm that happened earlier this year.

Structural damage will be probably widespread across Scotland.

[snowlover2009]

I wonder if this is going to be on the same scale as the boxing day storm in 98, or worse?

This worrying me, the storm looks stronger than the boxing day storm, although I was too young to remember, I was 6, here it is:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119981227.gif

It is going to be a very dangerous day tomorrow and tomorrow evening/late, very.

I expect this to take centre stage in the media.

[Jane Louise]

A level 1 from our friends at Estofex.

Batten down the hatches folks and take care.

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 08 Dec 2011 06:00 to Fri 09 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 07 Dec 2011 20:54

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the UK and North Sea region mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Two strong mid-level jet streaks will affect the forecast region. One will be present at the southern tip of a deepening trough that expands from the Balkans to western Turkey during the period. The second will cross the UK and is expected to extend across northern Germany and Poland at the end of the period. Both jet streaks are expected to be the main foci of severe convection.

DISCUSSION

UK and North Sea region

A intense low will move across the northern British Isles and the North Sea. Ahead of the cold front that is expected over the central UK at noon and over the eastern North Sea in the evening, a rather moist low-level air mass is predicted by latest numerical models. Low-level mixing ratios of 6-7 g/kg may be advected into most of the UK and the North Sea region. The cold front will move south-eastwards rather quickly and will mostly stay ahead of the strong jet streak axis. Nevertheless, lift will likely enable weak/shallow CAPE in the moist air mass. The strong lift along the cold front will likely lead to a narrow cold-frontal rain band. Thunderstorms seem to be rather unlikely, but are not ruled out, especially along the northern portions of the cold front, where the overlap of strong lift near the jet axis and low-level moisture will be most likely.

Given the very strong vertical wind shear and favourably veering profiles ahead of the cold front, tornadoes are not ruled out. Additionally, severe wind gusts are likely with 35 m/s winds at 850 hPa.

In the wake of the cold front, a strong sting jet is indicated by latest models. Although showers and thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of this jet, their contribution to severe wind gusts near the surface is not expected to be significant. Wind gusts in excess of 40 m/s will be well possible even when deep moist convection is absent.

http://www.estofex.org/

[Uncle_Barty]

Latest satellite image, Classic hammer head cloud formation signifying a rapidly deepening depression undergoing bombogenesis or a 'bombing low'

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

Just looked at a WV image and there is a very dark area to the rear of the low.. indicates dry rapidly descending air which may lead to a sting jet scenario.

Good write-up on such a scenario here:

http://www.eots.co.uk/reports/bomb/bomb01.htm

[rossco89]

This worrying me, the storm looks stronger than the boxing day storm, although I was too young to remember, I was 6, here it is:

http://www.wetterzen...00119981227.gif

It is going to be a very dangerous day tomorrow and tomorrow evening/late, very.

I expect this to take centre stage in the media.

If it is worse, then OH dear is all I can say!! Even if its on the same level.

[aggy]

can we compare charts for 98 and tom ?

[Kiwi]

Just looked at a WV image and there is a very dark area to the rear of the low.. indicates dry rapidly descending air which may lead to a sting jet scenario.

The sting jet scenario sounds nasty! and Estofex also refer to this.

and apparently likely to lead to particularly strong winds around southern flank of the low ....., are we talking southern Scotland or northern England or even further south?

[Cloud 10]

Latest satellite pic.

[Liam J]

18z GFS same as the 12z with the track of the storm, severe gales battering northern and western Britain from the word go in the morning, increasing to storm force over N Ireland, Scotland And N England after midday. Get ready folks!

Edited December 7, 2011 by Liam J