The Far North Of England Regional Discussion

[Alex95]

I would think that above 350m there has been a lot of snow today, temperatures at 2-3c at sea level, around 1-2c at 250m, so dew points will be lingering around -1c/0c around 300/400m.

Another good day for the pennines ski resorts, but rain and very mild condtions should melt snow even at the tops by friday.

We travelled to Penrith today via Alston, and even on the way over Hartside at 600m it was 1C, raining, and the snow seemed to be receding.

[JP1972]

Well certainly no more snow on the horizon for some time if the models are to be believed.

[Snowstorm1]

Reckon New Year Be A Good Bet

[Thundery wintry showers]

Temperatures have shot up in the wake of the frontal system, currently 6.1C at Cleadon with the last of the ice cover disappearing. I agree that nothing snowy is likely until at least the New Year- these SW'ly patterns aren't quite as cut and dried as Ian Brown often suggests, but I can't see any major changes happening for at least another 5-7 days from where we get to on Christmas Day.

[Terminal Moraine]

Starting to rise . -0.9°C after a low of -1.6°C earlier on.

Does everyone who reports on here have a screened/properly positioned sensor?

The short answer to that, Nick, is no, people just put them where they can within the limitations of their yards or gardens, or where they're most convenient.

Many people can't afford expensive systems and have all the sensors in an integrated system so, to get the best from the anemometer, everything is mounted on a pole or on the chimmney thereby compromising the temperature readings and even more so the rainfall data.

Some have sensors which are exposed to direct sunlight during part of the day, or to a considerable amount of secondary radiation from fences, buildings, tarmac etc so all in all caution is required when comparing readings between sites.

[JP1972]

Temperatures have shot up in the wake of the frontal system, currently 6.1C at Cleadon with the last of the ice cover disappearing. I agree that nothing snowy is likely until at least the New Year- these SW'ly patterns aren't quite as cut and dried as Ian Brown often suggests, but I can't see any major changes happening for at least another 5-7 days from where we get to on Christmas Day.

I think Christmas will take most peoples minds off the fact that the weather won't be a seasonal as we'd all like!

To be honest I get a bit sick of Ian Brown's posts, not because he ramps up mild weather but seems to forever paint an OTT picture of what may or may not happen!

Anyway, a milder Christmas will at least allow us to ease up on the heating bills for a little while.

[damianslaw]

Just experienced a lovely weekend's weather in the NE. Travelling over on Thursday eve I was greeted with a widespread frost with temps below 0 degrees on arrival at 9pm.. very seasonal. Walking hadrians wall between bardon mill and haltwhistle on Friday was made memorable by the very heavy snow showers - superb.. Sat and Sunday were beautiful sunny days with frost lingering. However, my return to the lakes today was greeted by gloomy foggy raw conditions with a thawing of the snow at shap summit - rather depressing and a far cry from my last 2 annual return trips last year and in 2009 on the last monday before christmas - last year the temp remained firmly below 0 degrees, in 2009 I arrived back in a snowstorm - the night of the 21st dec 2009 being very memorable for the snow.

Still it was a wintry seasonal weekend - shame christmas couldn't have arrived a week earlier this year..

[Isolated Frost]

Hopefully this mild spell can add 1c or so onto the north sea sst's. The warmer the better, even if it does mean modification in the future, more convection is always a plus. Right now sea temps on the ne coast are 9c, around 8c from a cooler swell from e anglia ne'wards, so hopefully by new years day, it's closer to 10c. Remember that roughly 13c difference between sst's and 850's promote some convection, a 15c difference usually mean more moderate precipitation and 18c+ means very heavy precipitation usually.

That means that right now, -3c/-4c uppers would give SOME precipitation to the north east from a ne/e wind, mainly rain, but perhaps sleet and snow on high ground. I guess that is rather promising, here's hoping for some mild weather to bubble up the sea, but not to mild so we don't have large modification when we do get continental winds.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Although higher SSTs can promote more convection, I think in eastern Scotland and NE England this is more than offset by the fact that lower SSTs mean less modification of our cold airmasses. The "easterly" Februarys of 1947 and 1963, both associated with very low SSTs in the North Sea, both produced a lot of convection over the North Sea at times, with monthly snowfall totals of 70-80mm at Durham University Observatory. Even February 1986, which had a higher emphasis on high pressure and dull dry weather, produced 30-40mm. At the other extreme, during the winter of 2006/07 the high SSTs in the North Sea resulted in even 850hPa temperatures of -10C producing marginal temperatures for snow, and on the 22nd January (with a NE'ly and 850hPa values of around -7C) I registered a max of 7.5C at Cleadon, with Durham Observatory not far behind at 7.3C.

Across East Anglia and the southeast it is a very different story as easterly winds only travel across a small expanse of North Sea and thus higher SSTs are more important for the generation of convection. Hence the Februarys of 1947, 1963 and 1986 featured long runs of dull dry weather in those regions while eastern Scotland and north-east England had a greater emphasis on sunshine and snow showers.

The main issue that causes dull dry weather from easterlies in the North East is a lack of cold pooling at upper levels, evident not just from relatively high 850hPa temperatures but also relatively high 500hPa heights over the country. For instance during December 2002 the SSTs in the North Sea were relatively high for the time of year, but with 850hPa temperatures near 0C and 500hPa heights near 552 dam, the atmospheric profile ended up stable resulting in stratocumulus trapped under an inversion during a spell of easterly winds from the 6th-15th.

[Isolated Frost]

Although higher SSTs can promote more convection, I think in eastern Scotland and NE England this is more than offset by the fact that lower SSTs mean less modification of our cold airmasses. The "easterly" Februarys of 1947 and 1963, both associated with very low SSTs in the North Sea, both produced a lot of convection over the North Sea at times, with monthly snowfall totals of 70-80mm at Durham University Observatory. Even February 1986, which had a higher emphasis on high pressure and dull dry weather, produced 30-40mm. At the other extreme, during the winter of 2006/07 the high SSTs in the North Sea resulted in even 850hPa temperatures of -10C producing marginal temperatures for snow, and on the 22nd January (with a NE'ly and 850hPa values of around -7C) I registered a max of 7.5C at Cleadon, with Durham Observatory not far behind at 7.3C.

Across East Anglia and the southeast it is a very different story as easterly winds only travel across a small expanse of North Sea and thus higher SSTs are more important for the generation of convection. Hence the Februarys of 1947, 1963 and 1986 featured long runs of dull dry weather in those regions while eastern Scotland and north-east England had a greater emphasis on sunshine and snow showers.

The main issue that causes dull dry weather from easterlies in the North East is a lack of cold pooling at upper levels, evident not just from relatively high 850hPa temperatures but also relatively high 500hPa heights over the country. For instance during December 2002 the SSTs in the North Sea were relatively high for the time of year, but with 850hPa temperatures near 0C and 500hPa heights near 552 dam, the atmospheric profile ended up stable resulting in stratocumulus trapped under an inversion during a spell of easterly winds from the 6th-15th.

Indeed- a longer stretch of the north sea means we generally need colder sst's aswell. I'm wondering whether you received any precip on the 22nd of January 2007? Surely with -7c uppers and probably 8-10c sst's you managed some rain/sleet at least.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, quite a bit- there were rain/sleet showers during the early of the morning, and then a mix of rain, sleet and hail during the afternoon and early evening. There was a dusting of snow the following morning as winds backed northerly and snow showers clipped the east coast on occasion.

Oddly Cleadon got more snow than Durham during the 2006/07 winter because of three instances of snow showers hugging the east coast in northerly airstreams with the winds blowing parallel to the coastline, while when showers got as far west as Durham the onshore winds lifted temperatures too high for lying snow, even in many parts of County Durham.

[Snowstorm1]

Id rather keep the SSTS relatively low and take decent snowfalls (a bit smaller than with higher ones) without risking my snowcover due to marginality.

[Isolated Frost]

Id rather keep the SSTS relatively low and take decent snowfalls (a bit smaller than with higher ones) without risking my snowcover due to marginality.

We usually bottom out at around 5-6c in an ordinary winter regarding sst's and so we would usually require -8c/-9c uppers for precip (all snow) from an east/north east wind in late feb/march, but in a continental flow under normal air pressure we can usually get snow from -5c uppers (as long as we have any precip), even at sea level as there is less turbulence then there is off a maritime flow.

5c sst's and -5c uppers= some low cloud and snizzle, temps around 3c at south shields, 2c in newcastle, 1c in hexham

8c sst's and -5c uppers= light rain/snow at the coast with light snow inland, temps 3c at south shields, 1c in newcastle, 0c in hexham

10c sst's and -5c uppers= very marginal at the coast, perhaps mostly rain, but heavier snow inland, 4c at south shields, 1c in newcastle, -1c in hexham

15c sst's and -5c uppers= becoming rather marginal up to 15 miles inland due to very high sst's, heavy rain and sleet east of prudhoe/stanley, 5c at south shields, 3c in newcastle, 0c in hexham

[Snowstorm1]

Guessing for us Teessiders we'd prefer

8c sst's and -5c uppers= light rain/snow at the coast with light snow inland, temps 3c at south shields, 1c in newcastle, 0c in hexham

Edited December 20, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Snowstorm1]

Good Signs for January this morning but still long way off although the 2nd week In January keeps sticking in my mind....

[Isolated Frost]

A good night regarding local footy, the mackems win 3-2 and the toon lose 3-2, I guess that's the only major positive. Currently 11.3c and Newcastle Airport was at 11c (2150) and mostly cloudy.

A very mild night and upcoming day, here's hoping for some sunshine to brighten up most on here's pretty groggy moods I'd think.

[Snowstorm1]

Hopefully snow later next week to cheer us up eh but i have my doubts

[Andy_]

Well it's like being back in Summer 2011 today with a scorching 12C! Just need to await the Daily Mail printing photos of people sitting on beaches eating ice cream now and it'll be just like August again

Edited December 22, 2011 by Andy163

[Isolated Frost]

Well it's like being back in Summer 2011 today with a scorching 12C! Just need to await the Daily Mail printing photos of people sitting on beaches eating ice cream now and it'll be just like August again

Hahaha!

Indeed- but it's much more cloudy now, BKN i'd say. 12.4c though so it's a scorcher moment I guess

At 11:00 Durham was at 11.9c, here are the top temperatures of the last 10 years in December at Durham:

2010: 8.4c (11th)

2009: 10.6c (6th)

2008: 12.3c (21st)

2007: 13.6c (4th)

2006: 11.9c (11th)

2005: 12.7c (12th)

2004: 12.7c (23rd)

2003: 12.8c (6th)

2002: 11.1c (25th)

2001: 14.9c (1st)

Generally nothing too special about this mild spell then; but it's no 2010 for sure

[Andy_]

Hahaha!

Indeed- but it's much more cloudy now, BKN i'd say. 12.4c though so it's a scorcher moment I guess

Generally nothing too special about this mild spell then; but it's no 2010 for sure

It certainly doesn't feel like late December!

And 12C was a scorcher in Summer 2011 :winky: As opposed to the truly factual totally met office gathered Jarrow summer average of 8-11C

[Snowstorm1]

Thread has gone very quiet recently which is sad to see but expected Come on snow turn up!

[Cloud 10]

Yes,quite a balmy day in the NE today,warm enough for a trip to north shields!

[Isolated Frost]

Yes,quite a balmy day in the NE today,warm enough for a trip to north shields!

Oh, GOD NO- put it away!

Anyway, after a max of 13.2c we briefly dipped back down to 9.5c at around 1600, but have since rose again, currently 10.1c. Very mild.

[Cloud 10]

Oh, GOD NO- put it away!

Anyway, after a max of 13.2c we briefly dipped back down to 9.5c at around 1600, but have since rose again, currently 10.1c. Very mild.

Hopefully it won't be to long before we can have another SACCRA beach party like last year. :lol:

[damianslaw]

Naturally this thread will be very quiet in the coming days - christmas and lack of cold weather being the two factors, but I think this time next week it will become much more active again as prospects of snow and cold increase markedly again.