London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread

[yamkin]

Wow those are some hefty gusts. I went through 5 hurricanes in my years living in Florida and I can tell you that 100mph gusts are down right scary! Lets hope the wind warnings go and the snow risk increases!

Would you mind posting the link for that Yamkin, I can't seem navigate the MetO page properly for some unknown reason.

Hi Amanzi, The observations are my own and I still go for snow and more severe winds than what the MetO are forecasting.

In response to the Severe Storm Alert Warning for this Friday, Croydon Council emergency division have put all staff on alert.

[kold weather]

NAE moves the system a touch NE of previous forecast, and this introduces severe gales into Kent. quite a narrow area of high winds but it is there and any slight shift north again will probably introduce it into Susswx and London as well...

NAE also gives SNOW for this area though it will NOT settle as conditions look very marginal...Still that will make conditions shockingly bad, possibly even close to blizzard in places...

[Beasterly]

This looks nice for everywhere in South East

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201112141200&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Edited December 14, 2011 by BreezeInTheEast

[snowbob]

Just a nice little dusting will do me. be nice to see the first years snowflakes for our region. Must say yamkin your posts always cheer me up mate.

[danm]

This looks nice for everywhere in South East

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Yep the latest NAE moves the system a little further north on Thursday night, which will give us heavy rain, but possibly snow in the Midlands, Wales and NW England, but as the system pulls away over the southern North Sea, the snow risk extends further south east to include our area. It's all going to be incredibly marginal as there isn't a sufficiently cold pool of air sitting over the UK. Snow will likely only fall to lower levels in the heavier precipitation and is unlikely to settle much at lower levels, particularly in urban areas. Higher ground could do quite well though.

[kold weather]

Very true Damn, also the NAE re-introduces severe glaes into Kent, NAE suggests 40kts sustained into SE Kent. its going to be a close call, even 30-50 miles further north will introduce that region of wind into the London area.

[Marie]

Im confused lol and it doesnt take much trust me.At this point in time how is it looking for tomorrow night and friday? gales snow rain?????? all of them i havent got a clue,can someone explain please

[Seasonal Trim]

I'm sorry, I'm quite new to all this. But, reading through the model and storm threads there seems to be little to get excited about in this region if that low tracks any further south. If it does then all we're going to get is a lot of rain and slight winds. From what I can understand it's very unlikely we will get any significant snowfall.

Please somebody tell me I'm wrong!

[Sungirl]

We had the merest hint of sleet at about 3.15 this afternoon! Encouraging but not enough

[danm]

I'm sorry, I'm quite new to all this. But, reading through the model and storm threads there seems to be little to get excited about in this region if that low tracks any further south. If it does then all we're going to get is a lot of rain and slight winds. From what I can understand it's very unlikely we will get any significant snowfall.

Please somebody tell me I'm wrong!

The further south the low tracks, the more likely we are to see snow and less strong winds. If it tracks further north, a greater area will experience damaging winds, and the more likely that we will see just heavy rain.

So if you want lighter winds and the possibility of some snow, then you want the low to track further south.

If you want very strong winds and heavy rain only, then you will want the low to track further north (although I can't imagine anyone will actually want this scenario!).

[Amanzi]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/wintry-and-unsettled

Judging by those graphics, it looks like heavy rain for us, or just wind and rain?

[vortex_liam]

http://www.metoffice...y-and-unsettled

Judging by those graphics, it looks like heavy rain for us, or just wind and rain?

TBH i think its dead right in the middle of there 2 tracks.

[snowbob]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/wintry-and-unsettled

Judging by those graphics, it looks like heavy rain for us, or just wind and rain?

[vortex_liam]

Also i would like to add, the 528 dam line is too far north. Although (and i hope) this will change. So most likely no snow! In my opinion.

[snowbob]

Must admit looks as though we are right on the wire with this but not according to the nae. Sorry prob completely wrong still learning

[Seasonal Trim]

If I was a betting man my money would be on no snow, slight wind and lots of rain for this weekend. Sorry to be a pessimist but this winter has been a bore fest for me so far. I need a snow fix to cheer me up.

[Amanzi]

Also i would like to add, the 528 dam line is too far north. Although (and i hope) this will change. So most likely no snow! In my opinion.

I am agreement with you on that one, I think it is going to be on the wrong side of marginal for us (my area anyway).

[weathergeek]

I'm still hanging on (by my fingernails, lol!) to the fact that nobody can still not say exactly what track the storm will take and if it could waver one way or the other - still hope that by hook or by crook we may see something??!! We all know how things can change suddenly and atm the changes are so sudden and without an exact forecast so we still don't know for sure....

If we don't get snow, we're gonna at least get rain or sleet and my worry is more for how that will freeze on Friday night and into Sat with the cold temps quickly following behind it?!

Geez, I'm becoming a bit addicted to this :o !!!

H.

[lewis028]

Friday looking very interesting, as the low moves further south, could see some snow Friday, still marginal, just dont want that low to move anymore north..

[Met4Cast]

Tonights NAE makes thinks a lot more interesting for our region

I have a feeling it maybe over doing it a little, though, any worthwhile snowfall likely to be confined to higher ground I would have thought, lower levels seeing a mixture of rain, sleet and wet snow with little accumulation.

[stun12]

Nice to see the regional forum is back. Hi All! Here's hoping for some intersting weather. Has been a very boring winter (after a very boring summer).

Hail here in Staplecross - second time today after it attacked me taking the dogs out this morning.

[final dest]

Nice bit of info from the Met Office. They are going for a more southern track. Nice little video at the bottom.

http://www.metoffice...y-and-unsettled

Edited December 14, 2011 by final dest

[Mike Storm]

yeah the video was good..

[chionomaniac]

Reports from friends of thunder lightning and big hail east of Brighton. Coast beware!

[vortex_liam]

Reports from friends of thunder lightning and big hail east of Brighton. Coast beware!

Its out there in the channel, its got a fair few strikes on it. Its heavy, shame probably not going to hit the mainland.