London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread

[Team Jo]

Hi Amanzi,

Try this http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Jo

[snow raven]

Things are pretty quiet here so far (there was more wind a couple of days ago during the storm that hit N England and Scotland) so chances are, I will sleep through this.

However, since a leaf falling on a South Eastern train track causes a good 2 hour delay, I will no doubt be able to report on the twig and leaf damage tomorrow morning, while waiting bored for a train to take me to London Town!!)

[coriolis]

extremely gusty here on the sussex coast, average wind speed at the mo is 21mph with a gust high of 53mph. Pressure down to 993hPa. Think the christmas lights hanging from the gutter outside might be all over the place in the morning!

[yamkin]

Things are pretty quiet here so far (there was more wind a couple of days ago during the storm that hit N England and Scotland) so chances are, I will sleep through this.

However, since a leaf falling on a South Eastern train track causes a good 2 hour delay, I will no doubt be able to report on the twig and leaf damage tomorrow morning, while waiting bored for a train to take me to London Town!!)

Bet they will say that it was the wrong type of rain and gales!! Wind has really picked up here with lashing rain. Gales could peak around midnight to 03:00 hrs. Just in case there is a power outage this week, I've got quite a lot bottled water, candles, torches etc.

Regarding Thursday night into Friday, we could have 970 - 975 mb wind gusts which is storm force. This could change by then.

Edited December 12, 2011 by yamkin

[snowbob]

Really getting quite nasty outside now not looking forward to thurs/fri then if it's gonna be alot worse than this obviously subject to change

[yamkin]

Here we go, wind gusts will peak between now and 03:00 hrs. Stay safe everyone.

[kold weather]

Winds are getting fairly blowy out there right now, already got the odd bin that has fallen down but given my location close to the Thames Esturary its not too surptising that the winds have picked up somewhat.

[Chris_19]

What kind of wind speeds are we looking at tonight during the peak - around the Gravesend area?

[yamkin]

What kind of wind speeds are we looking at tonight during the peak - around the Gravesend area?

About +/- 40 mph wind gusts. Exposed areas would record higher values. Are you ready for round two on Friday?

[Feeling Frosty]

Really Windy in Medway tonight, My friend lives down near Brighton and he said there taking a battering from the Wind.

Edited December 13, 2011 by Feeling Frosty

[Chris_19]

About +/- 40 mph wind gusts. Exposed areas would record higher values. Are you ready for round two on Friday?

100% hoping it comes off! Exciting week ahead.

[yamkin]

100% hoping it comes off! Exciting week ahead.

I know what you mean by exciting. The models will change later this week to show the much colder theme leading up to Xmas. There will be huge public transport delays in London in a few hours time. Wrong type of gales, rain....................!! Bed Time for me. Take care.

[Team Jo]

Hi folks, everyone still in one piece? I retired about onc- one thirty and slept through everything else...

Have a tree down in the road adjacent to me, some garden furniture thrown about downstairs, but at the moment damage seems minimal.

Let's see what today brings!

[Tom Montalbano]

Big crack of thunder about 15 mins ago and very squally with it, here in London SE12.

Regards,

Tom.

[abruzzi spur]

Morning all, have just heroically dealt with last night's damage and picked up the blown over plant pot and chair. Oddly these 2 items were in a pretty sheltered spot in the garden so I wonder if there was some funnelling of the wind. Either that or it was a fox with wind rage, or a garden designer who had an issue with the layout....

Hope Nick F doesn't mind but I have copied and pasted his recent contribution to the model thread, which is very interesting for us down here in the North Downs(thanks Nick)

AS

Posted A minute ago

"Well, Exeter havimg a torrid time knowing where to put late Thurs/early Fri's low and as John says, MetO warnings rather vague. If the low tracks across Sern most counties a la GFS, then a real risk of some heavy snowfall across Wales The Midlands and perhaps the Chilterns, Salisbury Plain and N Downs on Friday. Any further north the snow risk across northern England and north Wales with some severe gales across southern counties of England. P45s for the senior forecasters at Exeter the way they are handling this so far!

A cold northwesterly over the w/e will see snow showers for favoured locations of the north and west including the Cheshire Gap, inalnd areas staying dry perhaps, though small features in the flow could bring sleet and snow inland."

[tinybill]

looking at the models this morning i think the south and east have to get ready we all know what happened when we got hit by the great storm this storm is looking very very nasty for our area

[snowbob]

I agree at the moment this storm is looking very nasty for us.

[Methuselah]

Thunder and white lightning here too, this morning, and a hoolie in the night. I'm a tad worried about events later this weeek, too...

[john pike]

hello all nice to see regionals back again just thought i would post these so you can see how hard these storms are to predict

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs;sess=

click on october 16th 1987

then october 17th 1987

if we saw these charts now i bet none of us would have guessed/predicted what happened then. i am not saying this will happen but i would not want to work for the met office at present interesting gfs chart for 16th shows how uncertain this is. following the fax charts will probably be the best way to follow this although the most accurate way will be to watch the satellites at the time.

Edited December 13, 2011 by john pike

[Gowon]

What a rollercoster of emotions it's been watching the models lately, one minute there's a storm on the horizon and now, there's possibility of snowfall for us Southerners

I hope it materialise, I've been getting a bit jealous reading about the snow up North :smilz38:

[Marie]

Could someone with more knowledge regarding the storm on thursday /friday explain to me what wind speeds we could be looking at if this was to pan out? thanks in advance :smilz38:

[flysurfer]

well i live on the coast here in kent, and last night i reckon 100mph gusts easily, i also lived lived on the coast in 87, littlestone-on-sea, its down on the romney marshes. now if we get any where near the wind speeds that night, we are in big trouble, im supposed to go to a funereal in the midlands on thursday, but im in two minds now, because, i dont want to leave my young family at home, worrying, that they will be ok.. oh and i supposed to be a pall bearer, and im not looking forward to that in 80 mph winds lol..

[WheresTheSnow]

Snow + wind, sounds good to me, hopefully the wind does'nt cause too much trouble depending on how reliable the latest charts are.

[Team Jo]

Well, although it's still bright outside, and the wind is less gusty carnage and more breezy, it's FREEZING outside. That wind has a proper bite to it. Temp at 6.5c, but the wind is taking it down a few pegs I would think!!! Doesn't look like we'll get too much in the way of showers this way, not until later this evening maybe.

Waiting with baited breath to see what pans out after the will it/won't it 'situation of Thursday evening, which has totally distracted me from all the cold and snow potential for next week. Talk about blindsided!

[Coast]

Could someone with more knowledge regarding the storm on thursday /friday explain to me what wind speeds we could be looking at if this was to pan out? thanks in advance :smilz38:

Well the first part to answer is your statement 'if it pans out' !!!! :lol:

Too far away still at the moment. By Thursday afternoon we may have a better idea but currently, from what I've been watching its North then South then North again with France , then SE England then France getting a battering.

I'm reasonably sure that the low is heading in this general direction but which side of the tail we fall on I'm not so sure. To the North of it and some areas could get a touch of white stuff, to the South big gales and rain in line with last night or worse.

Here's a couple of charts to ponder:

It went from quite an event earlier today to this at the moment, with hardly anything of note:

If we look at shear, France is set for huge potential for rotating stuff (funnels, tornadoes etc) of the like I haven't seen looking at these charts:

Likewise those convective gusts, Paris would likely loose the Eiffel Tower!!

I will stress this is one run of one model (GFS) and is only therefore a snapshot of one computer programs current calcs.