London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread

[Brightlight]

correction something wrong with my postcode on netweather forecast - just put in Brighton and Hove and it shows sleet and 1degree! No wonder my finger is not feeling on the pulse of whats going on - nevermind the experts having trouble

Normally I'm an "extreme" weather fan, but seeing as I'm flying out of Gatwick to Vegas on Friday I'm starting to get a dreadful feeling about things.

Don't know how accurate this is as it's often wind direction dependant, but think that 50knots + and airports start to close thier runways??

Ooops something is amiss with my signatures.......need to delve in to the software!!

Oh dear - that might be a dilemma, either grounded by the weather or a choppy ride, maybe.....hopefully you can hazard a better guess tomorrow

[Tom Montalbano]

Evening all fellow south-easterners.

Could get a little lively tomorrow night along the south coast (take note Marie!), GFS 18z has pulled that little shortwave slightly further north.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn301.png

Would expect some heavy rain and squally winds to come zipping through.

Still dont think we're quite out of the woods re. Thurs/Fridays low.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn541.png

An adjustment north by a mere 100 miles or so could see southern parts of our region take a bit of battering from some very strong winds and at 48 hours range it wouldnt be that much of a surprise if this low tracks that little bit further north. At the very least it looks very wet for the south of our area.

Regards,

Tom

Edited December 13, 2011 by TomSE20

[weathergeek]

Hi weathergeek, yup Im near the west Ewell Station, nice to see a fellow board member from my neck of the woods. I really am just hoping to see a few flakes, poor lamp post watching window needs cleaning first though!

Glad its not just me! My Windows need a good clean too - all the better to see the snow with my dear....or not!

Oooo the anticipation is so exciting (snow or storm) but also a little scary and doin my head in slightly!

Yamkin, hope you're right!

H.

[yamkin]

Heavy rain in the South and extending into parts of the SE right now

No MetO alert warning for this. There should be a warning in place.

Edited December 14, 2011 by yamkin

[chionomaniac]

Heavy rain in the South and extending into parts of the SE right now

No MetO alert warning for this. There should be a warning in place.

Yes after having no problem sleeping through the gales last night, the heavy rain has woken me up tonight!

The heaviest section looks to be just skimming the coast.

It looks active to the west though!

[ZONE 51]

Just to say the models have upgraded our storm potential for Thursday/Friday.

Please keep up to date with the warnings/chat.

There is the potential for a track that routes a dangerous storm right across our region, the potential is increasing, although it could move south again, but it appears to me that NAE/GFS 00z have this storm potential in the making.

[Coast]

A few nice flashes (inter-cloud) and thunder last night on the way home then an unexpected hails shower around 8.00pm. More on the way today?

[Purplepixii]

Oooh reasonable chance of thunderstorms today! Will try not to get my hopes up (but I can't help being a little optimistic)

[yamkin]

Just to say the models have upgraded our storm potential for Thursday/Friday.

Please keep up to date with the warnings/chat.

There is the potential for a track that routes a dangerous storm right across our region, the potential is increasing, although it could move south again, but it appears to me that NAE/GFS 00z have this storm potential in the making.

Hi ElectricSnowStorm, The MetO still have not updated their severe alerts system for the SE since yesterday afternoon. UKMO & GFS are showing the storm over the SE on Friday, so the MetO should be updating in about an hours time or so with severe alerts for the SE. I'm still expecting snow for a time as well.

[chionomaniac]

A few nice flashes (inter-cloud) and thunder last night on the way home then an unexpected hails shower around 8.00pm. More on the way today?

I saw them from Preston Park Station. I even changed position to get a better look. And I was there long enough too.

[snowydayz]

I like it when "Our Yamkin" expects snow, I hope it's not all overnight followed my rain and gone before I wake up LOL.

Ramping!

[Coast]

I posted this one earlier from a site that I found pretty accurate last Winter:

Don't go getting all hot and bothered just yet......

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

[Coast]

Winter gales cause damage to property in South East

Published on Wednesday 14 December 2011 12:00

HIGH winds brought down trees and damaged properties on Monday night and the gales may return again tomorrow. Hayley Roberts, from Grasmere Close, had a lucky escape when a tree from her neighbour’s garden fell in the wind and missed her house by centimetres. Hayley said, “It came down at about midnight and there was this massive bang. “If it had been any closer it could have come through the bedroom window and killed me and my partner. And we have got two young children.†The tree has damaged Hayley’s fence, water feature, conservatory and satellite dish.

The Wish Tower cafe, which closed recently and needs a major refurbishment, also lost part of its roof in the stormy weather. The winds were coupled with heavy rainfall and firefighters were called out to a flooding problem in Compton Street at around 5.30pm. A spokesperson from East Sussex Fire and Rescue said there had been a number of weather-related call outs to dangerous structures across the county. However, while firefighters rushed out to incidents in Newhaven and Bexhil, the service reported less damage in Eastbourne. The Environment Agency was closely monitoring the region’s coastline as the Met Office predicted adverse weather around the coast.

Latest forecasts also predict that the unsettled weather will return at the end of this week with the possibility of further heavy rain and severe gales tomorrow and Friday. James Humphrys, Environment Agency area manager, said, “With stormy weather on the way towards the end of this week, our teams will continue to work hard to ensure we are prepared.†The rain could also lead to some localised flooding from run-off and drains unable to cope with the increased volumes of water. The Environment Agency is in close communication with local authorities and emergency services should there be any surface water flooding.

Mr Humphrys added, “People should be aware that there could be a lot of water around, so avoid trying to drive or walk through any flooding and be sensible when out and about, particularly around the coast. “Now is a good time for anyone who lives in an area vulnerable to flooding to think about the precautions they can take to protect their properties.â€

http://www.eastbourn..._east_1_3334458

[Team Jo]

Met O warnings have been updated folks

Snow included! but I don't think for our neck of the woods. Wind is still a feature.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

Wrap up warm! I am just waiting see what the BBC will say during the news.

[Amanzi]

As it stands for now, London according to the MetO has a 10% chance of seeing wintry showers. Not very hopeful. I am keeping an eye on this LP system, I don't think anyone knows exactly what it is going to do. Interesting times.

[WheresTheSnow]

Met O warnings have been updated folks

Snow included! but I don't think for our neck of the woods. Wind is still a feature.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Wrap up warm! I am just waiting see what the BBC will say during the news.

It shows the snowlfake animation for London + SE and East of England on the MetOffice now! But I dont know whether it means the whole of the London + SE or just parts, I still havent seen proper snow so it had better snow.

Haha just realised Jo you already have the link up.

Edited December 14, 2011 by WheresTheSnow

[Lauren]

We got 21mm of rain on Monday night/Tues morning.

oddly we lost a fence panel on the day of hurricane bawbag and there was a quite a lot of debris around. yet after this one on monday, no debris and no damage evn though winds were stronger.

i can only assume my house teleported to Scotland in the night.

[yamkin]

As it stands for now, London according to the MetO has a 10% chance of seeing wintry showers. Not very hopeful. I am keeping an eye on this LP system, I don't think anyone knows exactly what it is going to do. Interesting times.

Friday 16^th December 2011 - AM

Wales/S/SW/SE will sustain severe gale force winds with gusts of +/- 80 mph in exposed areas.

Friday 16^th December 2011 - PM

S/SE/E will sustain Storm Force winds with gusts of +/- 100 mph in exposed areas. Snow showers.

[Heisenberg]

It shows the snowlfake animation for London + SE and East of England on the MetOffice now! But I dont know whether it means the whole of the London + SE or just parts, I still havent seen proper snow so it had better snow.

Haha just realised Jo you already have the link up.

I dont think its currently set to come as far down as us....but no one really knows even this close. Nowcast time me thinks. Over on the midlands thread they are getting all excited. Ive seen this so many times before, but I think caution is needed until closer to the time. Lets see what this afternoon/evenings mods throw up.

[abruzzi spur]

It shows the snowlfake animation for London + SE and East of England on the MetOffice now! But I dont know whether it means the whole of the London + SE or just parts, I still havent seen proper snow so it had better snow.

Haha just realised Jo you already have the link up.

Hi all

My reading of the recent MO alerts is that there are 2 elements for our region for early Friday:

1. Wind - this is for southernmost counties of our area, ie most of Kent, all of East and West Sussex, most of Hampshire and the southern half of Surrey. Again the uncertainty of track, and hence northern extent, is noted and it also mentions heavy rain (not snow). Coastal areas most at risk; and

2. Snow - this is for roughly Oxfordshire north-north eastwards and westwards, not much due east of there though. Sleet at lower levels is referred to.

Still lots more water (either in the form of rain or melted snow!) to flow under a lot more bridges before we know how this will pan out.

AS

[danm]

Hopefully this will track even further south than is being forecast - that way we miss the strongest winds and have an increased risk of snow. Here's hoping!

[Amanzi]

Friday 16^th December 2011 - AM

Wales/S/SW/SE will sustain severe gale force winds with gusts of +/- 80 mph in exposed areas.

Friday 16^th December 2011 - PM

S/SE/E will sustain Storm Force winds with gusts of +/- 100 mph in exposed areas. Snow showers.

Wow those are some hefty gusts. I went through 5 hurricanes in my years living in Florida and I can tell you that 100mph gusts are down right scary! Lets hope the wind warnings go and the snow risk increases!

Would you mind posting the link for that Yamkin, I can't seem navigate the MetO page properly for some unknown reason.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Amanzi

[Polar Low]

Hopefully this will track even further south than is being forecast - that way we miss the strongest winds and have an increased risk of snow. Here's hoping!

Latest runs that are just trickling out seem to suggest it may track slightly further North, waiting for the whole run though.

[abruzzi spur]

I have copied this from Lorenzo on the model thread, with thanks. An interesting watch and listen...

Linking in this post from the Atlantic Storms thread as it is entirely model related. Good find Mapantz.

Met Office Cheif forecaster seeing more consensus in the models and moving this into an Ice and snow event, I think they are being pretty definitive now.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2185079

AS

[abruzzi spur]

Hi all Found this from Lorenzo (thanks) on model thread, an interesting watch/listen.

Quote: "Linking in this post from the Atlantic Storms thread as it is entirely model related. Good find Mapantz. Met Office Cheif forecaster seeing more consensus in the models and moving this into an Ice and snow event, I think they are being pretty definitive now.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2185079

Edited December 14, 2011 by abruzzi spur