The South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[Winter Wurzel]

Afternoon guys everyone. (first post so please go easy on me!)

I've been a regular lurker on this site for the last 3 winters, I wish I hadn't found it as it's just to addictive for my liking! Love dipping between here and the Model Thread when there's cold and snow on the way.

I've got a very basic knowledge of weather and just starting to make head or tail of the charts from hanging around in here. Anyway I thought it was about time I got in on the fun.

I think for those of us below the M4, excluding maybe the highest ground elsewhere, tonight will be just out of our reach. We'll just have to wait until the new year for a stalling low when we have proper cold in place!

Good luck to the guys in our area still in the running for tonight.

WW

[Lynxus]

Afternoon guys everyone. (first post so please go easy on me!)

I've been a regular lurker on this site for the last 3 winters, I wish I hadn't found it as it's just to addictive for my liking! Love dipping between here and the Model Thread when there's cold and snow on the way.

I've got a very basic knowledge of weather and just starting to make head or tail of the charts from hanging around in here. Anyway I thought it was about time I got in on the fun.

I think for those of us below the M4, excluding maybe the highest ground elsewhere, tonight will be just out of our reach. We'll just have to wait until the new year for a stalling low when we have proper cold in place!

Good luck to the guys in our area still in the running for tonight.

WW

Hi, Welcome to the forum.

You may be lucky tomorrow. It all depends how much of this colder air really digs in.

Tbh, Im not expecting much from this at all. Even with orange warnings.

Its far too knife edge and the PPN will pass by quickly ( few hours )

So not only are temps ok ish.. Its gonna be VERY wet, With wet snow landing on mild ground.

[AWD]

I wish I could bank the 06z NAE! That is gert lush!

[Winter Wurzel]

Hi Lynxus,

Yes, as you said its VERY marginal. More often than not in these set-ups my location comes out on the wrong side of marginal!lol

You never no eh, I might be pleasantly surprised!

[Winter Wurzel]

Hi AWD,

Yes it is gurt lush!

The NAE was my best friend in Jan 10 when it threw up that snow event for us all out of nowhere (although in the end it wasn't as good as it could have been!)

Last year I remember it having large parts of our region in pink, then snow line moved north on later runs.

The local BBC have played down tonights snow potential, restricting it to the higher ground and the north fringe of our region (forest of dean, Cotswalds). I think they use the NAE with another model we don't see?

Still, the NAE12z will be out soon...

[Rich_Clements]

Ignoring the snow potential for a moment, the storm is now in the South West reaches, it looks very dark and wet on the Penzance web cams. http://www.cliffhotelpz.co.uk/html/webcam.html

[AWD]

Hi AWD,

Yes it is gurt lush!

The NAE was my best friend in Jan 10 when it threw up that snow event for us all out of nowhere (although in the end it wasn't as good as it could

have been!)

Last year I remember it having large parts of our region in pink, then snow line moved north on later runs.

The local BBC have played down tonights snow potential, restricting it to the higher ground and the north fringe of our region (forest of dean,

Cotswalds). I think they use the NAE with another model we don't see?

Still, the NAE12z will be out soon...

That's odd considering Ian F has been tweeting all day about possible distruption along the M4 corridor, and the NAE upgrading snow potential etc! See what he has to say on tonights Points West anyway!

12z will be out soon, so let's see what the latest is then! Gloucs and Wiltshire I think will be the places to be in the morning!

[Iceberg]

Hi AWD,

Yes it is gurt lush!

The NAE was my best friend in Jan 10 when it threw up that snow event for us all out of nowhere (although in the end it wasn't as good as it could have been!)

Last year I remember it having large parts of our region in pink, then snow line moved north on later runs.

The local BBC have played down tonights snow potential, restricting it to the higher ground and the north fringe of our region (forest of dean, Cotswalds). I think they use the NAE with another model we don't see?

Still, the NAE12z will be out soon...

Yes they use the UKV as well, which will have a better handle and where the heavy precip is likely to be located.

12Z NAE trickling out, with little change so far, maybe a touch colder air that the low comes into.

[MP-R]

A very prominent line of cirrus ahea of altostratus and stratocumulus beneath that moving in from the southwest.

Not holding out much hope for tonight/tomorrow. Though it would produce a snowfall on the same Friday in December as last year.

[Lynxus]

NAE is rolling out.

Looks like snow from midnight!

[AWD]

Oooh, the NAE looks better already! Keep it up please! Lol

[lfcdude]

NAE is rolling out.

Looks like snow from midnight!

I like that... well think i will give sleep a miss tonight see what happens

[Iceberg]

Yep NAE digs the colder air in quicker and pushes the snow further south by 20-30 miles from the previous run by 6am Friday.

Could well be some happy scenes when the sun comes up.

[Aceman]

had this little beauty pop up over from Radstock this morning 8am ish!

[Lynxus]

Really brings the cooler air south.

Northern areas i tink will start to see snow from 11pm ish

[Nights King]

NAE... bank! :yahoo:

enough said.

[AWD]

Yep NAE digs the colder air in quicker and pushes the snow further south by 20-30 miles from the previous run by 6am Friday.

Could well be some happy scenes when the sun comes up.

Is it plausible though Iceberg? The NAE has consistently upgraded the snow potential for our region over it's last few runs now! It's making me wary that it hasn't really got a handle on this yet!

Nevertheless, very good to see

[twister2005]

hey all,

not been on for a while, so we could see our first true snow fall tomorrow VERY excited, hopefully it will stick

[Iceberg]

Is it plausible though Iceberg? The NAE has consistently upgraded the snow potential for our region over it's last few runs now! It's making me wary that it hasn't really got a handle on this yet!

Nevertheless, very good to see

I think it is plausible, we have seen some howlers even by the NAE within the 24 hr time range, so definately a degree of now casting.

If you have the precip type NETW radar then the first signs of the cold air digging in at the NAE timeframe will be key. I have but will be fast asleep at midnight !. I am rather a lightweight unless the puppy dog wakes me up in the middle of the night.

[Wynn D Woo]

Anyone know how much the temperature is set to go up as the rain approaches? It is currently 4.7C and felt bitter while I was waiting in the playground for the kids to come out of school, just thinking if things start off cooler to begin with, whether it ups the snow potential at this low ASL!

[Smarty 81]

Really brings the cooler air south.

Northern areas i tink will start to see snow from 11pm ish

I'm happy then our prospects look good for tonight Lynxus,probably only a few cm's but who cares snow might be rare this winter?

[BristolBlizzard]

looks good for us

this chart from mm site .

[Andy Bown]

The local BBC have played down tonights snow potential, restricting it to the higher ground and the north fringe of our region (forest of dean, Cotswalds). I think they use the NAE with another model we don't see?

That's odd considering Ian F has been tweeting all day about possible distruption along the M4 corridor, and the NAE upgrading snow potential etc! See what he has to say on tonights Points West anyway!

That's because Jemma Cooper was on the lunchtime forecast and is very untechnical/knowledgeable in her forecasts, roll on Ian Fergusson at 18.50 for a proper, descriptive, knowledgeable and insightful forecast!

had this little beauty pop up over from Radstock this morning 8am ish!

Stunning, I was working outside in Trowbridge and could see a line of CBs to the West reflecting the rising sun.

[Frosty_wsm]

Latest weather forecast I just saw at 4.30 on the bbc news 24 channel showed the snow line way further south now, my location is in on the action according to that, be interesting to see what ian shows on the local forecast later.

[jethro]

This is what was issued to all employees by Somerset County Council earlier this afternoon:

Introduction

Yesterday SLACCU published a warning of high/gale force winds, rain turning to snow Thursday overnight and Friday morning. The Met Office has now downgraded its assessment/forecasts. The anticipated Atlantic Storm over Thursday night is now tracking further South through the English Channel. This has allowed a northerly airstream to track further south over the UK. At 1000 hrs this morning (Thursday) the Met Office issued a “Cold Weather Alert Level 2†which was cascaded at 1100 hrs.

We are still expecting to see severe weather across the Southwest of England tonight and tomorrow, and whilst it now seems almost certain that the strongest winds will affect France rather than us, there will still be plenty of rain and snow around across the southern half of England.

Severe Weather Avon & Somerset Area

Rain on and off during Thursday, with winds picking up and blowing from the Southeast during the evening. Wind speeds peaking at around midnight, but not likely to be strong enough by themselves to cause any significant impacts, but nevertheless a pretty foul evening to be out and about. After about 6am on Friday morning the rain will begin to turn to sleet and snow. At lower levels in Somerset it's most likely fall as sleet only, but the higher communities will probably see a little snow perhaps enough to cause some difficulties on roads in Mendips/Exmoor.

Snow is likely to be rather heavier in “Avon Area†and Wiltshire and will give more scope for disruption to travel networks again especially as it will coincide with the travel to work period. Large amounts of snow are not expected over Somerset although snow/slush may cause some minor disruption during the morning commute. By midday the snow will be clearing, and in most areas any snow on the ground will be thawing steadily. Friday night will be cold enough to mean an ice risk in some places.

Weekend weather is very unlikely to be disruptive...although there may be a few wintry showers around.

Severe Cold Weather Alert: Level 2 remains in force.