The South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[AWD]

well after that forecast.. im ok with it Wiltshire still in the game.. not looking so good towards somerset and Dorset tho.

I don't think Somerset and Dorset were ever in with a realistic chance anyway! It was promising, but is still open to change, as Ian said!

If I was in Gloucs or Wiltshire now I would be setting my alarm for an early

start tomorrow! Interesting times ahead!

The only thing that worries me a little is all that heavy rain before hand is going to make the ground very saturated and flooded, and for snow to settle, it's going to have to come down pretty hard and fast, IMO!

Edited December 14, 2011 by Active Weather Dude

[Nights King]

I don't think Somerset and Dorset were ever in with a realistic chance anyway! It was promising, but is still open to change, as Ian said!

If I was in Gloucs or Wiltshire now I would be setting my alarm for an early

start tomorrow! Interesting times ahead!

The only thing that worries me a little is all that heavy rain before hand is going to make the ground very saturated and flooded, and for snow to settle, it's going to have to come down pretty hard and fast, IMO!

There is still time for another slight southerly shift of this system I would have thought and if that happens far more of the region could join the party.

Just going to have to wait and see what next few runs bring for us.

I wouldnt worry about it laying too much as ppn should be fairly intense and bring surface temps down fairly rapid Imo

Edited December 14, 2011 by mullender83

[AWD]

Something to keep an eye on! Even just a slight shift south ( say 30miles ) would bring North Somerset and Bristol and Bath in with a chance!

I think you will be alright anyway, you have decent elevation on your side, so like today when the uppers weren't all that cold, I think your get a decent dusting of snow out of it!

[Nights King]

Something to keep an eye on! Even just a slight shift south ( say 30miles ) would bring North Somerset and Bristol and Bath in with a chance!

I think you will be alright anyway, you have decent elevation on your side, so like today when the uppers weren't all that cold, I think your get a decent dusting of snow out of it!

Yes its gonna be a nervous nail biting day though as it firms up and then if its further north ill do my usual well I might get lucky and set my alarm really early so i can see the rain!

Onto tonight though and that feature out to the west is bringing quite alot of heavy ppn into west country soon which might be abit wintry....

Oh dear I hope this is wrong...

Edited December 14, 2011 by mullender83

[Lynxus]

Yes its gonna be a nervous nail biting day though as it firms up and then if its further north ill do my usual well I might get lucky and set my alarm really early so i can see the rain!

Onto tonight though and that feature out to the west is bringing quite alot of heavy ppn into west country soon which might be abit wintry....

Oh dear I hope this is wrong...

Certainly possible from the current models.

Uppers are cold enough. ( Liek today )

[AWD]

That chart doesn't look right too me! How Devon and even Conwall get snow but it's rain in Somerset, Dorset and Wiltshire is a little odd!

I'm waiting for the 18z NAE and 18z GFS before I make an educated guess about tomorrow!

The potential is certainly there, especially the more north and elevated you are! Somewhere in our region I feel will get a nice suprise Friday!

[Rich_Clements]

Yes its gonna be a nervous nail biting day though as it firms up and then if its further north ill do my usual well I might get lucky and set my alarm really early so i can see the rain!

Onto tonight though and that feature out to the west is bringing quite alot of heavy ppn into west country soon which might be abit wintry....

Oh dear I hope this is wrong...

It seems to be little stars everywhere other than your location ................Your time will come

[Lynxus]

It seems to be little stars everywhere other than your location ................Your time will come

It will snow at Mullenders when he goes abroad.

[MP-R]

Yes its gonna be a nervous nail biting day though as it firms up and then if its further north ill do my usual well I might get lucky and set my alarm really early so i can see the rain!

Onto tonight though and that feature out to the west is bringing quite alot of heavy ppn into west country soon which might be abit wintry....

Oh dear I hope this is wrong...

That chart is nonsensical! Best to ignore it.

[Nights King]

It will snow at Mullenders when he goes abroad.

:blink:

I have not booked it yet because I was waiting for the ski resorts to get some snow! :lol:

Chart must be broken although I did nearly spit out my coffee when i looked and saw somerset.

[Paul T]

P10 on the Gfs ensembles has the low perfectly positioned, however the other 16+ have it further north! 3-9am could produce for Avon/glous going on today's output. Big 18z and 00z charts coming up. Personally I think it will be a nowcast event; from this time tomorrow we just need watch to see how the temps drop and how the lows position is tracking... I would imagine temps for much of the south west will be 5.5 to 8 this time tomorrow.

[gloucesterlad]

As well as anticipating Friday... has anyone got any thoughts on this development out to the West. This started out as a batch of showers before hitting Ireland and now has a vivid circulation to it. Will its momentum be reduced as it moves in land ? If not - snow on its northern edge ?

John in Quedgeley, Gloucester (where we even had wet snow today at 50 mtrs asl ..

[Paul T]

This is almost a shortwave of low pressure, i.e a weak system developing a kink in an otherwise pretty stright set up, these usually build more than expected and this one will kick some decent amounts of ppn into the south west, but the uppers are -1.5 to -2.0 so temps will be to high (risen to 5oC around here).

In my view, temps could drop in the heavier bursts and we could see wet snow above 200m at times, but i would be suprised if much more happens.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Paul T

[wimblettben]

Well in Shaftesbury school today I saw it snow outside around 9:00am in the mourning for a bit which was a pleasant suprise.

The lows position tomorrow will probably make a big difference to what we get here as we are to the far south of Wiltshire. I don't actually live in Shafesbury but just go there as that is where my school is.

[Lynxus]

This is almost a shortwave of low pressure, i.e a weak system developing a kink in an otherwise pretty stright set up, these usually build more than expected and this one will kick some decent amounts of ppn into the south west, but the uppers are -1.5 to -2.0 so temps will be to high (risen to 5oC around here).

In my view, temps could drop in the heavier bursts and we could see wet snow above 200m at times, but i would be suprised if much more happens.

It certainly is a shortwave.

Should of all but vanished once it gets near land..

[Paul T]

latest runs are looking like it may be further south?! ....

[Nights King]

This is almost a shortwave of low pressure, i.e a weak system developing a kink in an otherwise pretty stright set up, these usually build more than expected and this one will kick some decent amounts of ppn into the south west, but the uppers are -1.5 to -2.0 so temps will be to high (risen to 5oC around here).

In my view, temps could drop in the heavier bursts and we could see wet snow above 200m at times, but i would be suprised if much more happens.

Yes could be interesting I think laura tobin mentioned it alot earlier saying that they were keeping on eye on this small feature as it developed and she did say it might bring snow to some places even lower down in heavy pulses. Saying that the forecast is hazy as I wasnt always focusing totaly on it.

Current temperature here is 0.1c

latest runs are looking like it may be further south?! ....

[AWD]

18z NAE still not coming on board, and has the LP, and thus snow potential futher north than other models.

[Frosty_wsm]

latest runs are looking like it may be further south?! ....

yep that's what the 18z gfs is showing, according to what I've been reading in the model output thread, national bbc forecast at 9.30 showed snow way up to nothern england but I think the beeb are just covering all options, just in case.

[Lynxus]

I really dont think that shortwave will do anything other than rain.

The uppers are far too warm. The chance of snow IMO is reserved for tomorrow then the cooler 850's come in.

[Dorset_Weather]

Well I'm far to South for any snow event on Friday so I'm just hoping we get a slight North adjustment on the low pressure system on Thursday night, than I may get an interesting wind event.

Going to be some interesting model watching over the next 48h and I'll be reporting conditions at my location if things get interesting

[Lynxus]

18z NAE still not coming on board, and has the LP, and thus snow potential futher north than other models.

Yeah shame..

Tbh we are still far out in these situations so tomorrow will certainly be fun to watch..

When i say fun. I actually mean braincell killing nightmare chart watching.

[Frosty_wsm]

18z NAE still not coming on board, and has the LP, and thus snow potential futher north than other modes

Check the bottom right, that appears to be the 12z your posting and not the latest 18z

[Paul T]

Active weather dude, those arent the 18z by the way.

[AWD]

Check the bottom right, that appears to be the 12z your posting and not the latest 18z

Just noticed that, yet it is advertised as the 18z on Weather Online! Apologies